Early winter hopes and chat

[Mapantz]

So much hate for last Winter but I absolutely loved it! To witness such Atlantic ferocity for such a long period of time was remarkable.

Yes, there were storm related deaths but they are a tiny amount compared to the 180 elderly people a day dying from cold related issues in Winter.

If I could have cycles of storms and some snow this year, that would make me content.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, if you think of the last 'most snowless winter' here, in Warwickshire (1989) , it was followed by a couple of really snowy winters.

 

Who could forget the great Midlands blizzard of the 9th december 1990? Over two feet of un-forecasted snow falling overnight......4 days without power and water! The first time I ever heard silence.

 

I remember struggling to the end of the street where the countryside started and off in the fields you could see the blue flashing of the electric pylons....really amazing sight! *sighs*

[Gord]

At this point last year, I don't think any of us saw that horrendous winter coming. I reckon even members who like milder winters must have got fed up with the copious amounts of rain (those who lived in the affected places anyway). It was galling when we knew how a wet December 2012 could turn into the snowy January 2013 and we were hoping for some kind of repeat just wasn't to be.

 

To have 3 months in a row like that last winter was very unusual. The saving grace here was a terrific thunderstorm/hailstorm that rattled through on the 25th January. I had kind of hoped that storm was a signal of some kind of chance but alas.

 

Approaching this season much more soberly as a result.

 

Although, to add a positive, at least we're approaching off the back of a decent summer!

Edited October 18, 2014 by Gord

[mcweather]

 I work outdoors but I would take three months of frost and snow over three months like last winter anytime.

Edited October 18, 2014 by mcweather

[keithlucky]

 A good read and lets the cold USA forecast bypass them and hit UK !http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html

[bryan629]

Could this be our first early taste of winter... in the not too very distant future?? 

 

A low pressure dropping down the North Sea with origins just south of Slvalbard...i wonder if that counts as a polar low 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

Does anyone remember a chap called 'Tim Presutti' he was knocking a round the boards in a big way a few years ago, convinced that the little ice age was nigh?

 

I seem to remember the 'Polar Presutti Winter' was to begin in 2014?  Wonder if he's still about and whether he still thinks the same?

I don't know why, but I always believed him for some reason and it's stuck in my mind for years and years what he said?

[Continental Climate]

Does anyone remember a chap called 'Tim Presutti' he was knocking a round the boards in a big way a few years ago, convinced that the little ice age was nigh?

 

I seem to remember the 'Polar Presutti Winter' was to begin in 2014?  Wonder if he's still about and whether he still thinks the same?

I don't know why, but I always believed him for some reason and it's stuck in my mind for years and years what he said?

I remember him he was more of a TWO man than netweather if memory serves. He emigrated to australia a couple of years back i think, which always struck me as odd seeing as he was such a cold weather enthusiast. Come to think of it i think his name may have been tom presutti!!

Edited October 19, 2014 by Continental Climate

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't like this, striking similarities with what is being progged by the models.

 

 

 

Coming the year after the mildest worst zonal winter in my lifetime, also this was in a -qbo

[Don]

I remember him he was more of a TWO man than netweather if memory serves. He emigrated to australia a couple of years back i think, which always struck me as odd seeing as he was such a cold weather enthusiast. Come to think of it i think his name may have been tom presutti!!

I remember him! You're correct, his name was Tom Presutti. I first saw him on the old BBC Snow Watch forum before he moved across (with most others) to TWO. I don't think he was ever a Netweather member though. I haven't seen him in years which is a shame because I used to enjoy reading his forecasts.

Edited October 19, 2014 by Don

[Neilsouth]

Sky news report on the Polar Vortex: http://news.sky.com/story/1354434/is-polar-vortex-bringing-another-hard-winter

 

A Polar Vortex hitting the USA, but what about if it comes down in towards Europe instead

[Gael_Force]

Does anyone remember a chap called 'Tim Presutti' he was knocking a round the boards in a big way a few years ago, convinced that the little ice age was nigh?

 

I seem to remember the 'Polar Presutti Winter' was to begin in 2014?  Wonder if he's still about and whether he still thinks the same?

I don't know why, but I always believed him for some reason and it's stuck in my mind for years and years what he said?

 

He was posting on TWO last winter - still in Oz. He had 2010 - 2012 as the turn to colder weather and that was based on his thinking/reading of a grand solar minimum starting.

[summer blizzard]

A Polar Vortex hitting the USA, but what about if it comes down in towards Europe instead

 

It does, every year.

 

The media has just decided to make it a buzz word but we get a Polar Vortex every year which is usually in Canada and sometimes over Scandinavia. Occasionally we get a segment cut off somewhere be it the UK or in this case the USA.

[Mapantz]

I remember Presutti from many years ago, for all the wrong reasons unfortunately.

An intelligent guy but came across Madden-esque at times.

[Gael_Force]

I remember Presutti from many years ago, for all the wrong reasons unfortunately.

An intelligent guy but came across Madden-esque at times.

 

I think he was well short on that level of hyperbole! When he was most active, we still had the cold winters ahead of us and people were kinda resigned to such events being no longer likely.... you know..... the birth of that phrase that is substituted here as some kind of teapot.

[Skyraker]

Tom was natures balance to Ian Browns insane mutterings about us never seeing lying snow again in the 'courdroy winter'.

The guys balanced each other out.

Edited October 20, 2014 by Skyraker

[Sean19]

Does anyone here use the Jamstec model? Is it known to be reliable at all?

 

I like the look of a couple of their models.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014.gif

Edited October 20, 2014 by Sean19

[bluearmy]

Does anyone here use the Jamstec model? Is it known to be reliable at all?

 

I like the look of a couple of their models.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014.gif

Looks good but is suspect it's out of date by now Sean?

[phil nw.]

A lot of comment around the forum about the current state of the fledgling vortex.

I don't know if we can take anything from this at this early stage wrt what it means for Winter.

Just out of interest it's worth glancing back through the archives at the  NH pattern  on this day over the past years.

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=10&hour=0&map=4&mode=1

 

it can be seen how many Octobers had a fragmented looking PV.

 

This is not to suggest anything about our coming Winter and we can remain reasonably upbeat about prospects for cold with some of the background indicators. 

Just an observation that's all.

[Mapantz]

I think he was well short on that level of hyperbole! When he was most active, we still had the cold winters ahead of us and people were kinda resigned to such events being no longer likely.... you know..... the birth of that phrase that is substituted here as some kind of teapot.

When he was active, I didn't see ANY snow (lying snow for 14 years to be exact) not that it matters of course, but Presutti did make quite an outlandish forecast back in 2001 or 2 I think?

[Nouska]

Does anyone here use the Jamstec model? Is it known to be reliable at all?

 

I like the look of a couple of their models.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014.gif

 

Hi Sean, the Jamstec is no better - no worse - than any other long range model.

 

Here is a screen shot of the forecast from September 2013 :-

 

 

It was very wrong! - though, it had a lot of company in that respect.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[Yarmy]

What was Ian Brown's 'teapot' theory I keep reading about?

[John Badrick]

What was Ian Brown's 'teapot' theory I keep reading about?

You can't say P o s t m o d e r n w i n t e r on here it comes out as large teapot hahaha

[The Post-modern Winter]

What was Ian Brown's 'teapot' theory I keep reading about?

Others will know better but I think Ian Brown stated that we'd never see a winter with anything more than transient snow events, with most people in the Uk getting little to no snow ever again. He thought of it as a epochal statement - an absolute truth which he termed T H E M-O-D-E-R-N W-I-N-T-E-R. My name is a nod towards the years after 2008 which have made him look like an absolute fool. I don't think he ever really recovered after 09-10.

You can't say P o s t m o d e r n w i n t e r on here it comes out as large teapot hahaha

As I know too well whenever somebody quotes my bloody name. .

[pandit-scholar]

Others will know better but I think Ian Brown stated that we'd never see a winter with anything more than transient snow events, with most people in the Uk getting little to no snow ever again. He thought of it as a epochal statement - an absolute truth which he termed T H E M-O-D-E-R-N W-I-N-T-E-R. My name is a nod towards the years after 2008 which have made him look like an absolute fool. I don't think he ever really recovered after 09-10.

As I know too well whenever somebody quotes my bloody name. .

Ian Brown posts on Twitter now, instead of here for some reason. He only got a very small following on there though. Looks like he doesn't think much of the viability of the OPI and labels it this year's fad. He thinks we are going to have another 1990s style mild winter this year, although the signs (the Stratosphere and OPI) are there in my opinion for a colder winter than last year.

Having said that, to be fair to Ian Brown, he did forecast last year's winter correctly, and has had a better accuracy rate than many of the notorious forecasters, even though some of winters in the last few years did not go to plan for him.

As autumn is here and winter is coming closer, this post formally marks my return to posting on this forum, commenting on the trials and tribulations of another upcoming UK winter.

Edited October 20, 2014 by pandit-scholar