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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Dublin

    my pet spider said something about cold

    Ah, so that's where Maddan gets his forecasts from...

    Edited by snowstorm445
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Another upgrade for wave breaking on the 18z, absolute stonker, scandi ridge about to smash right through the pole and meet up with the Alaskan ridge.

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    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    I see the exacta boys are predicting the end of the world again starting soon...

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    nowt better than a long cold snowy winter, especially in the November, December, January months because the sun doesn't melt it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?

    1947 had moderate levels of soar activity and that didn't turn out to bad.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Is it just me or do certain posters on the model output thread always say that its mild and be negative? It seems like some can never say cold is coming. 

     

    I think some might even be trying to wind people up.And whats with people saying to reserve the cold for December? It is 6th November and days are less than 9 hours long now, of course snow can stick around now if its cold. 

    While I've no doubt there are some out there like that, there's sometimes a bit of a tendency to lump in some rational posters with them at times.  More than just occasionally a set-up will promise the earth and end up delivering North Korea. Those that draw attention to the fact that it might lead to the heady expectations of the masses being fulfilled are treated like those who warned about not drinking too much the night before. Sure enough, the following morning, those with the raging "why oh why" hangovers who cannot even move will not only refuse to acknowledge the warning were valid, they will carry an intense passionate hatred for those who issued them! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?

    I think, while we are (or at least certainly were last month) near solar maximum values the activity looks moderate rather than particularly high or low given how low a peak this cycle has had compared to almost every cycle since the early 1800s. 

    2012/13 had similar solar activity to what we're likely to see this winter and it turned out fine, and there are numerous other examples of blocked winters with moderate-high solar activity - 68/69, 69/70, 77/78(moderate), 78/79, 81/82 and I suppose 2000/01 as well. Generally speaking West QBO with solar max or East QBO with solar min. seems to be the best bets for Strat warmings but -QBO, weakish El Nino (ideally we have to hope it doesn't die down too much over the winter) and high Autumn snow advance over Eurasia are all decent indicators of vortex disruption, and as long we don't get another massive sunspot flaring up I reckon it won't be that much of a factor either way, although if we were at solar minimum it would be even better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    My suspicions were correct. The 6z is a disaster.

     

    This is a pretty decent disaster for the middle of November:

     

    gfsnh-1-276.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes but between each run the direction of the cold air seems to change.

     

    Hi Winter Frost, Could you put your location into your avatar please so we can see where your reporting from when the weather takes a turn..

     

    Many Thanks :)  

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?

     

    Here's a graph of annual sunspots with winter CET values below 3C marked off along the line. It should give an idea of relationship between cold winters and sunspots.

     

    k3XhvdS.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Here's a graph of annual sunspots with winter CET values below 3C marked off along the line. It should give an idea of relationship between cold winters and sunspots.

     

    k3XhvdS.jpg

     

    If I read that correctly, the very interesting bit is that irresepctive of the height of sunspot activity the incidence of colder winters is predominant in the descent from a solar max..?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

     

    Thanks for that Sebastiaan, very interesting and encouraging in equal amounts. Hope that some members get a chance to read this and maybe it will temper some of the knee-jerk reaction on the Mod Thread! :whistling:

     

    I'm certainly content with the way that Northern Hemispheric synoptic patterns are shaping up as we move further into November.

     

    Regards,

    Tom.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Here's a graph of annual sunspots with winter CET values below 3C marked off along the line. It should give an idea of relationship between cold winters and sunspots.

     

    k3XhvdS.jpg

     

    Thank you very much for the graph. BFTV. 

     

    It confirms what I have read in some papers about the coldest European winters being on the downswing of a cycle unless the phase is already established in a deep minimum.

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

    With all the info regarding the storm in the bearing sea any idea when the last big storm similar to this was?? We maybe able to find out what the weather might be like for us as a storm as intense as this doesn't happen every year.925 was the last big storm there.

    After searching the Web I have found out that the last storm similar to this one was 1977 so could we be inline for a winter similar to 77-78???

    Netweather info regarding that winter :1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea!

    Edited by marksiwnc
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    If I read that correctly, the very interesting bit is that irresepctive of the height of sunspot activity the incidence of colder winters is predominant in the descent from a solar max..?

     

    I noticed that too. Taking the change from one year to the next, 27 sub 3C winter CETs have occurred during a strengthening phase of solar cycle, while 45 have occurred during the weakening phase.

     

     

    Thank you very much for the graph. BFTV. 

     

    It confirms what I have read in some papers about the coldest European winters being on the downswing of a cycle unless the phase is already established in a deep minimum.

     

    No worries GF. Have you a link to any of those papers? I'd be interested to see what mechanism they suggest causes this relationship.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    From what I can see for the forseeable get use to very wet weather,maybe the 20th which is a traditional date in November for the first cold spell/snap.

    2 rain songs for now to cheer up up. :acute:

    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77034-what-was-the-last-song-you-listened-to-part-4/page-133#entry3064274

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    Golden retriever's are fantastic and absolutely love snow especially digging in it,so hopefully yours will get his chance this winter. :)

     

    I really hope so, the only thing he dug last year was our entire garden up looking for lord knows what!  :rofl:  :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

     Wow he's a beauty!  :friends:

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

     

     

     

    No worries GF. Have you a link to any of those papers? I'd be interested to see what mechanism they suggest causes this relationship.

     

    Sorry, lost the links I had saved when old comp gave up the ghost. Of course, the authors may have been referring to what has actually been observed rather than giving a hypothesis for why it was likely to happen. The research was from eastern scientists - Russian, Chinese or Japanese.  If I remember correctly, the descent phase is more associated with changes in how solar/QBO interacts on the stratosphere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    I am hoping we see some more records broken this winter whether it be coldest night ever, most snow falling in a 24 hour period or perhaps the snowiest winter on record! Yesterdays frosty morning made me realise just how much I have missed the cold weather.

     

    Also, last winter wasn't quite the same on here, really missed it when it goes bananas at impending snowmageddon and you need an hour to catch up on all the forums and wonderful banter!  :pardon:  :cold:  :friends:

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