Early winter hopes and chat

[cheeky_monkey]

'09/'10

or 06/07

[cheese]

or 06/07

That reminds me.. January 2007 was the mildest January since 1989 here, with an average max of just over 10C. It's the only January in recent history to have an average maximum over 10C, in fact - only February has managed that otherwise.

Edited September 10, 2014 by cheese

[Weather-history]

Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.

[Yarmy]

Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.

 

Should be simple enough to do a rough check with the CET record. Average DJF for the past 115 years then list them in order of deviation from the mean. I'm guessing you'd get a normal distribution with a tendency for recent years to gather around the "ends".

 

I imagine their analysis is a bit more sophisticated than that.

 

Edit: Aebruary? Doh.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Yarmy

[Methuselah]

But 'extreme' doesn't necessarily mean cold and snowy...Exceptionally warm and wet would be equally extreme?

[Yarmy]

But 'extreme' doesn't necessarily mean cold and snowy...Exceptionally warm and wet would be equally extreme?

 

Where does it say otherwise?

[Methuselah]

Where does it say otherwise?

I was just saying!  

[Weather-history]

But 'extreme' doesn't necessarily mean cold and snowy...Exceptionally warm and wet would be equally extreme?

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says that effectively.

[ANYWEATHER]

Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.

Just like it was at the start of the mini-iceage back in the 1740s.....

[gsteruk]

As last winter was dreadfully uneventful I would have thought the media might be a bit less ready to predict Armageddon! Wonder if that'll be the case....

[Nights King]

Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.

 

So hopefully that means that we can expect 62 style winters at least once every decade..      

 

If we get an average couple of years they will produce a new study..

[hillbilly]

There are probably plenty of times in the last century that may not have been quite as extreme but close to quite that extreme if you look for them !

 

A period that comes to mind..the summers of 1975 and 1976 closely followed by the winter of 1979 the crazy april of 1981 and the December 1981[colder and much more snow than 2010 here] the summers of 1983 and 1984,november 1985[still the coldest for 60 years],February 1986[-1.1],april 1986[the coldest for a century],august 1986[the coldest for 60 years],jan 1987[coldest week in southern Britain]

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting little article in the Times today. It says winter weather has become more unstable with 5 of the most extreme winters in 115 years occurring since 2004.

"Winter weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild to extremely cold and snowy."

It says extreme weather more likely in December.

The study was by the Hadley Centre and the Universities of Sheffield and East Anglia.

 

 

The problem is that a few years of a certain weather type and they do a study, we haven't enough data yet on all the various drivers to make an informed decision, -PDO combined with -QBO, non exsistant solar activity and we will be looking at another 47 or 63 winter towards the end of this decade in my opinion but that doesn't mean we need an inquiry into it.

[MP-R]

I'm hoping for a stormy period in November and early December a la 2009 then the cold to take over mid-December. 2009/2010 really was the closest thing in recent times to a perfect winter - cold spells in every month.

[carinthian]

As last winter was dreadfully uneventful I would have thought the media might be a bit less ready to predict Armageddon! Wonder if that'll be the case....

Horrible winter for most of the UK, soggy, windy, mild, snowless and even frost less in places in the south. However, it is strange that some parts of the Scottish mountains retained good snow cover during the last winter and less than 1000km from the south coast of England we here in Carinthia state of Austria had the most snowfall since 1975 with nearly 3 metres depth of snowcover in my village.

[feb1991blizzard]

The fact remains that this earth has been around for thousands of billions of years, so 60 years, or 400 or so in terms of temperature and rainfall, is a drop in the ocean in terms of a sample size to come to conclusions about what may or may not happen climatologically over next 100 years or so.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyway getting back to winter forecasting, you can composite on Atlantic tripole on the NOAA website, does anyone know what value you should tap in as I have never heard of any index for this before?

Edited September 10, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[ukpaul]

As last winter was dreadfully uneventful I would have thought the media might be a bit less ready to predict Armageddon! Wonder if that'll be the case....

Uneventful?!?

 

It was the most 'Armageddon' like winter in living memory!

[lassie23]

Uneventful?!?

 

It was the most 'Armageddon' like winter in living memory!

Floods, gales, more floods, more goals, from October through until March! Sounds eventful to me!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think what we can say is that we will get some extreme weather of some kind.  Extreme weather can take all sorts of forms but what it needs is a Jetstream that is more generally south and very meridional, something we have seen increasingly so over last 5 years or so and if the solar slumber is to blame then something that is likely to continue and even intensify if SC25 is even quieter? 

What we get then is what I call 'rut' weather patterns.  We're currently in a 'rut' with HP anchored in our neck of woods. 

I thought last winter was incredible but was frustrating through lack of cold and snow, however, a winter that will be talked about for some considerable time for unprecedented storm hits.

One must anticipate that this winter will be different...won't it?  Anyway the way this year has passed so far it won't be long before we find out!!

 

BFTP

[BlueHedgehog074]

Oh great noble Winter 2014/15, it would be an absolute pleasure if you brought this to the UK this year. An Easterly of such elegance, it would dazzle the cold and snow fans' hearts with joy and happiness. It is an honour.    

 

[Summer Sun]

Speaking of winter Calgary in Canada has had unseasonable summer snow storms this week with 12 to 13cm (4 to 5 inches) falling causing trees to fall down

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/29158291

[gsteruk]

Speaking of winter Calgary in Canada has had unseasonable summer snow storms this week with 12 to 13cm (4 to 5 inches) falling causing trees to fall down

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/29158291

Do you imagine this could have any ramifications or be a sign for the uk?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Do you imagine this could have any ramifications or be a sign for the uk?

in a word.....No.

[mcweather]

Oh great noble Winter 2014/15, it would be an absolute pleasure if you brought this to the UK this year. An Easterly of such elegance, it would dazzle the cold and snow fans' hearts with joy and happiness. It is an honour.    

 

High-Quality Easterly.gif

 

Oh yes please I remember it well, trrudging past moonlit 6 foot snowdrifts in the Purbeck hills. Fabulous.