Early winter hopes and chat

[cheese]

I do miss snow.. last proper snowfall was March 2013. Last settling snow was in November 2013. Last falling snow was in January 2014 - but none settled at all.

 

Personally, I would like a repeat of January 2013 in Leeds.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2014 by cheese

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Would love to see a winter that beats 1683/84 for the CET. Would also love to see the record broke for the snowiest, whatever winter that is? Though I believe it's 1946/47 for last century at least.

[syed2878]

good to c this thread up and running folks. well surely surely w2014-2015 cant be any worse than 2013-2014 can it? Well lets hope its a cold 1 with plenty of snow and some sunny days.

[lassie23]

good to c this thread up and running folks. well surely surely w2014-2015 cant be any worse than 2013-2014 can it? Well lets hope its a cold 1 with plenty of snow and some sunny days.

Even if I have five minutes of sleet, it will be better than last winter! :clapping:

[mushymanrob]

i hate the cold... so another winter like last would suit me fine.

 

but IF we have to have cold/snow, a dec 2010 or 1981 suits me best. get it when its crimbo, get it over with and out the way so spring can start in february.

[gsteruk]

For me I prefer the cold and snow to be severe and early. The run up to Xmas when I'm preparing for some time off work is brilliant when the winter feels properly settled. I'm not really a fan of big winter events in January, then we're depressed going back to work and struggling through snow at that point to get to work just isn't as much fun suddenly lol

[Duane S.]

Currently reading through the lead up to Dec 2009 cold spell on the model disc threads of the time (still can't find the nov dec 2010 ones though...).

It gives a very different perspective to when it's going on in 'real time'. The sheer level of doom and gloom followed by unmitigated elation followed by near suicidal despair as each set of charts roll out is incredible (and that is often just in the space of one day!).

In amongst all of that nonsense the few stand out posters exist, none more so than the mighty GP. He really was on another level in terms of being able to see the bigger picture in respect of the GWO, MJO and atmospheric coupling from the Enso state. I think he was snapped up by a company which precluded him from posting in here? Certainly was this forums loss...

[gsteruk]

Currently reading through the lead up to Dec 2009 cold spell on the model disc threads of the time (still can't find the nov dec 2010 ones though...).

It gives a very different perspective to when it's going on in 'real time'. The sheer level of doom and gloom followed by unmitigated elation followed by near suicidal despair as each set of charts roll out is incredible (and that is often just in the space of one day!).

In amongst all of that nonsense the few stand out posters exist, none more so than the mighty GP. He really was on another level in terms of being able to see the bigger picture in respect of the GWO, MJO and atmospheric coupling from the Enso state. I think he was snapped up by a company which precluded him from posting in here? Certainly was this forums loss...

I'm reading through that same series of threads, your so right, its a wonderful read! I think knowing how things turned out turns those threads into a really intriguing diary, like reading a favourite book again. Oh how wonderful would it be for it all to happen again!

[terrier]

Just been reading through roger j smiths winter outlook for 2014/2015 and at the moment it does seem that everything is pointing towards a wetter and warmer than average winter. Now roger has called this summer pretty much spot on. But as ever time will tell. But looks very similar to last winter as things stand.

[Evening thunder]

There's something on the previous page that isn't, so really no one knows at present.

[gsteruk]

As much as I love these kind of threads, and I love a bit of ramping - of course its far too early to make any kind of realistic forecast for winter. 09/10 i think is a perfect example of that. So many got it so very wrong even at close range

[The Post-modern Winter]

Just before I get into any forecasting reviews or views, one comment on the EML review above, the reference to "BFTP" should be "BFTV" as it is Born From The Void whose forecast is being reviewed there, I think.

 

In my own case, August turned a lot cooler than expected around the 10th or so, and that part of the forecast was definitely a bust. I think that conditions before that were fairly close to what was foreseen, the overall result therefore was mixed. I'm looking over these results to see what can be learned but too early to say anything there yet.

 

From research and just the subjective feel of things at present, would say that the autumn looks likely to be generally settled and a bit warmer than average at least. Even so, one or two windy spells could develop as the storm track looks set to run just north of Ireland and Scotland on average. This could lead to November being like last year with some brief mild spells and significant cold spells that dominate the pattern.

 

As to the winter 2014-15, have not done much work on it, the research model output looks rather variable but near long-term averages overall. Will be turning my attention to that in the next few weeks.

 

 

Just been reading through roger j smiths winter outlook for 2014/2015 and at the moment it does seem that everything is pointing towards a wetter and warmer than average winter. Now roger has called this summer pretty much spot on. But as ever time will tell. But looks very similar to last winter as things stand.

 

Hello Terrier, could you possibly point me towards Rogers forecast? As you can see above, he posted only four days ago that he's not done much work on it but will do over the next few weeks. He also says that the output is near long-term averages but this is variable. Must have had a real break through over the past three days to decide winter will be warmer and wetter than average . .

[Carl46Wrexham]

A normal winter of mild spells, albeit without too much rain interspersed with colder spells with snow and frosty conditions will do just fine.

What won't do would be a repeat of the hideous spawn of Satan that had had the official title of winter 2013/14.

[gsteruk]

Looking back at the 09 threads, LomondSnowstorm as always really did call things very well - if he gets excited about things, we all should Lol here's hoping you feel something in your water this year Lomond!

[lassie23]

It's good that a mild winter is being predicted by a long range forecaster, as the opposite usually happens!

[SMU]

I wouldnt worry about the content if anyones winter forecast as the varification for the UK is as good as a coin toss, the most your ever going to get is an increased probability forecast related to the 3 main drivers ( for us anyway ) being - ENSO, stratsophere & the QBO.

These linked together will certainly begin to populate some form of background signal in terms of the integrity of the zonal wind.

The problem is whilst we are shuffling along edging closer to less pixalated understanding of warming events we are yet to really get a grip of how the stratosphere is going to look for the winter as a mean state, whether it be warm or very cold.

Anyone & that really is ANYONE releasing a definitive winter forecast prior to december -1 may as file it in trash.

We can certainly speculate on the other 2 MAIN variables which at this stage seem supportive of a pattern a little more blocky - however until the stratosphere is suitably measured & tracked throughout November then thats all it will be.

Even when that becomes clear & we stand on the eve of december its not straight forward - especially predicting cold.

From a winter point of view the correlation of mild winters & very cold stratospheres has a very strong link -

However the signal on the inverse is less pronounced, all it does having a warmer background stratosphere is release its grip on the tight vortex & allow the other signals to compete for the pole position.

The strat is certainly the mercedes F1 team at the moment with things like the qbo & enso fighting for the lower podium & lower points places -

Relating to the above I would place the SAI somewhere in the back of the pack like a Sauber - something to consider overall but not a MAJOR global pattern dictator, but more relevent to our quartile of the globe.

This place is like a rollercoaster at the best of times, so no need for early highs & lows with any forecasts released already or anytime soon as they cant take into account the most critical piece of information......,

Ciao

S

Edited September 7, 2014 by Steve Murr

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Any winter may eed to be heavily modified if we get a big bang in Iceland.

This whole year has appeared to be early, but I can't, at the moment see a cold autumn unless we do get a big eruption

Edited September 7, 2014 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Beautiful! Oh I wish!

To think those pictures were taken last year, think I was one of the lucky ones bar the Highlands!!

[hillbilly]

The fact is no one can predict the winter ahead,all those who attempt are fools and I for one will be laughing at their comments..Has anyone ever got a long term [months ahead] forcast right.......erm...no ! Did anyone predict last winter ...no,anyone got august right...NO !

[lassie23]

The fact is no one can predict the winter ahead,all those who attempt are fools and I for one will be laughing at their comments..Has anyone ever got a long term [months ahead] forcast right.......erm...no ! Did anyone predict last winter ...no,anyone got august right...NO !

A net weather member got last winter spot on!   If I could only remember his user name!

Edited September 7, 2014 by lassie23

[hillbilly]

A net weather member got last winter spot on!   If I could only remember his user name!

Am not sure how many members there are but out of hundreds there has to be someone who can GUESS something close to what we had,the fact is take that same person and closely look at his next 3 or 4 forcasts and see how they stack up...yes you guessed way off mark.If someone were to get it right 3 out of 4 they would be billionaires and worldwide stars!!!

[lassie23]

Am not sure how many members there are but out of hundreds there has to be someone who can GUESS something close to what we had,the fact is take that same person and closely look at his next 3 or 4 forcasts and see how they stack up...yes you guessed way off mark.If someone were to get it right 3 out of 4 they would be billionaires and worldwide stars!!!

He went into quite a lot of fine detail too!

[DELETED]

Just been reading through roger j smiths winter outlook for 2014/2015 and at the moment it does seem that everything is pointing towards a wetter and warmer than average winter. Now roger has called this summer pretty much spot on. But as ever time will tell. But looks very similar to last winter as things stand.

Evening terrier!

 

im not sure which post you are refering to as i have not seen anything that resembles this, also as far as long range charts are concerned it looks a lot colder than last winter. But as its been stressed before, theres no way of really knowing! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just been reading through roger j smiths winter outlook for 2014/2015 and at the moment it does seem that everything is pointing towards a wetter and warmer than average winter. Now roger has called this summer pretty much spot on. But as ever time will tell. But looks very similar to last winter as things stand.

 

Having looked at various factors such as QBO, ENSO etc, 09'/'10 looks to be a close fit for an analogue at present. I've watched Gav's video RE his initial winter thoughts too and interestingly a Modiki Nino correlates quite well to a cold continental winter with the UK on the periphery. Who knows though, Roger was certainly correct last winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Having looked at various factors such as QBO, ENSO etc, 09'/'10 looks to be a close fit for an analogue at present. I've watched Gav's video RE his initial winter thoughts too and interestingly a Modiki Nino correlates quite well to a cold continental winter with the UK on the periphery. Who knows though, Roger was certainly correct last winter.

 

 

And a near tripole showing on the SST anomaly chart as well.

Edited September 7, 2014 by feb1991blizzard