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Paul

Early winter hopes and chat

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Glad to hear you are enjoying it Nick, temperature is of course only one aspect you will be forecasting for; others being rain and wind speeds, tidal surges, and no doubt frost and snow probabilities over the winter. The last two in particular  should test you. Let me know when you finish a duty feeling as if you have been through a mangle (sorry as a youngster=used to be used for wringing out out clothes)!

 

Haha yes, I have the dilemma this winter with wanting cold weather, but also wanting a relatively stress-free life at work!

 

 

lol people are far to scared to say what they think, too scared of being wrong. You will never make anything. The met office wont even comment on the winter at all as they have had it so badly wrong many times. nobody can predict it but it makes me laugh how people say that it wont be cold and act as though they know. 2009 october the 18 forecast was very similar to this weeks. Anything can happen in a short space of time.

 

Again, I don't think anyone has stuck their colours to the mast and declared it won't be cold?

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Haha yes, I have the dilemma this winter with wanting cold weather, but also wanting a relatively stress-free life at work!

 

 

 

Again, I don't think anyone has stuck their colours to the mast and declared it won't be cold?

a lot of people seem to jump on the wagon for it to be mild simply to cover them selves. I have seen it so many times on here. 

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a lot of people seem to jump on the wagon for it to be mild simply to cover them selves. I have seen it so many times on here.

And 9 times out of 10 our winters do normally turn out mild.

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And 9 times out of 10 our winters do normally turn out mild.

so that means this winter will ?

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Not necessarily

exactly. But the fact that people are saying its wrong to predict a cold winter but it seems ok for them to predict a mild 1 simply is nonsense. Wish people would say what they think on the coming winter rather than shying away from making a decision.

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On the one hand I want an overall mild to average Winter as I cannot afford the heating bills due to being out of work, but on the other I would love a decent freeze/ deep snow event of perhaps a week or 2!

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On the one hand I want an overall mild to average Winter as I cannot afford the heating bills due to being out of work, but on the other I would love a decent freeze/ deep snow event of perhaps a week or 2!

this is how i would love the winter to go Ant!! as long as there is a mixture and its not just dull i would settle for it!!

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Part of me, admittedly a tiny part would even want to experience a 47 or 63 before I go in the next 30 odd years!

Although I doubt I would appreciate such a Winter in the slightest were I 75 or 80!

Edited by TonyH
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Other than the long range models (which admittedly are almost unanimous in not showing a wintry pattern for here in spite of major differences otherwise) I don't see that much pointing towards a milder winter over a colder one.

Last winter was different - with a westerly QBO and +OPI (or in other words an strong, organised vortex already in place by the end of October) it was clearly going to be an uphill struggle to get any kind of blocking established, and any prediction of colder than average conditions were predicated on a SSW towards the back end of winter which didn't come off.

IF the OPI does finish below -1.5 then either the OPI or a number of long range models will look foolish as the latter, by most accounts, haven't really shown much appetite for a -AO.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Other than the long range models (which admittedly are almost unanimous in not showing a wintry pattern for here in spite of major differences otherwise) I don't see that much pointing towards a milder winter over a colder one.

Last winter was different - with a westerly QBO and +OPI (or in other words an strong, organised vortex already in place by the end of October) it was clearly going to be an uphill struggle to get any kind of blocking established, and any prediction of colder than average conditions were predicated on a SSW towards the back end of winter which didn't come off.

IF the OPI does finish below -1.5 then either the OPI or a number of long range models will look foolish as the latter, by most accounts, haven't really shown much appetite for a -AO.

 

totally agree with this post :)

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. ive been looking back at some of the uks and irelands most severe winters and strangely enough nearly all of the worst winters in the last 100 years had relativly dry octobers  2009 1962 1944 1927  1978 1946 and 1939 except south east england. so maybe we might get lucky this winter cant be any worse than the last not even a flake

 

3 weeks or so later and the rains have come, so im guessing that we arent in for one of those extreme winter! lol

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exactly. But the fact that people are saying its wrong to predict a cold winter but it seems ok for them to predict a mild 1 simply is nonsense. Wish people would say what they think on the coming winter rather than shying away from making a decision.

 

You cant make 'a decision' at the moment ( we cant forecast that far ahead) so you have to 'guess'. 

 

We are far more likely to have a average or mild winter with limited snow then a cold one with plenty of snow .

 

So a 'guess' based on a likely outcomes is called a 'educated guess' that it will be average or mild based on probabilities.

Edited by stewfox
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Just looking at the snowfall stats here for the last 10 years and the extreme lack of snow for 2014 is unreal even compared with the unusually snowless years of 2007 and 2011.

 

Days of snow or sleet falling/days with snow lying:

 

2005: 41/19

2006: 26/14

2007: 22/8

2008: 32/14

2009: 31/27

2010: 63/62

2011: 24/4

2012: 27/10

2013: 48/28

2014: 4/0  :shok:

 

Surely December has to deliver something or this will go down as the most snowless year ever recorded here, not even comparable with the most snowless years of the 1910s, 20s, 30s and 90s.

Edited by Richard2901
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Last year was dreadful in so many ways, not only a huge disappointment for coldies but lest we forget people actually lost their lives in the storms..

 

I think we will be very unlikely to see another one like that for a while, I am not sure how this winter will play out. The fairly untested but decent looking OPI is showing a colder one, the snow and ice thread is showing strong growth, much better than last year (although we need it to keep up through the back end of the month) and some of the more reputable news sources are starting to make interesting discussions about the coming winter. Sky news are a good one, not simply putting up a big headline of SNOWMAGGEDON COMING EVERYONE HIDE but starting a proper debate on polar vortex activity and whether (note they ask, don't tell) that this will cause another hard winter.

 

I don't see another 2010 happening, but then this is based on averages more than any 'long range forecast'. It could well be worse, same as it could be a mild horrible one but the chances show we will get a bit of snow and some lying for at least an afternoon, and after last year that would be very welcome!

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The last time I saw snow falling here was in early April 2013. So it's been a long time coming!

 

I should imagine many people and kids are eager to see that first snowfall to relieve some of the angst caused by last winter but please, can we stay patient and be nice to each other!

 

If you don't agree with what someone has written about a model or says they don't want to see it snow etc remember it's their opinion and their entitled to it.

 

We've got conflicting output from the seasonal models and what we're seeing from the teleconnections. Whatever happens it's going to be fascinating as to what transpires and hopefully a steep learning curve for both forms of forecasting.

 

let it snow let it snow let it snow..(hopefully!) :cold:

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Well if the opi's right then we've basically one of the main ingredients in the bag already in the form of a -AO

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Just looking at the snowfall stats here for the last 10 years and the extreme lack of snow for 2014 is unreal even compared with the unusually snowless years of 2007 and 2011.

 

Days of snow or sleet falling/days with snow lying:

 

2005: 41/19

2006: 26/14

2007: 22/8

2008: 32/14

2009: 31/27

2010: 63/62

2011: 24/4

2012: 27/10

2013: 48/28

2014: 4/0  :shok:

 

Surely December has to deliver something or this will go down as the most snowless year ever recorded here, not even comparable with the most snowless years of the 1910s, 20s, 30s and 90s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's a remarkable statistic considering your location,and it just shows the almost complete lack of Northerly's for last winter.

 

Even in my location which is about 700ft ASL in the NE of England,there were very few days with snow falling and 

not one day where snowcover lasted all day,which can not have happened many times before.

Edited by Cloud 10

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Last winter was a shocker in terms of snowfall, we recorded just two days with snow falling on the 31st January and 1st February, and we managed the one morning on the 1st Feb with the slightest of coverings. Up there with the likes of winter 88/89 as the most snowless on record.

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The CFS is at it again with northern blocking and a negative AO winter.

 

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Last winter was a shocker in terms of snowfall, we recorded just two days with snow falling on the 31st January and 1st February, and we managed the one morning on the 1st Feb with the slightest of coverings. Up there with the likes of winter 88/89 as the most snowless on record.

We had a fall of about 2 cm one morning in mid November but then no lying snow and only a couple of brief times of falling snow at home all winter.

There was occasional slushy deposits up the hill at 350-400m but even this didn't last beyond a few hours.

It was the least snowy - and most frost free winter I can ever remember and even an average (by local standards) winter this time around will seem like a good one after last years attempt.

Interestingly though and for all the lack of snow and frost, it wasn't a particularly mild one with me recording few double figure temperatures throughout the winter period.

It was instead just annoyingly above the sort of values where a snow less winter could have become a snow fest one.

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