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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    I'm watching developments over in Russia, the Baltics and Siberia; I think something may very well be brewing...

     

    Home grown Vodka I would have thought :drunk:

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    The barbecue summer nonsense was peddled by the media department, not the forecasters.

     

    It was aided and abetted by a misguided comment by a senior Met office worker and then broadcasted by the BBC forecasters.

    I'm afraid in this case the Met Office must take some of the blame

    Here's the evidence

    Anyway, winter officially starts on Monday and could see more frosts by next Sunday then I did last winter. Have to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    wouldn't take much notice, they were way out last year too, and before that ,  dont forget that 2012 'barbecue' summer.  :rofl:

     

    That was summer 09 and they were for the most part correct since it was warmer than average overall. They only said 'above average with the chance of a BBQ'.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Trying to work out logically a setup that somehow results in the south and east of the U.S. having below average temperatures on that chart but the rest of the North America apart from NE Mexico, above? If there was a NWly flow across eastern side yes but wouldn't that result in below average temps over mid and eastern Canada as well?

    Infact, if you look very careful and magnify the British Isles, it looks as though Ireland is slightly below average and maybe NW Scotland. I'm sure I can see a hint of blue there.

    Since I can not work out logically what could cause those N. American anomalies, I take it with a pinch of salt.

     

    Perhaps not quite so illogical. winter 2002/3 had a very similar anomaly pattern over North America.

     

    I4v5CZa.png

     

    Here's the air pressure anomaly.

     

    J8dLaiz.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Perhaps not quite so illogical. winter 2002/3 had a very similar anomaly pattern over North America.

     

    I4v5CZa.png

     

    Here's the air pressure anomaly.

     

    J8dLaiz.png

    But it turned out to be a shocker and the beginning of the end of public LRF. No amount of spin can defend it, they made a big mistake but at least they learn from it. Hopefully we'll see some of the more extreme climate projections being modified from them over time but that's another kettle of fish altogether and not for this thread.
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    But it turned out to be a shocker and the beginning of the end of public LRF. No amount of spin can defend it, they made a big mistake but at least they learn from it. Hopefully we'll see some of the more extreme climate projections being modified from them over time but that's another kettle of fish altogether and not for this thread.

     

    I'm not quite following, sorry. What has any of that got to do with the jamstec winter forecast, or the 2002/3 winter pattern of North America?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    I'm not quite following, sorry. What has any of that got to do with the jamstec winter forecast, or the 2002/3 winter pattern of North America?

    How embarrassing apologies BFTV I skipped reading one thread on the MetO LRF onto your post. Saturday nights and few glasses of wine aren't the best time to engage for me.
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    How embarrassing apologies BFTV I skipped reading one thread on the MetO LRF onto your post. Saturday nights and few glasses of wine aren't the best time to engage for me.

     

    No worries, HP, these things happen. I'm only on my second beer, so I'm playing catch up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

    It was aided and abetted by a misguided comment by a senior Met office worker and then broadcasted by the BBC forecasters.

    I'm afraid in this case the Met Office must take some of the blame

    Here's the evidence

    Anyway, winter officially starts on Monday and could see more frosts by next Sunday then I did last winter. Have to see.

    Is that Laura Tobin?. a meteorologist too. Tut tut.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Perhaps not quite so illogical. winter 2002/3 had a very similar anomaly pattern over North America.

     

    I4v5CZa.png

     

    Here's the air pressure anomaly.

     

    J8dLaiz.png

    Interesting but I still can't around my head how that could still produce a below average anomaly in that region?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    As a new month approaches it now takes me to 20 months without snow on the ground, will December save it from becoming 21 months.....

     

    Final seasonal winter outlook from Gavin Partridge

     

     

    Final winter forecast will be out tomorrow night

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Latest 3 monthly outlook from WSI:

     

    WSI Europe: Warmer Weather to Eventually End Northern/Western Sections

     

    Another Mild Month in December Followed by Transition to Colder Temperatures After New Year

     

    Andover, MA, 24 November 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe for the December-February period, with the exception of extreme northern/western sections where late winter cold will be prevalent.

    According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The warm and wet pattern will likely continue across western Europe will into December, as low pressure continues to dominate. Meanwhile, cold high pressure will likely be confined to central Asia, resulting in below-normal temperatures across much of Russia. This persistent pattern will likely relent at some point later in the month, as most signs point to a breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex during the next month or so. This would sharply increase the odds of colder temperatures after the New Year across northern and western Europe. We continue to expect that cold weather will become more and more frequent as the winter progresses.â€

    In December, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal east
    UK – Warmer than normal
    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme east
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme east

    In January, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
    UK – Colder than normal
    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

    In February, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme east
    UK – Colder than normal
    Northern Mainland – Colder than normal west, warmer than normal east
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

     

    http://www.wsi.com/8c3b9e5c-dff6-42b7-934d-6b275471d99e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    About this time of the year, when the models are not providing much inspiration,  I like to throw in a comparison to the early part of the 1946/7 winter to generate some hope  :)   This development over 3rd and 4th Dec back then doesn't seem a million miles away.....

    Rslp19461203.gif
    Rslp19461204.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL

    About this time of the year, when the models are not providing much inspiration,  I like to throw in a comparison to the early part of the 1946/7 winter to generate some hope  :)   This development over 3rd and 4th Dec back then doesn't seem a million miles away.....Rslp19461203.gifRslp19461204.gif

    This is the thought I'm hanging on to!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The Weather Outlooks winter forecast is now available a summary of it is below

     

    Winter 2014/15: Mixed, colder at times

     

    Forecast Issued 01/12/2014

     

    Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

     

    Overview

     

    A more varied winter is expected than last year’s. An unsettled period bringing above average rainfall, and in the north snow, is expected to develop in late December and last into early February. In the east and south the second half of February is most likely to bring significant snowfall.

     

    Temperature
     

    Slightly below average in the north.
    Close to average in the south .   

     

    Precipitation

     

    Close to or slightly above average.

     

    FORECAST NOTES

     

    The following possibilities were considered possible but less likely than the forecast details above.

     

    Second half of December

     

    Colder incursions become more persistent and widespread with an increasing risk of snow.

     

    January

     

    Colder conditions push the snow risk further south.

     

    Second half of February

     

    A much milder and more benign outcome with the cold block remaining to the east of the UK.

     

    Full detailed summary here: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I like the sound of that. As others.. Lets wait and see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    In about 2-3 weeks time we should start to see some runs like these!!

     

    ECH1-168.GIF?12

     

     

    ECH0-168.GIF?12

     

     

     

    ECH1-240.GIF?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    In about 2-3 weeks time we should start to see some runs like these!!

    ECH1-168.GIF?12

    ECH0-168.GIF?12

    ECH1-240.GIF?12

    That would sure put a lot of the cold lovers, especially the South-Eastern ones, in snowy paradise. :cold: Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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