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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    The ECM monthly is certainly failing to show a cold signal for the next 30 days.

    The thing with those though is that they change rapidly from week to week in the winter months, or so they appear to though last winter they were consistent as the weather and outlook remained the same.
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    It is said enough, but it is really is waiting game, but this year will deliver.

     

    As long as the jet remains meridonial we will get our chance. I liken the jet stream to a piece of rope, with a meridonial jet, its like giving it a flick and watching the ripple move along. In time, if you remain in the same place you will end up in a trough, which will hopefully be sometime in early December.

     

    Once again though, those pesky Southern Greenland shortwaves scupper any hope in the next 2-3 weeks.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Contacted the MetO...gutted....soaring winter temps for decades to come... :diablo:

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Contacted the MetO...gutted....soaring winter temps for decades to come... :diablo:

     

    BFTP

    Noway hosay.... better have a look at this lot then..... from Nov/Dec 2010, WOW!-Nov 29th, Day time temps -1c,Blizzards and windchill -8c and even better as we went into December.

     https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78562-forecasts-and-news-reports-from-late-november-december-2010/

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Noway hosay.... better have a look at this lot then..... from Nov/Dec 2010, WOW!-Nov 29th, Day time temps -1c,Blizzards and windchill -8c and even better as we went into December.

     https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78562-forecasts-and-news-reports-from-late-november-december-2010/

     

    I had daytime temps of between -6 and -8c for a few days in that spell and someone round here recorded -20c at night, I didn't have water for 4 days as the cold broke the water meter and froze the pipes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Yes!  feb1991blizzard extreme cold it was, ain't going to go on about 2010  :cold:  but sometimes i have to pinch myself when looking at them You Tube vid's,

    some of them weather forecasts would suit me just fine in Jan !!! but in November..... How i wish them would come again :cold: :cold: :cold:

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Yes!  feb1991blizzard extreme cold it was, ain't going to go on about 2010  :cold:  but sometimes i have to pinch myself when looking at them You Tube vid's,

    some of them weather forecasts would suit me just fine in Jan !!! but in November..... How i wish them would come again :cold: :cold: :cold:

     

    I wish I had been living here in 09/10, this was only 3 miles away from where I am now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHexXG6Yg8k

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    Contacted the MetO...gutted....soaring winter temps for decades to come... :diablo:

     

    BFTP

     

    Good Lord, I hope this is a joke! :bad:  :( Having lived through the 90's and 00's with the majority of those winters being mild and snowless I don't know if I could take another bout of them! :crazy: I do often wonder if the MetO's research / supercomputers were to indicate a return to another mini ice-age (like that in 16th / 17th centuries) that they would actually inform us of this or just treat us with kid gloves! 

     

    I am going to go with reverse psychology and assume that the exact opposite is going to happen, if only for my own sanity!!!  :crazy:  :shok:  :crazy:

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Contacted the MetO...gutted....soaring winter temps for decades to come... :diablo:

     

    BFTP

     

    BFTP=is this kind of comment, without any proof, really necessary?

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    BFTP=is this kind of comment, without any proof, really necessary?

     

    It is only a joke, good to have a little lightheartedness in the thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    It is only a joke, good to have a little lightheartedness in the thread.

     

    fair enough

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    JH

    Hi its only meant to lighten moods...I thought the 'decades to come' comment would have been the hint

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    JH

    Hi its only meant to lighten moods...I thought the 'decades to come' comment would have been the hint

     

    BFTP

    i thought you was being serious to lol very funny BFTP  :diablo:  :cold:  :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    i thought you was being serious to lol very funny BFTP  :diablo:  :cold:  :rofl:

     

    Hah, got to wait until MetO get thier new super computer before they can forecast that far out. When they do D10 will no longer mean 'Day 10' but 'Decade 10'. It'll take all the fun out of model watching.

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)

    Hi everyone. This is my first time posting here, so please forgive me if I have posted this on the wrong thread. I have been interested in the weather since I was a teenager, and I found the topic very interesting when I did it at GCSE Geography. Although, I have not posted on here before, I like to read the messages.

     

    Although I am no weather expert, my gut feeling is that the coming winter is likely to be another mild and wet one. My guess is based on the fact that there has recently been very cold air spilling into north America. Therefore I think that, like last year, this will strengthen the temperature contrast over the Atlantic, and help to drive the jet stream.

    Edited by Richard Johnson
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    They were anomalously high in November 2010 too and we saw how that turned out - massive convective snow off the North Sea. Of course that was a pretty exceptional setup, and it probably would harm us in more marginal setups, but IMO it's better to get a cold easterly early December than in March when SSTs are low and inhibits convection.

     

    But do you know the comparisons between sea temperatures between then and now, this autumn has certainly been much milder than then surely?

     

    No signs of any cooling down anytime soon so lets hope winter can actually deliver something of the cold variety. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    I think that atmosphere was always going to be tetchy from the second that atlantic driven charts started showing, that's just natural after the wretched winter affair last time around. However, people need to refer to Matt Hugo, Chino and SK in the Strat thread. It's been quite obvious for a while that the -NAO was on the decline and that are slightly more atlantic driven pattern was going to occur and to be honest be NEEDED to reset and give us a better chance of cold starting from around the early stages of the last week of November. 

     

    People calling 'winter is over' and 'thats it' - need to remember that like the cold of 2010, last year was an extreme 'mild/wet' version of winter and that just because the pattern is looking like being dominated from the west in the next 10 days or so that this does not mean winter is over, by any shot. By all means, we may stay mild and wet for the entire winter, but by the exact same chance we may dip into a 3 month freezer from early December, virtually nobody can have a REAL idea. 

     

    Writing winter off now...is like calling Summer and miserable disaster in early May.

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)

    I am hoping for some cold weather too. It would be nice to have a traditional winter for once, with the coldest weather coming later in January and into February. Maybe even if this winter is mild overall, there could be a notable cold spell later in the winter that would slightly reduce the December-January-February average temperature, so that the coming winter is a bit less mild overall than last...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Welcome to the Forum Richard Nov2005/fan   :)

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather (i.e nothing that deviates too much from the norm)

    Thanks for the warm welcome Polar Maritime. As I said in my introduction, I have always been interested in weather, but I'm far from being an expert. I'm mainly here out of interest, but also out of a desire to learn more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Hah, got to wait until MetO get thier new super computer before they can forecast that far out. When they do D10 will no longer mean 'Day 10' but 'Decade 10'. It'll take all the fun out of model watching.

     

    Problem is with the MetO is their computer data is fixated on Climate Change and Global Warming, so basically they should have two types of modelling, one with it added and one without.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    There is interesting and upbeat soundings from Matt Hugo.  Since my early heads up on 3/9/14 of how I anticipate winter 2014/5 to go certain pointers have concluded to support those ideas a bit.   OPI has come in at very decent -ve value, huge Siberian snow cover for October, current decent wave 1 activity going on with PV not organised and being put under a lot of pressure.  [We knew that the QBO was going to be in strong -ve phase].  The fact that [and IMO looks very likely] that we're going to get an Atlantic controlled period next week is neither here nor there because if the 'pointers' are correct then the AO will be controlled by overall -ve phase over winter.

    I still think a the 'sudden' switch to colder conditions will come backend of THIS month, whether that will be a start of a prolonged period of cold blocking or just one of a number of short term cold favourable blocking episodes interpsersed by Atlantic affair in our neck of the woods I'm not yet decided on...I'm 75/25 for the latter.  I'm writing up my finalised LRF and will release it next week...but its not really looking much different to my early cast...just with a bit more nuts and bolts on it.

    For me my hopes are for at least some early cold blocking, it doesn't have to be Dec 2010 but I feel it will reflect that the PV is nicely under constant pressure.

     

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    John Hammond on BBC news weather just said "nothing particularly cold on the horrizon not in the near future any way"...

     

    so does this mean that there is cold coming soon but not this week?? or does it mean next month?? and of cause he said "nothing particularly cold"

     

    i guess that is open to what you deem to be cold...

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    Don't read too much into it, they don't have a clue what December will bring, they see the same charts we do for the most part, and the same OPI, Northern Hemispehere snow, AO and PV. The models just can't handle all that data well.

     

    As was said a couple of years ago on here, for snow FI is really +24, 48 hours at a push. It is early November and anything in FI is completely useless at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Problem is with the MetO is their computer data is fixated on Climate Change and Global Warming, so basically they should have two types of modelling, one with it added and one without.

     

    Like I said a page ago=wrong

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