Early winter hopes and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

Ian Brown posts on Twitter now, instead of here for some reason. He only got a very small following on there though. Looks like he doesn't think much of the viability of the OPI and labels it this year's fad. He thinks we are going to have another 1990s style mild winter this year, although the signs (the Stratosphere and OPI) are there in my opinion for a colder winter than last year.

Having said that, to be fair to Ian Brown, he did forecast last year's winter correctly, and has had a better accuracy rate than many of the notorious forecasters, even though some of winters in the last few years did not go to plan for him.

As autumn is here and winter is coming closer, this post formally marks my return to posting on this forum, commenting on the trials and tribulations of another upcoming UK winter.

 

I will gladly take a Dec 90, Feb 91, Dec 93, Feb 94, Winter 95-96, the 90s were a massive downgrade on the 80s but still not as bad as the naughties in my opinion.

[Neilsouth]

Having said that, to be fair to Ian Brown, he did forecast last year's winter correctly, and has had a better accuracy rate than many of the notorious forecasters, even though some of winters in the last few years did not go to plan for him.

 

 

He was forecasting a mild winter EVERY year, the m o d e r n winter to be more precise! So he gets it right once as his dice finally rolled a 6.

He didn't forecast any of the cold snow periods we had or the 2010 freeze up

[Eugene]

Notice Ian isn't around when the past 8 months have been incredibly mild, he only cares about winter mildness it seems.  

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec October update is in and its still going for below normal temperatures for winter, Septembers update is on the right to compare the 2 updates and it shows some big changes over mainland Europe with many now going slightly above normal whilst the UK remains below normal

 

 

Precipitation amounts are shown to be slightly above normal, Septembers update is on the right to show the changes

 

Edited October 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[egret]

Hmm, trending a bit towards less cold and wetter than previous prediction, but still in line with what I would have expected from the current point on the solar cycle (from a rather weak solar maximum) - other forecasts (NAO , OPI trends etc ) seemingly suggesting an overall colder outlook - but yes with interruptions rather than cold throughout winter.

 

IMO the indications still look set  for a 'normal proper' winter rather than an really cold and snowy one. Ie cold incursions. I am still quietly hoping however that the warm N Atlantic and very warm E Channel could result in at least decent snowfall IMBY from a channel low.

 

I just wish I could of held off model watching for another two months - it does get compulsive!! (and the memory of model output events of November /early December 2008 do not help me to wait until after Christmas)

Jamstec October update is in and its still going for below normal temperatures for winter, Septembers update is on the right to compare the 2 updates and it shows some big changes over mainland Europe with many now going slightly above normal whilst the UK remains below normal

 

 

Precipitation amounts are shown to be slightly above normal, Septembers update is on the right to show the changes

 

Edited October 21, 2014 by egret

[peborant]

Hello guys, 

 

first let me introduce myself, I am this twenty-something catalan boy from Barcelona who grew up wishing for white christmas (in all earnest I have never experienced one but we were close in 2006 :/ ). Anyway, I already got to see my city blanketed a few times as winters have grown slightly colder compared to the nineties. Nothing you cannot relate to in the BIsles, surprisingly enough Iberia and Britain are really close when it comes to weather patterns, e.g. March 2013 was the coldest here since 1962 -and I was in Edinburgh btw-  in the UK and at the same time it was exceedengly rainy in the whole of Spain. 

 

In Barcelona the serious snow happened in...8th march 2010. Heaviest snow since January 1985. Because that day I was in a city in the outskirts at 900ft, I saw accumulations of up to 20cm and snow fell between 0º and -2.5º since 11am till 7pm(very unusual and weird timing too, clearly it was a proper cold air ´bubble´). Down by the beach of Barcelona there were around 2-5cm but temps barely dipped below zero and you could tell the difference. However, the whole metropolitan area collapsed around 4pm, people stuck in trains for hours in the middle of nowhere...The intensity felt for a time as if it were a summer storm (very common, several each season with a peak in sept-oct), the likes of which I have yet to see in Britain. Only that it was terrifying, joyful snow. To cut it short, as soon as it stopped snowing and the temperature slowly rose above 0 in the metro area, most of the snow melted overnight and definitely by morning. I believe the max temp next day was a "cold" 7º. 

 

And then after that the glorious winter of 2013 happened. December was ok, had like 3-4 days of snow and several air frosts, January was increasingly good with a few good snowfalls that unfortunately in the 'hole' where Edinburgh is would never stay for longer than a few hours at best, however as soon as you got to the outer hills there were 25cm easy and it did stay in Arthur's Seat, though I only measured 13cm up there. February was a bit of a bore, though we did get some sleet and snow, too...and then another blessed March, this one even more lenghtly so. Best bit is, it started off rather mild, and there was a touch of spring in the air, some leaves seemed to blossom, as did flowers on the Meadows. Up in the hills most of the snow melted but there were still some visible patches. Suddenly I (and possibly you) started to see those charts, those astonishing charts. I'd never believed I would experience -15º at 850hpa in the Far West -of Eurasia ha ha. Poor trees and daffofils did have their spring hopes postponed for a good three weeks, snow lain on the ground of town for a couple of days, longer the further up (Brunstfield, Marchmont, Oxgangs) and on top of Arthur's Seat till 4th April, which is nothing but a (beautiful) coastal marginal hill of 250m. Snow stayed probably a week or two longer in the hills, shamefully I never went back after the melt, they were not as alluring and they'd become a huge puddle!

 

Apologies for the rant and thank you very much if you have made it down here. I am hopeful this winter will be a cold one, hopes being based on snow extend and a little hunch haha. I am happy today as it is the first day that the 0º 850hpa has visited the Isles properly and the chill in the air after Gonzalo confirms it! Winter most definitely is coming. 

Enjoy your evening!

 

PS Attached there might be a photo of today's cold snap at 15.30BST showing the cold air 'tongue' descending NW over the Continent via British Isles, and thus giving birth to heavy showers in the Lancashire-Midlands corridor. And they are pretty freaky too, can tell you, I am writing from Manchester by the way! It is a pleasure to meet you (all), sorry I've been reading you for a good two years but I am a bit shy and don't think I can contribute with much more knowledge as some people here are amazing and teach me a lot. But I do hope you enjoy the little anecdotes  

[Cloud 10]

Hola! peborant,welcome to the forum and a nice 1st post.

[egret]

Hi Peborant - I guess you also belong in the Midlands and SW Regional group so welcome for there too!!!

Always good to compare our experiences with those on the continent.

[ditch]

Evening guys,

Very first post after years of reading the topics on net weather, must say some very interesting posts and opinions. Me, I love the winters cold and the summers warm and dry. I have been a weather nut and a lover of cold winters since I can remember being a young boy. Back in those days during the 1970s, I remember as a small child on winter nights looking out of the window lamp post watching. I would be waiting for the first snow flake to fall when the weatherman on the bbc news at 9pm had predicted the rain to turn to snow. Happy days!

I have been lucky to have experienced some cold winters in the 1970s and especially the winter of 81/82 and more recently 09/10. So what about this winter, well no science behind my thoughts only a general feeling I have each year, which over the years my wife lets me know I tend to get more right than wrong.

This winter I feel will be a typical 1970s winter, 2 or more major nationwide snow events mixed in with mild incursions. More frost and fog and cold calm days where the sun shines and the frost stays in the ground. Living on an island we will still get the wet and windy periods. However, not the very wet winter of 13/14. I guess for cold lovers a better winter overall.

So there we have it! I maybe completely wrong with my predictions but winters is coming and If you are like me? I can't wait to see the first snow flake fall.

[Dancerwithwings]

BIG welcome peborant & ditch.....ditch, ya quoted " I remember as a small child on winter nights looking out of the window lamp post watching."

that made me chuckle, most if not all still do it..that's one thing we never grow out of 

 

By the way put your Locations in your profiles so we all know where your abodes are... and again welcome

Edited October 21, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Daniel*]

Welcome both of you its always great when you leave the nest

It took me a year to get the courage seems silly in hindsight, I expect some snow this winter, but some decent accumulations please, instead possible brief spell of snow amounting to a pathetic 2cm

Edited October 21, 2014 by Daniel*

[ditch]

Dancerwithwings

Thanks for the big welcome, and yes I still lamp post watch. The wife and kids think I'm crazy leaving the outside lights on during the night when snow is predicted.

[ditch]

Daniel,

Thank you for the warm welcome and Yes! I have at last left the nest.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hello guys, 

 

first let me introduce myself, I am this twenty-something catalan boy from Barcelona who grew up wishing for white christmas (in all earnest I have never experienced one but we were close in 2006 :/ ). Anyway, I already got to see my city blanketed a few times as winters have grown slightly colder compared to the nineties. Nothing you cannot relate to in the BIsles, surprisingly enough Iberia and Britain are really close when it comes to weather patterns, e.g. March 2013 was the coldest here since 1962 -and I was in Edinburgh btw-  in the UK and at the same time it was exceedengly rainy in the whole of Spain. 

 

In Barcelona the serious snow happened in...8th march 2010. Heaviest snow since January 1985. Because that day I was in a city in the outskirts at 900ft, I saw accumulations of up to 20cm and snow fell between 0º and -2.5º since 11am till 7pm(very unusual and weird timing too, clearly it was a proper cold air ´bubble´). Down by the beach of Barcelona there were around 2-5cm but temps barely dipped below zero and you could tell the difference. However, the whole metropolitan area collapsed around 4pm, people stuck in trains for hours in the middle of nowhere...The intensity felt for a time as if it were a summer storm (very common, several each season with a peak in sept-oct), the likes of which I have yet to see in Britain. Only that it was terrifying, joyful snow. To cut it short, as soon as it stopped snowing and the temperature slowly rose above 0 in the metro area, most of the snow melted overnight and definitely by morning. I believe the max temp next day was a "cold" 7º. 

 

And then after that the glorious winter of 2013 happened. December was ok, had like 3-4 days of snow and several air frosts, January was increasingly good with a few good snowfalls that unfortunately in the 'hole' where Edinburgh is would never stay for longer than a few hours at best, however as soon as you got to the outer hills there were 25cm easy and it did stay in Arthur's Seat, though I only measured 13cm up there. February was a bit of a bore, though we did get some sleet and snow, too...and then another blessed March, this one even more lenghtly so. Best bit is, it started off rather mild, and there was a touch of spring in the air, some leaves seemed to blossom, as did flowers on the Meadows. Up in the hills most of the snow melted but there were still some visible patches. Suddenly I (and possibly you) started to see those charts, those astonishing charts. I'd never believed I would experience -15º at 850hpa in the Far West -of Eurasia ha ha. Poor trees and daffofils did have their spring hopes postponed for a good three weeks, snow lain on the ground of town for a couple of days, longer the further up (Brunstfield, Marchmont, Oxgangs) and on top of Arthur's Seat till 4th April, which is nothing but a (beautiful) coastal marginal hill of 250m. Snow stayed probably a week or two longer in the hills, shamefully I never went back after the melt, they were not as alluring and they'd become a huge puddle!

 

Apologies for the rant and thank you very much if you have made it down here. I am hopeful this winter will be a cold one, hopes being based on snow extend and a little hunch haha. I am happy today as it is the first day that the 0º 850hpa has visited the Isles properly and the chill in the air after Gonzalo confirms it! Winter most definitely is coming. 

Enjoy your evening!

 

PS Attached there might be a photo of today's cold snap at 15.30BST showing the cold air 'tongue' descending NW over the Continent via British Isles, and thus giving birth to heavy showers in the Lancashire-Midlands corridor. And they are pretty freaky too, can tell you, I am writing from Manchester by the way! It is a pleasure to meet you (all), sorry I've been reading you for a good two years but I am a bit shy and don't think I can contribute with much more knowledge as some people here are amazing and teach me a lot. But I do hope you enjoy the little anecdotes

Hey, welcome to the forum.

2012/13 was my first winter in Edinburgh and it was horribly frustrating seeing snow depths pile up just outside the city (and a fair bit in the village in Fife where I stay outside of term time) and then, when cold enough upper air temperatures did arrive, it was mid March and too late to properly deliver. If you head over to the Scotland thread on the regional discussion during the winter months you'll learn about how difficult it is to get a setup near the east coast which is both cold enough for snow and doesn't see the Highlands take the bulk of the snow. Usually these involve winds somewhere between NE and ESE and a cold pool which is easily sub -8C, more like -10C right at the coast or if the easterly doesn't have a particularly long fetch, and if the lapse rates are decent the convective snow can be exceptional - we had widely over a foot in November/December 2010. You also get breakdown snowfalls from Atlantic fronts trying to push through, Arctic sourced NWerlies or even, as we got in the incredible 2009/10 winter, a cold trough sitting directly over us with localised organised bands of showers pushing in from all directions - one day we got it from the west and the next night it came in from the NE. Even in a winter as comparatively poor as the last one there are always at least a few potential 'events' which threaten to deliver and leave us all nervously switching from looking out the window at the nearest lamp post, checking the weather station for the dew point, checking the radar, checking the traffic camera and, if that hasn't 'worked', running outside to try and 'feel' if there's anything falling from the sky

[stewfox]

Notice Ian isn't around when the past 8 months have been incredibly mild, he only cares about winter mildness it seems.  

 

I just want to hear  him say 'I don't know what to say' this year 

Edited October 21, 2014 by stewfox

[stewfox]

Dancerwithwings

Thanks for the big welcome, and yes I still lamp post watch. The wife and kids think I'm crazy leaving the outside lights on during the night when snow is predicted.

 

Yes after last year back to lamp post watching I thought 2009 and 2010 and put paid to that , appears not.

 

Another trip to Brill Hill cira  600ft 7 miles away at midnight on a Tuesday to see if the rain will turn to sleet snow is back i guess this winter

 

All very normal.

Edited October 21, 2014 by stewfox

[lassie23]

SNOW  and lots of it, to make up for last year's rotten winter, the worst winter I can remember for snow, since the 90's!

Edited October 21, 2014 by lassie23

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Last winter wasn't even worthy of being called a winter. It really was the most dire winter I think I've ever seen and most of my family (even grandparents) have ever seen too. At least 1988/89 apparently had some snow right at the end of it, and featured the extreme of being mild. Last winter seemed to be constantly stuck at 8-9c by day and 3-4c by night! 

I hope we never ever see a winter like that again!! Rant over lol

 

Hoping for some obliterating blizzards this winter coming, and a white christmas too watching the snow come down by the fire with pigs in blankets to boot !! 

[lassie23]

Last winter wasn't even worthy of being called a winter. It really was the most dire winter I think I've ever seen and most of my family (even grandparents) have ever seen too. At least 1988/89 apparently had some snow right at the end of it, and featured the extreme of being mild. Last winter seemed to be constantly stuck at 8-9c by day and 3-4c by night! 

I hope we never ever see a winter like that again!! Rant over lol

 

Hoping for some obliterating blizzards this winter coming, and a white christmas too watching the snow come down by the fire with pigs in blankets to boot !! 

The temps were constantly in double figures in London by day and frequently by night, it was like being stuck in one long mild autumn that just went straight into spring, absolutely dire!

[cyclonic happiness]

The temps were constantly in double figures in London by day and frequently by night, it was like being stuck in one long mild autumn that just went straight into spring, absolutely dire!

Well, maybe we can forgive it a little because, some of the gales were pretty exciting and the rain amounts ridicules.

And, it also lead on to one of the nicest summers we've ever had, which started in March and only finished two days ago.

 

But I agree on the snow point......God owes us ...BIG TIME!! :-D 

[cheeky_monkey]

Yes after last year back to lamp post watching I thought 2009 and 2010 and put paid to that , appears not.

 

Another trip to Brill Hill cira  600ft 7 miles away at midnight on a Tuesday to see if the rain will turn to sleet snow is back i guess this winter

 

All very normal.

All very sad...what's the matter with people???

[johnholmes]

The first real snows of the winter for much of the Alps today, could stick around at height for a few days?

web cams Jungfrau area

Wengen village

http://www.bellevue-wengen.ch/webcam-wengen.html

top of the Lauberhorn run

http://panocam.panomax.at/lauberhorn

railway restaurant below the Lauberhorn start

http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e

[Barry12]

that would of been a great thread

 

 

I think this Winter could be the coldest in 40 years.

 

-Could potentially have the lowest OPI since 1976, only 2009/10 will most likely have a lower OPI.

-Near record breaking snow and ice advancement for the time of year

-Unusually weak polar vortex for the time of year

-'The wave 1 activity is pretty unusual in the 35 years recorded in the Merra dataset. Only 6 years even hold a candle to 2014 with similar wave activity during October, even then not as strong as current projections on the Berlin site.' - Lorenzo.

 

[keithlucky]

Sea surface temperatures are falling fast ,winter season coming .http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

Edited October 22, 2014 by keithlucky

[Frosty_wsm]

Dancerwithwings

Thanks for the big welcome, and yes I still lamp post watch. The wife and kids think I'm crazy leaving the outside lights on during the night when snow is predicted.

I'm constantly lookin out the window when snow is predicted, even through the night if I'm tired I set an alarm to wake me up at regular intervals lol.