Early winter hopes and chat

[summer blizzard]

For those who want to throth at the mouth i just though i'd say this..

 

The 3 most negative AO winters were 69, 77 and 10.

 

All 3 had -QBO values - Check.

 

All 3 were Nino's - Check.

 

And while i can't comment on 1968 we do know that the October's of 76 and 09 had some of the highest SAI and OPI values on record - Check.

[cheeky_monkey]

If this winter is cold and snowy im going to resign and go back to Canada..im mean what is the point?

[DAVID SNOW]

If this winter is cold and snowy im going to resign and go back to Canada..im mean what is the point?

 

 

Bye  !

[carinthian]

How I would rate and summarise the recent winters:

 

2006-07 - Very poor but had one okay snowfall in February. [2/10]

2007-08 - Quite poor but some snow later on. [3/10]

2008-09 - Some snow, especially in December and February. Not bad! [5.5/10]

2009-10 - A near perfect winter! Cold and snowy from mid-December to mid-January and some snow again in February. Best winter I've experienced! [9.5/10]

2010-11 - Another excellent winter! Exceptionally cold from late November to mid-January. However, the very mild end to January and February dampened it slightly. [7/10]

2011-12 - Some cold snaps in December and a very mild January, but cold and snow in early February made up for it a bit. [4/10]

2012-13 - A long chilly winter with some decent snowfalls. January and March were brilliant! Not a bad winter either. [6/10]

2013-14 - Atrocious winter! Very mild, wet and windy with very little snow or frost. Hopefully no winter ever goes down the same path as that one did! [0/10] 

 

2014-15 - Anyone's guess, but hopefully snowy!

Was not in the uk for most of those winters but seems a good scoring rate for you guys over there. My 10/10 from memory 1962/63 ( one off mind blowing winter that would go off the scales for many of you youngsters not around then ) 1978/79  would classify as 10/10 and quite a few in the 1960s would rate 7/10. 

[stewfox]

If this winter is cold and snowy im going to resign and go back to Canada..im mean what is the point?

 

'What is your point ' of posting in this thread ? If you like mild winters just say so.

 

We know you didn't get 'record breaking cold /snow last year' but we know you get far more then we did in the UK

 

We have got 'the point ' your not keen on cold/snow.

 

Let those who want snow 'enjoy' looking/talking about it.

Edited October 31, 2014 by stewfox

[Weather-history]

How I would rate and summarise the recent winters:

 

2006-07 - Very poor but had one okay snowfall in February. [2/10]

2007-08 - Quite poor but some snow later on. [3/10]

2008-09 - Some snow, especially in December and February. Not bad! [5.5/10]

2009-10 - A near perfect winter! Cold and snowy from mid-December to mid-January and some snow again in February. Best winter I've experienced! [9.5/10]

2010-11 - Another excellent winter! Exceptionally cold from late November to mid-January. However, the very mild end to January and February dampened it slightly. [7/10]

2011-12 - Some cold snaps in December and a very mild January, but cold and snow in early February made up for it a bit. [4/10]

2012-13 - A long chilly winter with some decent snowfalls. January and March were brilliant! Not a bad winter either. [6/10]

2013-14 - Atrocious winter! Very mild, wet and windy with very little snow or frost. Hopefully no winter ever goes down the same path as that one did! [0/10] 

 

2014-15 - Anyone's guess, but hopefully snowy!

Manchester Winter Index on those winters

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

[carinthian]

I can believe it. Heard a lot of stories of mainly 1978-79 from my parents, especially the blizzard on New Year's Eve. If we get one of those this year, it would be perfect if it was exactly a week earlier.

I can remember the New Years Party in the pub and walking home in blowing snow and sub zero temps. The hills above Macclesfied had some amazing drifts. Although I was a young kid in 62/63 and remember the prolonged cold, lying snow, frozen pipes ect, 78/79 stands out for some intense cold and snow for some reason.

C

[Polar Maritime]

79/79 we had some very heavy snow and drifting C, You are correct TM will have the stats as i was not collecting then.

[stewfox]

I can believe it. Heard a lot of stories of mainly 1978-79 from my parents, especially the blizzard on New Year's Eve. If we get one of those this year, it would be perfect if it was exactly a week earlier.

 

I use to keep detailed diaries back then (age 13) and although its fun to read that I saw Buck Rogers part 5 and 6 or noted for example Luton's away match to York in the  FA Cup 3rd round was cancelled on 6/1/79 etc etc . The cold/ snow details I wrote down amaze me.

 

The history of my snow man I can see my 4ft snow man was 3ft by the 26/1/79 and I know I cheated near the end by taking ice from the freezer to keep it going.  I think  my dad cotton on in July of that year.

 

The snow event of 15/2/79 is interesting (I lived in surrey) although wonder women and European Superstars I mention not so.

Edited October 31, 2014 by stewfox

[Dancerwithwings]

Not everyone likes cold and snow, so let's be fair and let them have a say too.

Not to sure what he's point was, but if he doesn't like cold & snow some how i don't think he would go back to Canada.

 

Not 100% sure, but it seems that's why cheeky monkey wants to go back and after last Winter here in the UK, I wouldn't bloody blame him.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I'm feeling optimistic about this winter, not sure whether its because of how atrocious the last one was or because I may know a bit more about things that effect it. Whatever the reason, Its gotta be good!!

[DAVID SNOW]

I'm feeling optimistic about this winter, not sure whether its because of how atrocious the last one was or because I may know a bit more about things that effect it. Whatever the reason, Its gotta be good!!

 

Waxwings and Grebes,..............nuff said.......

[Cloud 10]

Polar vortex having a much tougher time establishing this year compared to 2013.

 

2013..  2014..

 

By this time last year it was already looking  very "vortexy" and a fairly rounded shape which is in sharp contrast to this year which looks very dis-organised.

 

 

Long may it continue.

[Yarmy]

Until I see a snow-laden flow coming from the North to East quadrant at T48, I'm not counting a single Gallus gallus domesticus.

Still, it can't be worse than last year.

Can it?

[bluearmy]

For those who want to throth at the mouth i just though i'd say this..

 

The 3 most negative AO winters were 69, 77 and 10.

 

All 3 had -QBO values - Check.

 

All 3 were Nino's - Check.

 

And while i can't comment on 1968 we do know that the October's of 76 and 09 had some of the highest SAI and OPI values on record - Check.

prior to yesterday, the warmest Halloween on record was 1968? Perhaps we could use the HTI (Halloween temp indicator) going forward!

[Summer Sun]

Early thought's from Brian Gaze at the weather outlook

 

Conclusion

On balance weather patterns during recent seasons have in my view been more likely to be followed by a mild rather than cold winter. Again this is quite a subjective view which others may disagree with.

 

Summary

 

I'd be very surprised if it's as mild and wet as last year's! That's not really saying much of course as 2013/14 was exceptional. At this stage of the autumn if I was forced to make a call I'd go for milder and wetter than average season.

 

Despite this I'd not be surprised to see a blocked cold pattern developing for a time during December and as we saw in 2010 these set ups can be difficult to break down.

 

January may end up quite stormy again with significant snowfall over higher ground in the north. This type of pattern rarely delivers snow to lowland parts of the UK, especially those in the south.

 

February could turn out to be the joker in the pack. The Atlantic tends to back off later in the winter and if the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negative as the OPI suggests colder spells could develop.

 

Detailed initial thoughts

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=2485

[Paul_1978]

Early thought's from Brian Gaze at the weather outlook

 

Conclusion

On balance weather patterns during recent seasons have in my view been more likely to be followed by a mild rather than cold winter. Again this is quite a subjective view which others may disagree with.

 

Summary

 

I'd be very surprised if it's as mild and wet as last year's! That's not really saying much of course as 2013/14 was exceptional. At this stage of the autumn if I was forced to make a call I'd go for milder and wetter than average season.

 

Despite this I'd not be surprised to see a blocked cold pattern developing for a time during December and as we saw in 2010 these set ups can be difficult to break down.

 

January may end up quite stormy again with significant snowfall over higher ground in the north. This type of pattern rarely delivers snow to lowland parts of the UK, especially those in the south.

 

February could turn out to be the joker in the pack. The Atlantic tends to back off later in the winter and if the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negative as the OPI suggests colder spells could develop.

 

Detailed initial thoughts

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=2485

He's pretty much covered all bases then there then.

[johnholmes]

for skiers=winter predicted to arrive, at altitude say over 4000ft, during next week.

Wengen/Lauberhorn forecast as an example below

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/europe/switzerland/weather-wengen/details/S067281/

 

all based on GFS output of course.

[summer blizzard]

He's pretty much covered all bases then there then.

 

Not really. Relatively blocked December, unsettled (by the sounds of it) January followed by a cold February.

 

Vague but still relatively clear.

[johnholmes]

re 'covered all bases' or 'vague', just what on earth do you expect anyone writing a long range forecast to do?

It is impossible at 15 days to do more than suggest the weather type so how on earth at 3 months can anyone do more than suggest a weather type? Indeed anyone who does start putting dates of severe frost and heavy snowfall is, best I don't use the word, but it is as much use as a chocolate fireguard. IF any of it turns out correct it is simply luck no more.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

re 'covered all bases' or 'vague', just what on earth do you expect anyone writing a long range forecast to do?

It is impossible at 15 days to do more than suggest the weather type so how on earth at 3 months can anyone do more than suggest a weather type? Indeed anyone who does start putting dates of severe frost and heavy snowfall is, best I don't use the word, but it is as much use as a chocolate fireguard. IF any of it turns out correct it is simply luck no more.

Sorry John, that is MetO closed circuit view 

 

BFTP

[Paul_1978]

re 'covered all bases' or 'vague', just what on earth do you expect anyone writing a long range forecast to do?

It is impossible at 15 days to do more than suggest the weather type so how on earth at 3 months can anyone do more than suggest a weather type? Indeed anyone who does start putting dates of severe frost and heavy snowfall is, best I don't use the word, but it is as much use as a chocolate fireguard. IF any of it turns out correct it is simply luck no more.

It was only a quip. Perhaps I should have added a smiley. :-)

[johnholmes]

Sorry John, that is MetO closed circuit view 

 

BFTP

 

nope, my honest opinion

Edited November 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[TEITS]

I agree with John.

 

In my opinion any forecast that goes into precise detail is a waste of time and is not based on any scientific evidence. This is because scientifically it is impossible and you cannot do this for 20 days out let alone months. A typical example of the type of forecast im referring to is below.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

 

Utter tripe referring to a HP to the E of the UK in early December and SE,ly winds.

[Northern Sky]

Not really. Relatively blocked December, unsettled (by the sounds of it) January followed by a cold February.

 

Vague but still relatively clear.

To be fair to Paul 1978 the description above combined with a conclusion of "milder and wetter than average" really does seem to cover all bases!