Early winter hopes and chat

[Hocus Pocus]

He must be living below sea level huh.

1991 two weeks snow,granted feb 1986 was a non effort for lying snow low ground in lots of places,but high ground the longest lying snow 6weeks continuous lying snow since 1963,1979 a very snowy winter but not as snowy as the east by looking on here.

1996 not a classic like 1981/82/85 etc etc, but very good on average.

1987 january the coldest maxes on record snow must of stayed for upto 2weeks on low ground.

Not at all 91 delivered but didn't stay around, the ones I've cited all produced the best falls in February around these parts. 1987 was extremely cold but delivered very little in the way of snow, December 85 was good as was January 84. But we are talking about February's and it's a case of the further East you are the  better, bar 79 as that was barnstormer around here producing some of the heaviest falls I've seen and it lasted for two weeks.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[joggs]

Well im not coming on board until the met o start hinting!

Thats not to say all the highly regarded people on here i dont take note of.I love these forums and the cotributions/contributors,really appreciate the time and posts from all.Cheers

[January Snowstorm]

Poor charts this evening compared to y'day.

The 18z moves the heights over Iceland further north again. Of course it could swing back again

[feb1991blizzard]

Poor charts this evening compared to y'day.

The 18z moves the heights over Iceland further north again. Of course it could swing back again

 

Yes, while its a poor 18z in terms of downgrade though (Atlantic trough too far North over us wheras was digging south before, that's the key to unlock the express), its still a massive upgrade on the 18z GFS from the 7th Nov last year, its all about the bigger picture.

[feb1991blizzard]

Could be another good FI on the parallel coming up though - watch this space.

[bluearmy]

Yes, while its a poor 18z in terms of downgrade though (Atlantic trough too far North over us wheras was digging south before, that's the key to unlock the express), its still a massive upgrade on the 18z GFS from the 7th Nov last year, its all about the bigger picture.

And the parallel?

[throwoff]

She's not called the pub run for nothing!

[ukpaul]

As I posted on the MOD thread, it's pointless looking at anything but the parallel run now, GFS have upgraded it significantly.

[feb1991blizzard]

As I posted on the MOD thread, it's pointless looking at anything but the parallel run now, GFS have upgraded it significantly.

 

Remains to be seen whether it will verify significantly better though.

[ukpaul]

Remains to be seen whether it will verify significantly better though.

 

It's worth reading Snowking's post about its significance.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

[feb1991blizzard]

It's worth reading Snowking's post about its significance.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

 

Seems like it will be a big improvement then.

[Yarmy]

It's currently in second place behind the ECM in the verification stats (although it only has 5 days data to compare with the full month in the other models). Only a smidgeon ahead of the UKMO though.

I'd post a link if I could work it out on poxy iOS 8 safari. :-/

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe soon we will start to see more charts like this.

 

[Summer Sun]

Maybe soon we will start to see more charts like this.

 

 

I think most on here would settle for something like this

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I think most on here would settle for something like this

 

 

 

Certainly would although we only got dustings up until the start of next week, I cant remember whether it was the Monday noght or Tuesday night, a potent wave (well only a little kink in the isobars really) meant a really potent band of heavy snow, made its way across the peninnes and we got about 6 inches in 2 and a half hours (gigantic flakes all the way through)

[cyclonic happiness]

There's a real feeling of the 00s excitement on this board today. Even I'm peeing myself looking at the potential.

 

I think it's going to be a slow burner until we get the first snows though in lowland Britain, but there looks like there could be lots of surface cold and frost to play with even if we haven't imported the 'deep cold' (looking at today's outputs)

 

:-D

[Winter Cold]

I was just thinking about December 2010 Summer Sun

 

I really wonder if we're seeing something special setting up again.....???

 

Id love to get a supposedly once in a 100 year event again within 4 years lol, that would shake things up! having said that, to me, March 13 was also a month long very cold spell so i definately beleive something has changed with our weather.

[Don]

I think most on here would settle for something like this

 

 

You're not wrong there! That would certainly take some beating, especially in November.

[terrier]

Well fergie just posted in the mod thread and the met think the easterly has 10% chance of happening with temps staying average with copious amounts of rain. Which also ties in with the extended outlook. So that takes us out to 6th of dec in there long term outlook. Until met come on board I don't see any real cold on the way.

[Winter Cold]

I am too, its just too uncanny!

 

Shame the METO are not onboard, but i bet they said at this time in 2010 that it had a 10% chance. I dont think they once thought that it would be a month long freeze until much later

[ukpaul]

10% chance at 10 days out hours is a pretty good level of probability, at that range you wouldn't get those sort of odds on a particular pattern coming to fruition.

[Summer Sun]

Ben Rich hinting that we have a very small chance of something colder from the east but for the most part its going to remain mild

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/29967201

[Dorsetbred]

Well fergie just posted in the mod thread and the met think the easterly has 10% chance of happening with temps staying average with copious amounts of rain. Which also ties in with the extended outlook. So that takes us out to 6th of dec in there long term outlook. Until met come on board I don't see any real cold on the way.

Kinda like agree with Fergie right now, as the outlook still bodes for mild and wet Atlantic air and it's associated conditions. Think we have some way........ to go before we get to nurcher colder air from any direction other than W/SW.

[Geordiesnow]

The SST'S around the UK look very high and way above average at the moment so we do need some colder air around soon but the reality is, there is no real signs of this at the moment. 

 

I believe temps in the North Sea are around 12-14C at the moment and we are in November! Rather see on the charts more colder shots from the NW than any spectacular set ups that delivers any cold from the East. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

The SST'S around the UK look very high and way above average at the moment so we do need some colder air around soon but the reality is, there is no real signs of this at the moment. 

 

I believe temps in the North Sea are around 12-14C at the moment and we are in November! Rather see on the charts more colder shots from the NW than any spectacular set ups that delivers any cold from the East.

They were anomalously high in November 2010 too and we saw how that turned out - massive convective snow off the North Sea. Of course that was a pretty exceptional setup, and it probably would harm us in more marginal setups, but IMO it's better to get a cold easterly early December than in March when SSTs are low and inhibits convection.