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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Im not into pattern matching or analogues but with the current set up regarding the PDO, solar activity appearing to drop again, and ENSO treading into weak nino territory would this not increase the odds of a colder than average winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Im not into pattern matching or analogues but with the current set up regarding the PDO, solar activity appearing to drop again, and ENSO treading into weak nino territory would this not increase the odds of a colder than average winter?

    and the QBO going into a  negative phase?

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

    and the QBO going into a  negative phase?

     

     

    I'd imagine the BBQ would also be going negative soon too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Let's be honest, the QBO, PDO and other stuff don't tell us anything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Gavin Partridge has done his JMA Friday video this now covers December currently JMA is looking similar to December last year, the December outlook starts 10 mins in if you want to skip the October and November outlook

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2Ur--U1a2Y#t=708

     

    Not to be taken seriously of course at this very early stage

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Early stages but the USA looks like going into deep freeze again this winter. Gavs weather vids so far is painting a positive nao. Think we will be seeing another wild wet winter this year. Especially if the USA is going to freeze again. Throwing Atlantic storms across out part of the world again.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I'd imagine the BBQ would also be going negative soon too.

    :laugh: My BBQ goes negative in October! (packed in shed)!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Last year was the only year since I moved (6 years) that I never saw a flake of snow, having had laying snow still around on Christmas day one year and enough to build a snowman and cause me trouble driving to work on others. Bubs wants snow, and i am going to scare it all away by buying winter clothes and make sure there is enough soup in the cupboard. The wind last winter was awful, so I won't be looking at any snow at least at the end of this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Last year was the only year since I moved (6 years) that I never saw a flake of snow, having had laying snow still around on Christmas day one year and enough to build a snowman and cause me trouble driving to work on others. Bubs wants snow, and i am going to scare it all away by buying winter clothes and make sure there is enough soup in the cupboard. The wind last winter was awful, so I won't be looking at any snow at least at the end of this year.

    Well America is forecast to have another bitter winter, this could mean another turnip of a winter for us! By turnip, I mean repeat of last year! How awful would that be! Poor Bubs! :help::cray:

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Let's be honest, the QBO, PDO and other stuff don't tell us anything.

    That is the most accurate post on this forum !!!

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    The jet stream is very high at the moment i think i would go for a mild winter although i wish we do have a cold winter, its still early days but for some reason i have a feeling that the jet stream as long with other factors will once again be a complete *** 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Just had a look at the met check six month outlook, which I

    Believe is produced by the gfs

    Yesterday for christmas day 1c and snow

    Today 12c and sunny

    All jff of course

    C.s

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    is that a pug cross beagle in your pic?

    hi ben

    yes it certainly is, he loves the snow too, love walking him

    Over the fields as the snow is falling, we are like to kids

    c.s

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    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    i dont blame you! i also love it!! im looking to get a pug cross french bulldog!

    Nothing better in the world than walking in falling snow. the world just becomes so peaceful -- love it!

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Nothing better in the world than walking in falling snow. the world just becomes so peaceful -- love it!

    My cat goes a bit mental when she sees snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Let's be honest, the QBO, PDO and other stuff don't tell us anything.

     

     

    That is the most accurate post on this forum !!!

    Not strictly true. In fact, far from it. It was no surprise that a strongly positive QBO last winter contributed to the stratospheric driving of the troposphere. But this was just one of many factors that assisted the poor winter (snow wise) that the UK endured. It may be too early to assess all of the ingredients in the mix for winter this year, but rest assured that already the ingredients that we do know are likely, are far better for something colder and drier! It is wrong to suggest that teleconnective drivers don't tell us anything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Just had a look at the met check six month outlook, which I

    Believe is produced by the gfs

    Yesterday for christmas day 1c and snow

    Today 12c and sunny

    All jff of course

    C.s

    Think that just shows how volatile long range forecasts can be that far out!

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Not strictly true. In fact, far from it. It was no surprise that a strongly positive QBO last winter contributed to the stratospheric driving of the troposphere. But this was just one of many factors that assisted the poor winter (snow wise) that the UK endured. It may be too early to assess all of the ingredients in the mix for winter this year, but rest assured that already the ingredients that we do know are likely, are far better for something colder and drier! It is wrong to suggest that teleconnective drivers don't tell us anything.

    The best forcast that the biggest world computers can give is at best vague,in the short term they can be quite accurate but long range forcasts are nothing more than guess's .They do not tell us anything??....That is correct for most of the time!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    The best forcast that the biggest world computers can give is at best vague,in the short term they can be quite accurate but long range forcasts are nothing more than guess's .They do not tell us anything??....That is correct for most of the time!!!!

    Nope, a guess is what I would do to predict the (random) lottery result. However, the atmosphere can have predictable and more reliable responses to set criteria. Granted that this may not occur every time, however more than often it does, so we are more likely to see set atmospheric conditions lead to these responses which increase probabilities of certain weather types prevailing at certain locations. That is why we look at the MJO for instance - these phases of tropical convection have been scientifically linked to coincide with a corresponding long wave wavelength pattern, which in turn can lead us to help forecast set pressure patterns across the hemispheres. Those who don't recognise this will always be far behind in forecasting abilities to those that do.

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Nope, a guess is what I would do to predict the (random) lottery result. However, the atmosphere can have predictable and more reliable responses to set criteria. Granted that this may not occur every time, however more than often it does, so we are more likely to see set atmospheric conditions lead to these responses which increase probabilities of certain weather types prevailing at certain locations. That is why we look at the MJO for instance - these phases of tropical convection have been scientifically linked to coincide with a corresponding long wave wavelength pattern, which in turn can lead us to help forecast set pressure patterns across the hemispheres. Those who don't recognise this will always be far behind in forecasting abilities to those that do.

    I guess I  am someone who  loves weather past and present but knows little of the science I will have to take your word for that but long range forcasts I seem to see are always very vague and who predicted last winter or the winter before or the august just gone !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I guess I  am someone who  loves weather past and present but knows little of the science I will have to take your word for that but long range forcasts I seem to see are always very vague and who predicted last winter or the winter before or the august just gone !!

    I guess that it is important to differentiate between those who use the known atmospheric states to help predict the what weather the winter will bring and those who hopecast or do just guess. It is early days yet, but the likes of Cohen et al, are really helping in longer range winter forecasting for the northern hemisphere!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)

    Well America is forecast to have another bitter winter, this could mean another turnip of a winter for us! By turnip, I mean repeat of last year! How awful would that be! Poor Bubs! :help::cray:

    Another cold winter in America doesn't mean it has to be the same as last time round. It's perfectly possible to get cold synoptics in both North America and Europe at the same time.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands

    Ben you do know right a strong jet at our latitude means a wet winter on the mild side?......The jet where it is now would be ideal for a blocked winter like 1962/63.

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