Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

That would have knocked the 'tame' in comparison 2010 event into a cocked hat, -17c over a warm sea!!!

 

 

Yes I remember having about 1 and a half inches in Birmingham city centre in that 96 event.

The 96 ones stick in my mind for different reasons.

The first one was the day after my daughters christening and during the second one on the following Sunday, we had to help dig out and push an ambulance which had become stuck trying to attend an emergency.

The second fall was probably the heavier of the two and, certainly around here the roads were quite bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

To show how cold an easterly can get at the end of November, look at this from 1890

Rrea00218901127.gif

=

1350845502845114.jpg

A lot of hopes are understandably focused on a repeat of 2010, but would it be too much to hope for the kind of winter 1890 brought us?

2010 wasn't particularly outstanding as winters measured from Dec - Feb to go as far as records going back to 1700 go, but certainly was as far as recent times go.

But 1890 was a winter that bought a total mean monthly CET of less than 5 for the three months....something we've not gone through for 36 years now. The previous longest run without one was 34 years in the mid 19C and the average is 22 years.

We've not gone through one since 1978......c'mon 2014...deliver us even more than 2010. Though I'd be happy with 2010 or 2012 to be honest! :-)

   

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Its not always the charts that look favourable that deliver potent cold into the UK, Ok I know there is a better cold pooling to the East on these charts but these look far more like one of those scenarios where either the Jet will just blow the cold away or the battle ground will be too far East but once the vertical advection occurred (even a bit too far East), I just knew that run would deliver, most of those CFS 1 month runs I discard after the first 10 days because I cannot be bothered wasting my time but I kept scrolling with this one.

 

 

 

 

cfsnh-0-540_qis1.png

 

 

Compare to this, at this point the 87 one looks better which it turned out to be but as you will see, not by much.

 

archivesnh-1987-1-9-0-0.png?

 

 

 

This looks unlikely to me. the Low heights more powerful or just as powerful as the ones on the GFS over Greenland which people  are writing the potential off on the basis of right now, Yes a stonking cold pooling, yes moderately higher heights to the North East but the angle looks all wrong for a cracking undercut here.

 

 

cfsnh-0-666_izs3.png

 

 

BUT!!!!!!

 

 

 

cfsnh-0-900_icv1.png

 

 

cfsnh-2-900_irp4.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I think the gfs has come out of this battle as the winner. The gfs quite often gets slated...... I don't know why because quite often its on the money. Ukmo too of course very consistent. As for the ECM.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodingdean (near Brighton)
  • Location: Woodingdean (near Brighton)

Hey been reading the model thread what do you lovely people believe please x

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The 96 ones stick in my mind for different reasons.

The first one was the day after my daughters christening and during the second one on the following Sunday, we had to help dig out and push an ambulance which had become stuck trying to attend an emergency.

The second fall was probably the heavier of the two and, certainly around here the roads were quite bad.

Yes November 96 saw a cold second half with notable snowfall in NW Midlands. We had a decent cover later in the month - quite a surprise. It was quite a frosty month. The cold was associated with a dig of cold polar maritime air wrapped around a deep depression. Quite an unusual synoptic for November.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I know its still early November but the differences between last year and this are vast certainly looking better for a cold spell to develop as we move towards December

 

15th nov 13

 

ECH1-144.GIF?12ECH0-144.GIF?12

 

1 year on............

 

ECH1-144.GIF?12ECH0-144.GIF?12

 

image.jpg

 

Going to be a very interesting period coming up

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

I seriously know nothing about model reading etc.. I cannot determine a chart, I'm merely a Mum of 3 who just has an interest in weather and an excitement for snow that was embedded in me as a kid in the 80's with lots of days off school, lol! However.....

I've followed these forums for 4yrs now and have learnt a few things....look for consistency in output, look at overall trends and patterns, look at the bigger picture (inc NH as a whole), look for potential cold and not snow, don't rely on any IMBY forecast until at most 2/3 days away...

What I see atm is all looking like it holds massive potential so I'm not chasing snow for the next few weeks (it's only 9th Nov!) but just looking for all the building blocks to carry on building and all working together to hopefully make a beautiful tapestry down the line!!!

Like I said, I don't know much but the above is what I've learnt from the repeated posts from some sore disappointments and the more experienced on here, but what I see ignored by so many (some regulars!) on here time and time again!! I just don't geddit??!!

Ah well, fingers crossed this all keeps heading in the right direction this year :) xx

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

I think the gfs has come out of this battle as the winner. The gfs quite often gets slated...... I don't know why because quite often its on the money. Ukmo too of course very consistent. As for the ECM.....

The GFS is slated because it is the worst performing model of those three. That is fact

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

I seriously know nothing about model reading etc.. I cannot determine a chart, I'm merely a Mum of 3 who just has an interest in weather and an excitement for snow that was embedded in me as a kid in the 80's with lots of days off school, lol! However.....

I've followed these forums for 4yrs now and have learnt a few things....look for consistency in output, look at overall trends and patterns, look at the bigger picture (inc NH as a whole), look for potential cold and not snow, don't rely on any IMBY forecast until at most 2/3 days away...

What I see atm is all looking like it holds massive potential so I'm not chasing snow for the next few weeks (it's only 9th Nov!) but just looking for all the building blocks to carry on building and all working together to hopefully make a beautiful tapestry down the line!!!

Like I said, I don't know much but the above is what I've learnt from the repeated posts from some sore disappointments and the more experienced on here, but what I see ignored by so many (some regulars!) on here time and time again!! I just don't geddit??!!

Ah well, fingers crossed this all keeps heading in the right direction this year :) xx

I too don't know anything of the science,I just love the excitement around here when things turn wintery and severe! Indeed everything crossed we see a few snowy events in the near future!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: swanley nw kent
  • Location: swanley nw kent

Really looking forward to this winter after last years mild disgusting wash out.Looking through the N Hemisphere, what potential we have so far.How long can the polar vortex be shredded like it is so far.If it does continue maybe a bone chilling Dec like2010 or could we expect some more of the same through out the winter, with all the back round signals in our favour. Fingers crossed for either.

Edited by snowblues
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Really looking forward to this winter after last years mild disgusting wash out.Looking through the N Hemisphere, what potential we have so far.How long can the polar vortex be shredded like it is so far.If it does continue maybe a bone chilling Dec like2010 or could we expect some more of the same through out the winter, with all the back round signals in our favor. Fingers crossed for either.

The building blocks are falling into place but to get a cold spell to our shores still needs jigsaw pieces to come together.. It's ticking along nicely!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

The GFS is slated because it is the worst performing model of those three. That is fact

 

Hopefully the GFS parallel will change that not sure how its actually performing so far but the ECM is consistent with the output, this winter should have better cold potential than of last year but I am not getting my hopes up as I have seen the models go for something for a while only for it to backtrack at a closer range fingers crossed we have a fun and entertaining winter :). And I think the UKMO is a solid model to use as a back up to what the other two show and would rather look no further than 144h.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Hopefully the GFS parallel will change that not sure how its actually performing so far but the ECM is consistent with the output, this winter should have better cold potential than of last year but I am not getting my hopes up as I have seen the models go for something for a while only for it to backtrack at a closer range fingers crossed we have a fun and entertaining winter :). And I think the UKMO is a solid model to use as a back up to what the other two show and would rather look no further than 144h.

Agree with that. It will be good to see the GFS upgrade, with a better resolution and could be a weapon in our armory for cold spell patterns. Model bias is something talked about a lot, it's always good to have the big 3 agreeing on a cold spell. UKMO, GFS & ECM

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

The GFS is slated because it is the worst performing model of those three. That is fact

 

There really is not much difference between the top 3 major global models, certainly not enough difference for any one of them to be "slated". If you look at the verification scores over the course of a year you'll see the GFS as the top performing model several times. Same with UKMO GM. The ECM has an advantage over the GFS with high impact events like tropical cyclone tracks, mainly due to it's higher resolution, however the GFS(P) has the highest resolution now of any global model so that should help overcome that issue.

 

The ECM is a fantastic model but shouldn't be looked at in isolation or held on pedestal because while it's good it's not perfect (winter 2012 anyone?) and like all models it has its own biases. You only have to look at the yesterday's FI changes from the 0Z to the 12Z with stark differences in heights to see that the ECM can be as fickle in FI as any model out there.

 

I always prefer to wait until UKMO, ECM and GFS are all singing from the same hymn sheet. :good:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Location: Northern Ireland

The UK Met Office are going for a very wet, windy and mild first half to winter, I'm afraid...

news.sky.com/story/1370212/…

I don't care what they say. They do not make the weather they forecast...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The UK Met Office are going for a very wet, windy and mild first half to winter, I'm afraid...

news.sky.com/story/1370212/…

 

This is the link Scott tried to post

 

Britain Set For Wetter And Windier Winter

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1370212/britain-set-for-wetter-and-windier-winter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

'The UK is expected to endure an unusually wet and windy winter, the Met Office has warned.'

 

Did they not experience last Winter then?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

'The UK is expected to endure an unusually wet and windy winter, the Met Office has warned.'

 

Did they not experience last Winter then?

 

most realistic forecast I have seen, and can guarantee it will be accurate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I wouldn't worry too much about that press release. it is mainly based on their standard 30 day outlook and (based on current output) that is likely to change in the coming days. In the longer term they say..... "until a predicted increase in cold snaps arrives in the new year".

 

P.S I dont expect the early December outlook to change to widespread snow. I expect it to be more of a colder and drier than average approach as we pick up a cool easterlyt flow as the block becomes established.  IMO Mid december onwards is when we are likely to see the real cold from Russia pump towards us.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I wouldn't worry too much about that press release. it is mainly based on their standard 30 day outlook and (based on current output) that is likely to change in the coming days. In the longer term they say..... "until a predicted increase in cold snaps arrives in the new year".

 

P.S I dont expect the early December outlook to change to widespread snow. I expect it to be more of a colder and drier than average approach as we pick up a cool easterlyt flow as the block becomes established.  IMO Mid december onwards is when we are likely to see the real cold from Russia pump towards us.

 

cold and dry, easterly exceptionally rare for Dec, the wettest month of the year, my 'guess' for Dec is wet, windy and possibly a contender for wettest Dec on record

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The UK Met Office are going for a very wet, windy and mild first half to winter, I'm afraid...

news.sky.com/story/1370212/…

Not sure why we have gone via the media and its spin when we can go straight to the horse's mouth

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/category/met-office-news/

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

As the outlook covers the transition from autumn into winter, there can be big changes in how UK weather is influenced by prevailing weather patterns during the period. Confidence in how the weather patterns will develop later in the period reduces and this is reflected in the outlook when it states “the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases later in the period.â€

 

I wouldn't worry too much about that press release. it is mainly based on their standard 30 day outlook and (based on current output) that is likely to change in the coming days. In the longer term they say..... "until a predicted increase in cold snaps arrives in the new year".

 

P.S I dont expect the early December outlook to change to widespread snow. I expect it to be more of a colder and drier than average approach as we pick up a cool easterlyt flow as the block becomes established.  IMO Mid december onwards is when we are likely to see the real cold from Russia pump towards us.

 

why or why can some of you not put in '....' exactly what WAS printed not your own version?

this is the exact copy from their web site and as W-H has linked to

 

As the outlook covers the transition from autumn into winter, there can be big changes in how UK weather is influenced by prevailing weather patterns during the period. Confidence in how the weather patterns will develop later in the period reduces and this is reflected in the outlook when it states “the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases later in the period.â€

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

cold and dry, easterly exceptionally rare for Dec, the wettest month of the year, my 'guess' for Dec is wet, windy and possibly a contender for wettest Dec on record

 

Cold and dry in December is more common that people like to remember. True, the first 10 days or so of the month are often still wet and unsettled off the back of November (the wettest month in this location) but quite often December brings cold, dry weather, even in milder winters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I like the way people are talking (including professional organisations) are talking about an organised vortex coming into play.

 

gfsnh-0-240_knn1.png

 

 

 

gfsnh-0-240_okz1.png

 

 

gemnh-0-240oww7_mini.png

 

 

 

 

Also In my book the '10%' chance of an Easterly wind later this week is closer to 100%.

 

 

If that's the definition of an organised vortex and 10% chance of an Easterly, can I put in my order now for an organised vortex and 10% chance of an Easterly for the rest of the  winter. Roast Turkey and organised vortex for xmas please with fish, chips and 10% chance of an Easterly wind for the New year.

 

:D  :yahoo:

 

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...