Early winter hopes and chat

[TEITS]

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

[Dorsetbred]

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

Like you I find it interesting as my "Gut feel" is that eastern Europe will see the cold, and I think the westerly will be keeping it at bay "and over there"

[Steve C]

I can't find the netweather article I wrote about this winter but here's the UKWW one

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49348-the-severe-winter-of-1928-29-a-special-report-with-times-articles/

 

 

Interesting reading the contemporary reports from the Times.

 

An interesting footnote there too - a report on the event that would become known as the 'St Valentine's Day Massacre'

[Hocus Pocus]

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

I've always found their forecasts to be pretty poor along with most others actually.

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

I must admit that aside from Steve Murr's prediction I have seen no other forecast go for anything below average overall this winter, let alone a 3 month big freeze. A long way to go though yet. We need to see how things pan out over the coming weeks but if we see our ridge to the east becoming positively tilted and pressure falling towards Greenland then we may have to adjust our hopes this winter.

@Scottrichards10 - I was thinking similar, though the forecast I was going to give I trashed after the models decided to park a deep trough close to the UK (Was thinking a greater bias to anticyclonic conditions this month and December followed by a pretty zonal January and a colder February under a potential Scandi block).

[Don]

Rather disappointing reading Accu weather forecast as I tend to find these one of the more reliable long range forecasts. Still with all the mixed winter forecasts I have read so far I shall continue to keep an open mind.

 

That's exactly what I thought when I saw their forecast as I agree, they don't seem to have a bad track record.  On the one hand we seem to have lots of early positive signs, but there seems to be quite a few LRF's going for a mild Winter. However, at least this stops one from getting their hopes up too much only to be disappointed!

[Steve C]

When is the Netweather Winter Forecast coming out, or is a bit too early still?

[beng]

The accuweather forecast is not consistent with a notable negative AO, I guess we'll see, but to me anyway the AO state this winter looks odds on to be negative so I'd be dubious that their forecast will verify.

[Captain Shortwave]

The accuweather forecast is not consistent with a notable negative AO, I guess we'll see, but to me anyway the AO state this winter looks odds on to be negative so I'd be dubious that their forecast will verify.

Actually if you map the forecast you will spot that there will be a positive height anomaly over central and northern Europe stretching into Scandinavia allowing cold air to flood into Eastern Europe on a regular occasion. Pretty consistent with a poorly organised PV and a meridional pattern. Just a case that we are on the wrong side of the blocking pattern. For some areas to be cold, others will naturally be mild as the case you get with a amplified pattern. 

[Summer Sun]

When is the Netweather Winter Forecast coming out, or is a bit too early still?

 

Will either be right at the end of this month or December 1st

 

Early thought's here for those who haven't read it

Edited November 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

Another CFS run with a 2c negative 850hpa anomaly averaged out over Dec - would almost certainly mean some cold snaps / spell of cold weather at some point, yes only the CFS but I find this is the timeframe with that model it starts to cotton on.

 

 

 

 

Plus the ECM 192 will probably steady the ship wrt to toys been thrown out of the pram, yes the modelling of the atmosphere in the next few weeks timeframe has some relevance to the rest of the winter but doesn't guarantee or disprove for definite whether we get a 63, an 89 winter or somewhere in between!!!!

[Snowman.]

Will either be right at the end of this month or December 1st

 

Early thought's here for those who haven't read it

 

Seems pretty decent there.

 

Just don't want a repeat of last year with storms cropping up every week or so.

[terrier]

Don't really get people's disappointment regarding accuweather winter forecast. 15 days of snowfall for the uk during winter that's 15 days more than last year. Less storms. Sounds ok to me. At the end of the day our little Ireland is right next to the Atlantic our default weather will 9 times out of 10 be from the west. Just enjoy any cold spells we get.

[Winter Cold]

Hi all

 

I think were all just desperate to see something wintry, and thats why its such a hard time at the moment. We have a lot of favourable background signals, and a lot of very clever people like Steve Murr and Snowking who can explain it all, but as yet, were not seeing anything for the UK in the model outputs.

 

Its amazing to think that the last time most of England saw a snowflake was March 2013, so thats 20 months ago!!!!!! Incredible realy even for the UK.

 

I am a huge cold and snow fan, but I just have to tell myself that its only November, and its still really too early. As I say, unfortunately for me and others i suspect, were just running out of patience.....

[LomondSnowstorm]

I wouldn't be too concerned about the Accuweather forecast - as we all know trying to get the specifics for NW Europe right is notoriously difficult, moreso than for continental landmasses, so the fact that there does at least appear to be a significant amount of cold in the forecast for eastern Europe is a decent sign, certainly better than if they were predicting basically a blanket mild winter for Europe as they did last time round.

Most of the signals are pointing pretty strongly towards a negative, potentially very negative AO this winter, so there's likely to be at least a few chances for us to get the blocking set up nicely for us, but as ever these things can come together or fall apart for our locale at a few days' notice, so I wouldn't worry too much, or get your hopes up to much either, at this stage.

Anyway, if you really just want a cold LRF to balance things out here's mine   (also, the NW prelim forecast looks colder than average, as do, whether explicitly or implicitly, a number of the US-based forecasters' thoughts) https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4837-preliminary-winter-forecast-201415-return-to-cold/ 

[Steve C]

Will either be right at the end of this month or December 1st

 

Early thought's here for those who haven't read it

 

Thanks for that - for some reason I hadn't spotted it. I don't like the sound of a 'significant wind event' tbh. Looking at the latest parallel GFS run though, we could be facing something in a couple of weeks. 

[virtualsphere]

I wouldn't be too concerned about the Accuweather forecast - as we all know trying to get the specifics for NW Europe right is notoriously difficult, moreso than for continental landmasses, so the fact that there does at least appear to be a significant amount of cold in the forecast for eastern Europe is a decent sign, certainly better than if they were predicting basically a blanket mild winter for Europe as they did last time round.

Most of the signals are pointing pretty strongly towards a negative, potentially very negative AO this winter, so there's likely to be at least a few chances for us to get the blocking set up nicely for us, but as ever these things can come together or fall apart for our locale at a few days' notice, so I wouldn't worry too much, or get your hopes up to much either, at this stage.

Anyway, if you really just want a cold LRF to balance things out here's mine   (also, the NW prelim forecast looks colder than average, as do, whether explicitly or implicitly, a number of the US-based forecasters' thoughts) https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4837-preliminary-winter-forecast-201415-return-to-cold/ 

 

Good point.  Here's their forecast for last winter: 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

 

"Even with a projected stormier end to the winter, rain and snow should be no more than average for the British Isles"

Not completely out, but certainly no forecast of the excessive rain and wind that we actually experienced: just a wet end to the season.  

 

It doesn't seem as if it would take a great deal of tweaking for their 2014-15 forecast to play out better than suggested for cold in the UK - note the reference to southerly and not SW'ly winds, possibly suggesting a block to the E, and the reference to wet weather over Spain and S Europe, suggesting low pressure there.  If the pattern shifts further west, we could end up with a more favourable pattern for cold which would also fit in with some of the signals currently suggested by others (negative AO, Scandi blocking etc.).  Of course, it could also be that we'll end up the wrong side of any blocking for cold, but certainly all to play for at this stage.

[beng]

Actually if you map the forecast you will spot that there will be a positive height anomaly over central and northern Europe stretching into Scandinavia allowing cold air to flood into Eastern Europe on a regular occasion. Pretty consistent with a poorly organised PV and a meridional pattern. Just a case that we are on the wrong side of the blocking pattern. For some areas to be cold, others will naturally be mild as the case you get with a amplified pattern.

Yes, you're right about them going for Scandi blocking having read it in more detail. I don't think you could get a scandi high dominated winter, combined with a notable negative AO that didn't result in a below average winter here - I'd be interested though if someone can post an example winter where that happened. It would have to have been a bit unlucky from a cold lovers perspective. Edited November 5, 2014 by beng

[feb1991blizzard]

Better separation of energy on the 18z GFS than on the 12z, whether it will allow the trough to dig south and become cut off and the Atlantic heights to link up with the heights to the east I don't know, better than the 12z though, by far.

 

EDIT : it didn't unfortunately!!!

 

However,

 

This is my humble opinion only but I would rather have a small PV over Greenland in mid Nov than a large organised PV elsewhere as it would only be a matter of time for any brief cold was blown away and then we would have an even bigger and longer lasting problem, that wouldn't have been my view after last winter and can see why people will be fearing the 18z GFS, but after reading posts about the OPI and looking at some of the cold winters that resulted, its certainly not uncommon to have a wet Mid Nov and a corking winter.

Edited November 5, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

My first post in this thread

 

i have noticed something different in the last few weeks to this time last year,and that is my dog(Alaskan malamute) has not shed a hair,where as last year i got bags full off him,that tells me winter is coming and maybe he senses it

 

here is my pooch

 

[andy989]

Had a gander at the model moan/ramp thread and thought I stumbled into the Daily mail winter thread. Anyhow, first notable frost here tonight, the air feels lovely and fresh.  

[Hocus Pocus]

I've got this nagging doubt in the back of my mind that the long range models night be onto something for the majority of this winter and if we are to see any sustained cold then December may well  be the month, more so with the projected wave activity occurring in the Stratosphere and subsequent warming on the  Canadian side that may follow. Could we see a watered down version of December 2010 and then what followed thereafter?

[Mapantz]

My first post in this thread

 

i have noticed something different in the last few weeks to this time last year,and that is my dog(Alaskan malamute) has not shed a hair,where as last year i got bags full off him,that tells me winter is coming and maybe he senses it

 

here is my pooch

 

DSCF0360.JPG

If it's any consolation, my cat is shedding fur like nobody's business! The recent warm conditions have probably caused it, so I'd say there's nowt in it.

[Yarmy]

I'm sure it's all in jest, but Nature is reactive. Trees, dogs, and insects cannot predict the weather.

 

Anyway, I saw a gaggle of geese flying...um..north yesterday.

[Ravelin]

Anyway, I saw a gaggle of geese flying...um..north yesterday.

 

At this time of year I see geese flying North most mornings. Then again I also see them flying South most evenings. They roost overnight in the fields and on a loch to the south of our village but feed during the day on the coast to the north east of the village, so it's not because they've suddenly got lost or something.