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Paul

Early winter hopes and chat

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Think this winter is shaping up to be a difficult one to call.Have been an avid follower of OPI forum for last 2 weeks and from a "coldies" pov this looks encouraging. Then you have snow advancement  Westward from Siberia at high levels and the Sun being relatively quiet and continuing to become quieter from a sunspot perspective and  these indicators provide some evidence that we may be in for a colder than average winter.On top of that there being a weak to moderate El Nino and things look better still for our part of the world. But then you have certain models in their LRFs going for above average temps for DJF that puts a dampner on things. Like others have said before (and with far more knowledge than I will ever have!!) only time will tell and this time next month we will have a better handle on things. So in the meantime just enjoy all the evidence gathering and different aspects/indicators that will help give the experts a chance in trying to explain what way the UK winter of 2014-15 will go.

 

Enjoy the Ride!! :clapping:  

 

 

 

Don't worry too much about what the long range models are forecasting, they will continue to chop and change and the probability of them calling it exactly correctly is very slim, its difficult to forecast with any accuracy events a week or two in advance nevermind a period which doesn't start for another 6 weeks and ends in 4 and half months time! Still it doesn't stop us looking at them - my belief is best to look at them when in a relaxed state.

 

There are more positive signals for increasing chances of something cold going into this winter compared to last winter, but its all conjecture and speculation. No-one forecast the wettest winter on record would occur last year - not one forecast even suggested a very wet stormy winter.

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I really hope this winter turns out to be colder than average with plenty of snowfall! I'd like to see the odd Atlantic storm being a severe weather fan though, love some wild weather over winter! Storm force winds and snow anyone? :D

 

As the old saying goes, expect nothing and you'll never be disappointed... 

i'd expect nothing if i lived in plymouth or the scilly isles 

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Come on you fellow coldies, you know it will happen!...... The Question is when ?.... snow-day.gif

 

my guess is 2016. :rofl:

 

Sorry couldn't resist.

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The CFS is hardly optimistic either (although that didn't cover itself in glory last winter). I think it's far too early for some of the optimism seen in this thread, I personally can't see anything to get me excited just yet. There may be very tentative hints, yes...but don't we see the same before every winter?

 

Although I think snow cover may have some influence on weather patterns, I'm one of those of just wait and see what the models throw out and have a little bit of patience also when it comes to significant cold. 

 

I like too see some cooler shots appearing mind because the SST's are a little bit too warm for my likening at the moment after the warm summer and fairly mild autumn we are having. Sadly no real sign of this at the moment. 

 

My ideal set up for winter is more of a Northerly dominated cold shots first before any Easterlies, any Easterlies at this time of year is likely to be convective because of the warm SST's but then that dilutes any cold so any snowfall will become more marginal especially closer to the coasts you are. 

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The only predictable thing about winter is mounting hysteria in NW.

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I tend to think that the more information we have at hand the more our expectations become unrealistic, years ago all we had to go on was the farming weekly weather bulletin. Sometimes too much information can be a bad thing in the wrong hands.

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I hope Geoff Sharp doesn't mind if I quote him of what he said on his website:

 

Pre Season Update: I have not seen the northern hemisphere oceans so cold in the last 6 years and the positive PDO is still influencing the Walker Circulation by channeling warmer water to the northern New Guinea region. It seems unlikely a strong El Nino has a chance of developing. The QBO already seems to be affecting the AO and NAO with both in their negative phases, which should persist over at least the early stages of the NH winter.

Down south in Australia we have been experiencing many unusual low pressure troughs and systems that yesterday saw snow in 3 states and some pretty wild weather on the East Coast. The scene is set for a massive winter in the NH

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Well actually for just over two thirds of the season, the days get longer.

Yes it is strange to think but it's true, the bulk of winter has increasing length of daylight for each day and the bulk of summer has decreasing length of daylight for each day.

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I hope Geoff Sharp doesn't mind if I quote him of what he said on his website:

 

Pre Season Update: I have not seen the northern hemisphere oceans so cold in the last 6 years and the positive PDO is still influencing the Walker Circulation by channeling warmer water to the northern New Guinea region. It seems unlikely a strong El Nino has a chance of developing. The QBO already seems to be affecting the AO and NAO with both in their negative phases, which should persist over at least the early stages of the NH winter.

Down south in Australia we have been experiencing many unusual low pressure troughs and systems that yesterday saw snow in 3 states and some pretty wild weather on the East Coast. The scene is set for a massive winter in the NH

Who is Geoff Sharp, if you don't mind I ask?

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he runs website about landsheidt sunspot count,old menthod of counting sunspots i think

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Exactly, Geoff does run it very well with plenty of science behind it, another piece of information from Cohen:

 

As of Oct. 13, Cohen calculated, 12.2 million square kilometers of Eurasia were covered by snow, compared with 10.8 million square kilometers on the same day last year.

About 12.9 million square kilometers covered Eurasia in October 2013, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. The record was 17.2 million in 1976.

It’s important to note that snowcover ebbs and flows and isn’t a constant all the way through the month. Last year, some of it melted away before Oct. 31 arrived. Cohen said the same may happen this year.

Cohen is trying to understand what makes snow pile up in Eurasia. His hypothesis is that the melting of the Arctic ice cap has put more moisture into the atmosphere, which provides fuel for the higher snowfall. He said he hasn’t been able to discover a solid link between the two.

According to Cohen’s research, there is a link between the snowcover and how much cold spills out of the Arctic and where it ends up once it escapes.

Cold Blocker

A big piece of this depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, which is a pressure differential across the basin. When it’s in its negative phase, cold air can be bottled up across the eastern U.S., and that can also mean more snow both there and in Western Europe.

A good indication of what the negative phase of the NAO can do was the winter of 2009-2010, when 56.1 inches (142.5 centimeters) of snow fell in Washington and the “Snowmageddon†storm halted travel in the U.S. Northeast.

That was also the year when a satellite photo showed the U.K. covered with snow, Cohen said.

Cohen said we need to wait a few weeks before he’ll predict what the NAO will do.

“Our research has shown that you need all 31 days†of October, Cohen said. “A lot can go wrong.â€

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All I want is to have a snowfall to stop all the traffic so I can hear 'silence' in the town's streets.

 

I remember the great blizzard of 1990 when 2 feet of snow fell overnight, nothing could get through and there was no water or electricity for 4 days!

But most of all I remember the silence in the streets, except for the sound of children's laughter. That was amazing!

 

We've not come close to that since, maybe 2012 jan/feb, we managed to get around 12" of snow, but it came in a few separate snowfalls and meant the roads stayed clear the whole time.

2010 was useless here for snow. Whilst EVERYONE was celebrating on NW, in Warwickshire we stood by and watched 8 failed snowfalls, that dumped over a foot of snow not 10 miles from here whilst we got 0.5"  :-(

Hmm a good 2 or 3 inches down the road at Coventry and Rugby Christmas 2010.

The Dec 1990 fall (32cm deep at Walsgrave Coventry) was indeed amazing, it did however all disappear within a couple of days with no freeze.

Edited by TonyH

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Hmm a good 2 or 3 inches down the road at Coventry and Rugby Christmas 2010.

The Dec 1990 fall (32cm deep at Walsgrave Coventry) was indeed amazing, it did however all disappear within a couple of days with no freeze.

 

Dec 2010 was pretty unspectacular for snow back home for me in Cannock too. We had a few inches but nothing extreme. However, it was the depth of the cold that was most notable about that month. Not getting above -6c in the day on either the 25th or the 26th was incredible. The snow we did have lasted for weeks.

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Oct EC Seasonal update shows a weak signal for higher than avg pressure over Greenland, and lower than avg pressure over the UK.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Oct EC Seasonal still indicates temps will be slightly above average between Dec and Jan and with slightly above avg precip totals too.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

EUROSIP seasonal which combines UKMO, ECM, Meteo-France and NCEP also signals a generally unsettled winter, temps/precip slightly above avg

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Oct EC Seasonal update shows a weak signal for higher than avg pressure over Greenland, and lower than avg pressure over the UK.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Oct EC Seasonal still indicates temps will be slightly above average between Dec and Jan and with slightly above avg precip totals too.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

EUROSIP seasonal which combines UKMO, ECM, Meteo-France and NCEP also signals a generally unsettled winter, temps/precip slightly above avg

 

Just highlighted the only bit that anyone will pay attention to.  :)

 

Seriously though, not a great deal to hang your hat on from any of the LRFs if you're looking for a winter wonderland. Que sera sera.

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Mild or slightly above average temps are easier to forecast, simples

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Mild or slightly above average temps are easier to forecast, simples

 

In what sense?

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Mild or slightly above average temps are easier to forecast, simples

 

Not a very scientific input. Of course winters over the last 100 years or so have been more mild than cold. Is that what you mean perhaps?

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Not a very scientific input. Of course winters over the last 100 years or so have been more mild than cold. Is that what you mean perhaps?

 

I guess in a sense that mild temperatures cause less disruption, so there is more "room for error" so to speak. The current extended mild spell is making the beginning of my forecasting career nice and gentle, that's for sure!

 

But forecasting is challenging no matter what temperatures you're expecting.

Edited by Nick L
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I guess in a sense that mild temperatures cause less disruption, so there is more "room for error" so to speak. The current extended mild spell is making the beginning of my forecasting career nice and gentle, that's for sure!

 

But forecasting is challenging no matter what temperatures you're expecting.

 

Glad to hear you are enjoying it Nick, temperature is of course only one aspect you will be forecasting for; others being rain and wind speeds, tidal surges, and no doubt frost and snow probabilities over the winter. The last two in particular  should test you. Let me know when you finish a duty feeling as if you have been through a mangle (sorry as a youngster=used to be used for wringing out out clothes)!

Edited by johnholmes

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lol people are far to scared to say what they think, too scared of being wrong. You will never make anything. The met office wont even comment on the winter at all as they have had it so badly wrong many times. nobody can predict it but it makes me laugh how people say that it wont be cold and act as though they know. 2009 october the 18 forecast was very similar to this weeks. Anything can happen in a short space of time.

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