Early winter hopes and chat

[throwoff]

It's gone a bit mad in the mid thread, some completely in favour of the block that is developing being a long term thing and the cold gradually building.

Some saying the cold is going to come in quick as the block is in.

Some saying the jet is going to smash the block apart and bring rain..

All very much to play for, and some real evidence for what some of us have been saying for weeks, don't trust long term models!

[damianslaw]

I sense the BBC in particular are quite frustrated with the current synoptical set up, consistenly having to back away from the idea of the atlantic charging through - a theme of the whole autumn.. I wonder if they are beginning to regret there 10 day outlook and wish they had just stuck to 5 days ahead, its become quite meaningless and all too often very vague.

 

High pressure over scandi has been an omnipresent feature all year, unusually persistent, its continued presence fits in with many analogues for November.

 

We're a far cry from the atlantic set up going into winter 13/14..

[snowtimenow]

Looks like Piers is expecting a 2010 scenario then, he never seems to get mentioned on here though why is that?

[Timmytour]

Looks like Piers is expecting a 2010 scenario then, he never seems to get mentioned on here though why is that?

I suspect it's because, if he was renowned for being right, we'd all be praying the respite of a mild snowless winter this year!!!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Looks like Piers is expecting a 2010 scenario then, he never seems to get mentioned on here though why is that?

I could be mistaken, but I think his forecasts are a bit outlandish and more of the Madden'esk type, i.e. not backed up with a whole lot of science. Still, would take that Winter / December again any day as it was truly amazing here.       

[throwoff]

The Atlantic is so hard to judge, last year some models kept underplaying it and it steamrollered in.

[Methuselah]

Looks like Piers is expecting a 2010 scenario then, he never seems to get mentioned on here though why is that?

Could be because he's more often wrong than right?

[PolarWarsaw]

Meanwhile...tonight in Buffalo...

 

 

 

[Yarmy]

Could be because he's more often wrong than right?

Only because of those pesky solar sausages.

[Weather-history]

Meanwhile...tonight in Buffalo...

 

 

 

I am glad I'm not in Buffalo to be honest. Temperatures are expected to reach 16C on Monday, that snow is going to thaw very rapidly! It's going to be a horrific slush mess.

[PolarWarsaw]

I am glad I'm not in Buffalo to be honest. Temperatures are expected to reach 16C on Monday, that snow is going to thaw very rapidly! It's going to be a horrific slush mess.

 

After 6 feet of snow in 3 days...you'l have to forgive me if a splodge of dirty slush doesn't deter

[cheese]

I am glad I'm not in Buffalo to be honest. Temperatures are expected to reach 16C on Monday, that snow is going to thaw very rapidly! It's going to be a horrific slush mess.

Too much of a good thing - seriously, 6-7 feet of snow is beyond excessive. There comes a point when snow goes from being beautiful and enjoyable to being a pain in the bum, and I think that point is reached when you are blocked in your house, you can't get food, your heating no longer works and your roof is about to cave in on itself.

Edited November 22, 2014 by cheese

[Wynn D Woo]

Too much of a good thing - seriously, 6-7 feet of snow is beyond excessive. There comes a point when snow goes from being beautiful and enjoyable to being a pain in the bum, and I think that point is reached when you are blocked in your house, you can't get food, your heating no longer works and your roof is about to cave in on itself.

Still it would be nice to actually get a chance to experience that amount of snow, 6 inches is the absolute max this crummy town can muster in the very best conditions but in the main 1 inch that melts in a couple hours is as good as it gets if we get anything at all! jan 2013 and counting...

[snowy weather]

does anyone have any footage of the snow falling in Buffalo? It would be great to see how heavy it was

[gsteruk]

Agreed, as much as I love extreme weather - buffalo weather would kill the uk very quickly

[Daniel*]

I am glad I'm not in Buffalo to be honest. Temperatures are expected to reach 16C on Monday, that snow is going to thaw very rapidly! It's going to be a horrific slush mess.

Severe/moderate flooding looking likely? - the drainage system will be overwhelmed with all the meltwater... Personally the thaw would come as a blessing.

[richardc1983]

does anyone have any footage of the snow falling in Buffalo? It would be great to see how heavy it was

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-historic-lake-effect-snowstorm/page-34 Here onwards are videos and pictures. It's the American equivalent of this forum. Amazing footage.

Oh and here...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-historic-lake-effect-snowstorm/page-40

Edited November 23, 2014 by richardc1983

[picog]

Talking of snow, is anyone expecting to see a little sleet or snow on Tuesday? Even as far south as Ludlow the MetO are giving a max of 5C. Ludlow is about 100m asl.

Windswept, if you want to experience deep snow in the UK, then head off to the mountains of Snowdonia, the Lakes or Scotland in Februrary.

[irishlad69]

Could be because he's more often wrong than right?

piers corbyn is never repeated on here because he is nearly always right, and he goes against the grain of the met office, he is a very reliable forcaster

[irishlad69]

I see a couple of the charts are going colder going into December, I know its a bit far out but its better than nothing

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder what would happen (professional views wanted here) if such a long fetch Northerly or Easterly occurred that the difference between surface and air temperature was ridiculously great like +10c inshore water or even coastal water with 850hpa temps of -25c and very low 500mn heights, would you get really intense thundersnow with constant lightning lighting up the sky and ridiculously high PPN rates?

[Summer Sun]

8th and final winter update from Gavin Partridge

 

 

His winter forecast will be released on December 1st

[Chris K]

Finally...a week where I might see some frost! Temps forecast to stay under 10 degrees Celsius by day as well. After last year it's already an improvement (except for any rain)

Edited November 23, 2014 by Chris K

[johnholmes]

Current temp -2C................Bar 1002......................some blowing Snow.and a few flurries....................nothing much more...............but seasonable........................Good Health.Nuff said...........

 

you are of course on a wind up but how about you pop your town in so everyone can see where this cold is occurring please?

[Froze were the Days]

I think you can guarantee with his (Gavin) emphasis on SST's being fairly warm in a similar position as last autumn around the Alaskan Gulf and off the Coast of the Pacific North West coupled with solar activity still relatively high (not near the minimum) he'll plump for a milder than average winter 2014/15 - I'll be surprised if he forecasts anything different perhaps the mention of the possibility of the odd cold snap.