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Early winter hopes and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

 

Met office seem rather mild biased these days. Must be trying to kid people on that global warming actually exists. 

Don't see that myself - surely their forecast for December isn't that far from the consensus here?

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

Met office having none of it - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html

 

Met office seem rather mild biased these days. Must be trying to kid people on that global warming actually exists. 

Much like the huge cold bias seen in this forum these days..met office just predicts the weather it can see unlike here where people just predict the weather they would like to see and woe be tide anyone who sees anything different.

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Hocus Pocus Community Regular

Hocus Pocus

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
Posted

The sooner we get a change in wind direction the better not had any sunshine since Monday

 

:lazy:

It's grim, which for us Northerners really is saying something.

Much like the huge cold bias seen in this forum these days..met office just predicts the weather it can see unlike here where people just predict the weather they would like to see and woe be tide anyone who sees anything different.

Err, but they aren't paid a wage like the professionals. Of course I'm not agreeing that they have a mild bias, well not for the metrology side anyway. :oops:

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

50 shades of grey!

 

Hopefully there should be some sunny spells over the weekend

 

Looking forward to the north westerly at least it will bring us some sunshine!

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IanR Seasoned

IanR

Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted

Its still worrying that the MetO aren't buying into any cold spell for the foreseeable, until they are on board I'll remain cautiously pessimistic.

wouldn't take much notice, they were way out last year too, and before that ,  dont forget that 2012 'barbecue' summer.  :rofl:

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

wouldn't take much notice, they were way out last year too, and before that ,  dont forget that 2012 'barbecue' summer.  :rofl:

 

The barbecue summer nonsense was peddled by the media department, not the forecasters.

 

Let's be honest, NOBODY could have predicted such an extreme winter as we saw last year.

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Essex winter Rookie

Essex winter

Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, cold winters.
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Posted

Hopefully bucket loads of snow for my neck of the woods this winter.wont take much to beat last year.EW

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

Met office having none of it - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html

 

Met office seem rather mild biased these days. Must be trying to kid people on that global warming actually exists. 

Maybe it is me but hasn't it been average at best and mild if not best ,we have had almost nothing in the way of winter as yet and I for one don't see anything on the horizon...maybe others have better eyes than me or maybe IMAGINATION !!!!

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

The barbecue summer nonsense was peddled by the media department, not the forecasters.

Let's be honest, NOBODY could have predicted such an extreme winter as we saw last year.

No it wasn't , I remeber watching the local Midlands weather forecast and they headlined in big bold letters , a BBQ summer this year , it was followed by the wettest summer in 100 yrs , the met have been so wrong in the past it's been a catasrophe , everyone sticks up for them like we are offending people but In reality when someone consistently forecasts something , and then the opposite happens , not just once but lots of occasions , then they become a laughing stock .

There every day forecasts are bang on , and their monthly ones aren't bad either , but there's reasons why they stopped doing LRF's , because it was embarrassing them .

I'm not hating on them , I'm just saying it as I see it , and there probability maps are no better .

But when it comes to weekly/daily forecasts , knowone can touch them .

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

The barbecue summer nonsense was peddled by the media department, not the forecasters.

 

Let's be honest, NOBODY could have predicted such an extreme winter as we saw last year.

 

Indeed, but perhaps they could have got a little closer?.......

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

Indeed, but perhaps they could have got a little closer?.......

That is why the met office have learned their lesson about long range forcasts...they know that it cannot be any more accurate than me or you ,anyone else on this forum ,the local witch doctor and how many times my dog barks when it goes into the garden !!!!

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Its still worrying that the MetO aren't buying into any cold spell for the foreseeable, until they are on board I'll remain cautiously pessimistic.

Its not worrying at all...

 

BFTP

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

Indeed, but perhaps they could have got a little closer?.......

To be fair, the Daily Express with their "100 days of snow" forecast was only one word out! :)

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

Jamstec's November update isn't very encouraging. Put quite a damper on really.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1nov2014.gif

Trying to work out logically a setup that somehow results in the south and east of the U.S. having below average temperatures on that chart but the rest of the North America apart from NE Mexico, above? If there was a NWly flow across eastern side yes but wouldn't that result in below average temps over mid and eastern Canada as well?

Infact, if you look very careful and magnify the British Isles, it looks as though Ireland is slightly below average and maybe NW Scotland. I'm sure I can see a hint of blue there.

Since I can not work out logically what could cause those N. American anomalies, I take it with a pinch of salt.

Edited by Weather-history
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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Trying to work out logically a setup that somehow results in the south and east of the U.S. having below average temperatures on that chart but the rest of the North America apart from NE Mexico, above? If there was a NWly flow across eastern side yes but wouldn't that result in below average temps over mid and eastern Canada as well?

Infact, if you look very careful and magnify the British Isles, it looks as though Ireland is slightly below average and maybe NW Scotland. I'm sure I can see a hint of blue there.

Since I can not work out logically what could cause those N. American anomalies, I take it with a pinch of salt.

Totally agree! - I couldn't make head or tail of that model forecast and what synoptics can cause those temperature anomalies.

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Ninman Contributor

Ninman

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
Posted

Totally agree! - I couldn't make head or tail of that model forecast and what synoptics can cause those temperature anomalies.

 

It must be sponsored by the Daily Express.

 

Seriously though, it does make you wonder how the model came up with this! Just goes to show that long range model output is very rarely accurate and can also defy logic in terms of climate and current synoptic indicators, so its best to ignore them and use them as a guide rather than as a forecast (although with this output, you may as well just bin it!)

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted

Let's be honest, NOBODY could have predicted such an extreme winter as we saw last year.

 

An extreme should be easier to predict, given the strength of the signals needed for it to happen.

 

That nobody did makes it clear that long range forecasts are no more than hopeful guesses. Anyone from the Met Office to the one man band should be ignored.

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DOdo Enthusiast

DOdo

Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
Posted

Excuse my ignorance but the Met O says 25% probability of a mild December January and February, What happens to the other 75%? :cc_confused:  :rofl:

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted

Jamstec's November update isn't very encouraging. Put quite a damper on really.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1nov2014.gif

 

It might comfort you to know that, in their November update, they they haven't got any of the last 5 winters correct for UK temps.

 

The full link has the archive.  http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted

Excuse my ignorance but the Met O says 25% probability of a mild December January and February, What happens to the other 75%? :cc_confused:  :rofl:

 

They said there was a 25% probability of the winter falling within the warmest of their five temperature categories, not a 25% risk of it just being mild.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm watching developments over in Russia, the Baltics and Siberia; I think something may very well be brewing...

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Excuse my ignorance but the Met O says 25% probability of a mild December January and February, What happens to the other 75%? :cc_confused:  :rofl:

 

I think you need to re read the output to get the correct understanding?

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