Early winter hopes and chat

[Festivefreeze]

What's the chances of seeing another December 2010-setup in the next 10 years?

[Summer Sun]

7th winter update from Gavin Partridge

 

[damianslaw]

What's the chances of seeing another December 2010-setup in the next 10 years?

 

 

Based on statistics and probability, very slim, given the last below 0 degree December was over 100 years ago prior to 2010. Not to say we won't see a sub 0 degree January and February. The last sub freezing February was 1986 and the last sub freezing January way back in 1979 - so high time we see one.

 

It doesn't work like this but we are long overdue a notably cold February, since 1986 we have had only one Feb come in below 2 degrees that being 1991.

 

We've managed a notably cold March in 2013 and a preety cold Jan in 2010, February its your turn next!

[Weather-history]

Based on statistics and probability, very slim, given the last below 0 degree December was over 100 years ago prior to 2010.

Having said that previous to 1890, there were two witin twenty years of this, 1874 and 1878 with 1879 a near miss.

It goes to show that the climate will do what it will do regardless of probabilities and stats.

[Festivefreeze]

Statistically then, based on averages, there is a greater chance of January or February bringing a month as cold as December 2010 before there's another December like that? Does that sound reasonable?

Edited November 16, 2014 by November2005Fan

[summer blizzard]

What's the chances of seeing another December 2010-setup in the next 10 years?

 

Stastistically speaking over the last 300 years years your odds are..

 

Dec: Once every 50 years

Jan: Once every ~17 years

Feb: Once every ~42 years

 

One could say that we are overdue a sub-zero Jan if you wanted to ramp.

[Dancerwithwings]

Stastistically speaking over the last 300 years years your odds are..

 

Dec: Once every 50 years

Jan: Once every ~17 years

Feb: Once every ~42 years

 

One could say that we are overdue a sub-zero Jan if you wanted to ramp.

According to Gavin Partridge that may just happen.....not sub-zero but defo a cold one, remember all..... it's just for fun

 

Edited November 16, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Festivefreeze]

How much did the 'Polar Vortex' influence the relentless storms across Britain last winter? Is the cold weather in the USA at the moment and the position of the jet stream a bad sign if we want a cold winter?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Do you believe that the rare freeze experienced in Britain in late November and throughout December 2010 was anything to do with reduced solar activity? I have heard lots about the idea that solar variability affects the weather. I know that Piers Corbyn of Weather Action believes that the Jet stream is affected by solar activity, rather than the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. I do understand, of course, that Piers is not a mainstream weather forecaster, and although I find his predictions interesting I'm not saying that I believe them. What do you think?

Yes I think solar cycles affect the long term positioning [north or south] and behaviour of the Jetstream and whether it is more meridional. It doesn't imo pinpoint individual incidents like Dec 2010 but it makes them more achievable.  I think this December is going to be quite a cold one by the way.

 

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Festivefreeze]

Cumulonimbus, what signs do you think are pointing towards quite a cold December? When you say 'quite cold' do you mean slightly below the average?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cumulonimbus, what signs do you think are pointing towards quite a cold December? When you say 'quite cold' do you mean slightly below the average?

Its BFTP by the way

 

I've thought this for some time.  I'll explain fully when I do my LRF but last winter was exceptional due to storm after storm hitting us, but that has happened in the past and seems to be linked to the very anomalous warmth that occurred in the North Pacific in 2013.  The winter/s that followed that stormy winter had cold and blocked periods in dec and Feb...so that was a baseline start along with a sure fire -ve QBO and our current solar phase that heads towards a grand minima.  How cold.........colder than I initially thought

 

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Festivefreeze]

Is the jet stream supposed to have slowed down a bit in recent years? I'm sure I read an article that said this. But aren't milder winters driven by stronger jet streams? I'm confused. Can anyone help explain this to me please? Thanks for that Blast from the Past.

[Polar Maritime]

Im thinking colder 

[Timmytour]

Is the jet stream supposed to have slowed down a bit in recent years? I'm sure I read an article that said this. But aren't milder winters driven by stronger jet streams? I'm confused. Can anyone help explain this to me please? Thanks for that Blast from the Past.

I'm not sure whether is actually has or not, but I believe it's a theory of those who believe in gloabal warming that fresh water from melting arctic ice would flow into the Atlantic and disrupt, slow and eventually stop the Gulf Stream from coming as far north as it currently does. This would then deprive the Jet Stream of a source of its power in our neck of the woods. i think that's how it goes anyway!

As for a cold winter, I think we're heading for one of hopes raised and dashed and raised and dashed again with only brief flirtations with what we want until the last few days of January and we end up with one of the coldest Februarys we've had for a long time

Edited November 16, 2014 by Timmytour

[meathead]

Are the charts today looking as good as last night?

[terrier]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

[Mark Neal.]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

edit- Just found the topic for his forecast!

Edited November 16, 2014 by Mark N

[Neilsouth]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

 

 

Hey all here's my forecast for the next three months, some cold interludes intermixed with mild and rain.

Edited November 16, 2014 by TruthSpeaker

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

A lot of effort has gone into it so I appreciate the work . However to base a forecast on SST's and solar cycle alone is in my opinion naive .

If you build a house with lots of insulation put in the walls , a nice log burner and Central heating , but forget to put the windows in it simply won't keep you warm . No matter how well you do everything else .

His basing a forecast solely on one or two factors and missing out some extremely vital other components in my opinion .

But fair play to him what ever floats your boat I suppose.

[kate1]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

Sorry, I am struggling to find a forecast from Ian Penall for Winter 2014/15 - could you provide a link?

[Mark Neal.]

Sorry, I am struggling to find a forecast from Ian Penall for Winter 2014/15 - could you provide a link?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81848-seasonal-prediction-for-winter-2014-15-for-northern-britain-based-on-large-scale-sst-sea-ice-anomalies-in-autumn-2014/#entry3071112

[Dancerwithwings]

Sorry, I am struggling to find a forecast from Ian Penall for Winter 2014/15 - could you provide a link?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81848-seasonal-prediction-for-winter-2014-15-for-northern-britain-based-on-large-scale-sst-sea-ice-anomalies-in-autumn-2014/#entry3071001

[kate1]

Thanks, guys!

[Festivefreeze]

Is it possible for last year's winter pattern (i.e. exceptionally mild and wet) to be repeated even with an easterly QBO?

[marksiwnc]

Reading Ian penalls great write up on winter sounds like a very similar pattern to last winter. Gales rain. With any cold been very short lived. This guy called last winter spot on. Plus he has backed it all up incredibly well. Certainly a must read.

If you have been reading it you will know that he started his forecast from september and has already had October and November wrong. So I think he's a bit gutted