Early winter hopes and chat

[Dancerwithwings]

I'm constantly lookin out the window when snow is predicted, even through the night if I'm tired I set an alarm to wake me up at regular intervals lol.

Prozac nights and all the coffee you can drink... Oh! them night's seeing who and where it's falling first, on 'Net Weather' of course

but you mentioned "during the nights when snow is predicted" them night's also when we are expecting a good covering and guess what 'NOW'T'

But every now and again when all the factors come together it's just the best.

 

Let's hope all the factors well and truly come together this winter....HAPPY DAYS :cold:

Edited October 22, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[gsteruk]

I really hope we get a chance this year to do some lamppost watching, last year still hurts lol 

[High Altitude]

It's funny but when snow is predicted I actually get butterflies in my stomach and generally feel like a little boy again. I don't know why. Always been the same since I can remember. I don't even need an alarm to wake me up, it's in built every two hours through the night my eyes spring open and I'm at the window - usually nothing but that excitment and the chase for me is what it's all about. Nice to know I'm not crazy alone.

[Allseasons-Si]

Talking of lamp posts,i am glad i didn't run the lecky bill for it last year,that was a hell of a lot of lamp post watching for nowt

[Mucka]

Even though it is pure fantasy the CFS was a joy to look at for last week of November.

Getting into the Winter mood now.

[carinthian]

Presently a blizzard rages in the Austrian Alps. Today we have our next 3 month seasonal forecast to include NOV/DEC/JAN  ( Eastern Alps prediction ) The results do not make for good reading. Temperatures above average with less than 20% chance of a colder than average 3 months. January 15 is the most frightening with a warm projection of  60 % plus chance of above average temps. SWly flow to dominate with generally benign conditions.

Looking at synoptic out -puts, high pressure dominates over Europe, with westerly above 50 N . Does indicate some Northerly inclusions into UK at times but looks progressive.

Anyway, its just a seasonal prediction and of course do go wrong, hopefully, this one does !

 C

[terrier]

Just been reading roger j smiths winter forecast in the seasonal model thread. And I think there is something for everyone there snow mild gales storms. Sounds like another winter of extremes ahead.

[Summer Sun]

Roger J Smith's winter forecast: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=3058634

[MattH]

Morning all...

 

Rather than a scientific post this is more a case of passing on thoughts, hopes and general comments really seeing I've got a spare 5 mins and without question I am a 'lover' of winter rather than summer.

 

Starting with last winter and I use the word 'winter' lightly as to me it was nothing more than 6 months of autumn that started in September and continued until February. Clearly the UK can get winters like last year but that was as much of an extreme as was December 2010 for example, if you ask me. The complete lack of any hope within the forecast models from a break in the synoptic pattern last winter was difficult to watch, especially when I had to forecast it pretty much every day. The relentless deep arctic cold over in E Canada that continued to flood out of E Canada into the W Atlantic to allow deep lows to develop and then slam into the UK time after time was, without question, difficult to watch and memories of previous winters were always in my mind. It's quite ironic in a way how March 2013 was one of the coldest March months in years and produced that quite impressive blizzard around the 21st and 22nd of month. Up to that point the thought of a winter like last year was never in anyones mind really and essentially that's the last time the UK saw anything significant in terms of cold weather, so it's long over due.

 

Onto this winter and my optimism is high. This is primarily due to all the factors that many people are aware about these days as they all get discussed in far more detailed than in years past. Clearly no-one exactly knows what this winter will deliver despite all the positives which are evident. Personally I hope, after last winter, that it's as cold as possibly can be and those who like cold weather at winter get some payback for last winter. It's sort of the reverse of those who want as much heat and summer-weather in summer. My money is definitely on a colder than average winter, call that a brief and to the point forecast if you will, but from what I've seen within the last 4 to 6 weeks and continue to see if someone sat me down and asked for a winter forecast (which will happen in November) then I will, without much hesitation, say that overall colder than average conditions will dominate the winter despite the 'usual' few weeks of milder, wetter and windier interludes which even in the coldest of cold winters can happen simply because of where the UK is geographically etc.

 

So, personally I'm excited as the next person regarding this coming winter, clearly meteorologically I need to be a bit more balanced, but that aside I really do honestly believe that this coming winter will produce some decent cold weather. It may take time to arrive as another early cold spell in November or December (as per end of 2010) may not develop, but emphasis could be on mid to late winter given that I also expected a SSW event this winter, perhaps around mid to late December into January which again may help to provide the synoptics for colder weather during mid to late winter. One things for sure the usual 'highs and lows' will develop in the coming weeks as we watch the model runs and here's hoping there's more 'highs than lows' this year and that has a double meaning if you know what I mean!

 

Regards to all,

 

Matt.

[The Post-modern Winter]

Just been reading roger j smiths winter forecast in the seasonal model thread. And I think there is something for everyone there snow mild gales storms. Sounds like another winter of extremes ahead.

 I'd like to congratulate you Terrier on finally posting the correct reference to Rodger's thoughts on Winter. Only took three attempts . . 

 

Additionally, seems to be an interesting amount of potential for a few decent/good cold spells, particularly in my location. A very satisfying forecast from my viewpoint. 

Edited October 23, 2014 by The Post-modern Winter

[Don]

Morning all...

 

Rather than a scientific post this is more a case of passing on thoughts, hopes and general comments really seeing I've got a spare 5 mins and without question I am a 'lover' of winter rather than summer.

 

Starting with last winter and I use the word 'winter' lightly as to me it was nothing more than 6 months of autumn that started in September and continued until February. Clearly the UK can get winters like last year but that was as much of an extreme as was December 2010 for example, if you ask me. The complete lack of any hope within the forecast models from a break in the synoptic pattern last winter was difficult to watch, especially when I had to forecast it pretty much every day. The relentless deep arctic cold over in E Canada that continued to flood out of E Canada into the W Atlantic to allow deep lows to develop and then slam into the UK time after time was, without question, difficult to watch and memories of previous winters were always in my mind. It's quite ironic in a way how March 2013 was one of the coldest March months in years and produced that quite impressive blizzard around the 21st and 22nd of month. Up to that point the thought of a winter like last year was never in anyones mind really and essentially that's the last time the UK saw anything significant in terms of cold weather, so it's long over due.

 

Onto this winter and my optimism is high. This is primarily due to all the factors that many people are aware about these days as they all get discussed in far more detailed than in years past. Clearly no-one exactly knows what this winter will deliver despite all the positives which are evident. Personally I hope, after last winter, that it's as cold as possibly can be and those who like cold weather at winter get some payback for last winter. It's sort of the reverse of those who want as much heat and summer-weather in summer. My money is definitely on a colder than average winter, call that a brief and to the point forecast if you will, but from what I've seen within the last 4 to 6 weeks and continue to see if someone sat me down and asked for a winter forecast (which will happen in November) then I will, without much hesitation, say that overall colder than average conditions will dominate the winter despite the 'usual' few weeks of milder, wetter and windier interludes which even in the coldest of cold winters can happen simply because of where the UK is geographically etc.

 

So, personally I'm excited as the next person regarding this coming winter, clearly meteorologically I need to be a bit more balanced, but that aside I really do honestly believe that this coming winter will produce some decent cold weather. It may take time to arrive as another early cold spell in November or December (as per end of 2010) may not develop, but emphasis could be on mid to late winter given that I also expected a SSW event this winter, perhaps around mid to late December into January which again may help to provide the synoptics for colder weather during mid to late winter. One things for sure the usual 'highs and lows' will develop in the coming weeks as we watch the model runs and here's hoping there's more 'highs than lows' this year and that has a double meaning if you know what I mean!

 

Regards to all,

 

Matt.

 

Thanks Matt

 

Needless to say I hope your thoughts will be close to the mark!

[Metjet]

Definitely hoping for some good early winter weather this year. Any snow in December and early January would be a dream, particularly because I'd be back home from university then with lots of time off. Whereas I find searching for signs of snow into February a bit more tiresome, plus everyone is back working after the Christmas break. So basically snow over Christmas time - even if the rest of winter was rubbish and mild, would make it a good winter for me!

[Summer Sun]

The Beijing Climate Centre has updated for October and it shows the temp EM & ML as 'warm' for winter

 

 

Rain EM & ML is mixed but most areas look to be slightly above normal

 

 

Onto the anomalies and the surface temperature is average to slightly above normal

 

 

Rainfall on the anomaly is average

 

 

A quick look at the January to March period and that also shows 'warm' on the EM & ML

 

 

Rain EM & ML is similar to the DEC to FEB period which is mixed but most areas may start and become slightly drier than normal

 

Anomalies for the JAN to MAR period show as slightly above average UK wide

 

 

Rain again is average

 

 

So the met office ens mean maps and the Beijing Climate Centre continue to go for a milder winter whereas Jamstec is still going for a colder than average winter with just one more update next month before winter arrives

[Gael_Force]

It is a bit different to other output in how it sees 500mb heights - still arrives at overall positive surface temperatures - it has a NINO 3-4 of about +1C which will be driving up temps in the forecast.

 

[terrier]

The bejing update is a real downer was hoping this model would have sided with the jamstec. I know the bejing model is by all accounts rated highly. So we seem to have the met and bejing model agaisnt the jamstec. Which one will be right. In the words of Harry hill Fight. Lol

[feb1991blizzard]

It is a bit different to other output in how it sees 500mb heights - still arrives at overall positive surface temperatures - it has a NINO 3-4 of about +1C which will be driving up temps in the forecast.

 

 

 

A Nino 3.4 of 1c would do us fine as long as the SST's right next to the Peruvian coast are lower.

[Cloud 10]

An absolute snorter from the CFS for December.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

An absolute snorter from the CFS for December.

 

cfsnh-3-12-2014.png

 

Almost an exact repeat of 2010, almost to the day and the exact Northerly and look what happens afterwards!!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1260&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

An absolute snorter from the CFS for December.

 

cfsnh-3-12-2014.png

I knew the CFS was an accurate model, come on early cold I know your coming

 

BFTP

[mcweather]

An absolute snorter from the CFS for December.

 

cfsnh-3-12-2014.png

 Yes cloud ten and the the weds12z cfs 9 month run reflects that with some cracking daily charts from the 8th Dec onwards, would be looking at a christmas snowfest if that lot came off. here's hoping.

[stewfox]

All very sad...what's the matter with people???

 

Some of us like snow 

Edited October 23, 2014 by stewfox

[Mair Snaw]

Watching "The Day After Tomorrow" got to get me snow fix early....cant wait for winter to get here and give us some real weather.....ive feeling for a white xmas this year....

[Skyraker]

I'm constantly lookin out the window when snow is predicted, even through the night if I'm tired I set an alarm to wake me up at regular intervals lol.

I wake the missus up if it's snowing.... she never seems to appreciate it though.

[Daniel Williams]

Rather exited now after seeing a lot of the latest charts roll on December!

[knocker]

Rather exited now after seeing a lot of the latest charts roll on December!

 

As a matter of interest what are you excited about?