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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Reads and sound like a balanced thought from Brian. Still a long way to go. As he says Glosea5 not that easy to define in our part of the world compared to N. America. Our agency going for a much above average temperature in Eastern Alpine Region for Oct/Nov/ Dec with 60 % certainty which is very high. Oct already producing record high temps in our region. Winter still to far to call. Remember last year much of lowland Europe had very little snow and above average temps in winter 13/14, whereas he had the deepest snow since 1975. So variable the winter can be compared to elevation and location. I think the Scottish Mountains faired well for snow despite all the wind and mildness affecting the British Isles and indeed in favoured places lasted the summer.

    C

     

    Yes they did extremely well last winter some of the snow depths were on a par with the big resorts in Europe at times

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Tbh I think we should temper our expectations for this coming winter. However just one snow event would make it infinitely better than last year's crap.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    If things take a real turn for the worse between now and the start of the winter then there's always a Plan B, no way am going to just wait it out in the faint hope that February 'might' produce something like I did last time.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Moved over from MOD thread.

    Gibby.

     

    Personally I have seen these early embryonic symbols of Winter in Eastern Europe shown in many years past which have had no bearing on the increased coldness of Winter over the UK. As I have said before the main driving force to our weather is tha Azores High and if that's there at anytime through the Winter it matters not a jot on what's happening in Russia or elsewhere in a Eastern Europe. As a result of the Azores High being there the Jet Stream ( a semi, permanent ribbon of air moving West to East across the Northern hemisphere) will always bottle such cold air to Eastern Europe and even push it back at times.

    That's not to say of course the UK won't have a cold Winter this year but it does indicate that the Jet Flow behaviour and synoptics to the West of the UK have far more bearing on UK weather at anytime of the year than anything happening a thousand miles or so to the East. In Winter we need a Jet flow exiting the States well South of normal and its continuation on this Southerly course over the Atlantic under the absence of the Azores High and the presence of Northern blocking. This would keep the UK on the cold side of the Jet Flow and encourage pressure to rise over Northern latitudes with relatively lower pressure over the UK possible within this setup increases our chances of snow significantly.

    in my experiences of cold Easterly patterns born from Russia or Siberia they can be frustratingly dry and end up falling short on the incidence of the one thing many strive for in cold weather and that is snow. So imo they end up being not the be all and end all for UK Winter weather and it's often more local small scale synoptics that deliver the UK some of its best snow events.

    For Winter 2014-15 its still very early to be even contemplating what Winter will be like even in Eastern Europe yet alone the UK but what I can say studying all the info and charts available to me daily at the moment there remains nothing shown to me that indicates the UK is going to suffer from cold weather anytime soon. In fact it all looks to the contrary with the more concerning parameter rearing it's ugly head.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Let's get a bit of perspective here! The Glosea5 update is an improvement on last month.

     

    Gif has sep/oct H500 followed by T850.

     

    75ef56f79bc3b49c10874ab6cfd3d773.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Excellent analysis Steve, I felt it was an odd post in saying that the Azores High is the key player so to speak. As you've highlighted its positioning is down to other feedbacks and not the other way around.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Comparing the 500mb anomaly charts last year to this year so far in October.

    There are some similarities but also non similarities. Look just west of the western coast of N America at the +ve area of heights which shows in 2013 for much of the month. So far this year that has been largely absent. Just how much effect that subsequently had I am not able to say with any certainty. What it does set up though is a different wave length pattern. Maybe if we see little or no sign of this in the 500mb anomaly outputs then a somewhat different late October into November MAY result. Beyond that and I don’t pretend to be able to suggest anything. Perhaps the new favourite MIGHT help for a winter prediction?

     

    I tried to import the two files October 2013 and October 2014 but cannot get my pc to do it, no doubt it is my renowned non compatibility with anything computer related causing this, so sorry. Please take my word for the above being correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Comparing the 500mb anomaly charts last year to this year so far in October.

    There are some similarities but also non similarities. Look just west of the western coast of N America at the +ve area of heights which shows in 2013 for much of the month. So far this year that has been largely absent. Just how much effect that subsequently had I am not able to say with any certainty. What it does set up though is a different wave length pattern. Maybe if we see little or no sign of this in the 500mb anomaly outputs then a somewhat different late October into November MAY result. Beyond that and I don’t pretend to be able to suggest anything. Perhaps the new favourite MIGHT help for a winter prediction?

     

    I tried to import the two files October 2013 and October 2014 but cannot get my pc to do it, no doubt it is my renowned non compatibility with anything computer related causing this, so sorry. Please take my word for the above being correct.

     

    Yes, John - this is the subject of a recent post by Michael Ventrice. The charts in the article will help show what you are talking about. How this effects us downstream will depend on the amplification of the wave pattern.

     

    http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/introducing-a-new-atmospheric-el-nino-southern-oscillation-index-its-current-state-and-upcoming-winter-implications/

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Comparing the 500mb anomaly charts last year to this year so far in October.

    There are some similarities but also non similarities. Look just west of the western coast of N America at the +ve area of heights which shows in 2013 for much of the month. So far this year that has been largely absent. Just how much effect that subsequently had I am not able to say with any certainty. What it does set up though is a different wave length pattern. Maybe if we see little or no sign of this in the 500mb anomaly outputs then a somewhat different late October into November MAY result. Beyond that and I don’t pretend to be able to suggest anything. Perhaps the new favourite MIGHT help for a winter prediction?

     

    I tried to import the two files October 2013 and October 2014 but cannot get my pc to do it, no doubt it is my renowned non compatibility with anything computer related causing this, so sorry. Please take my word for the above being correct.

     

     

    there you go - total different patterns.

     

    post-1235-0-09270600-1413286166_thumb.pn  OCT 13

     

    post-1235-0-75348700-1413286184_thumb.gi OCT 14.

     

    Regards

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    there you go - total different patterns.

     

    attachicon.gifOCT13.png  OCT 13

     

    attachicon.gifOct14.gif OCT 14.

     

    Regards

    S

    Note the massive -ve EPO which was omnipresent last winter - it may have helped the USA to be frigid - but not us....

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yes, John - this is the subject of a recent post by Michael Ventrice. The charts in the article will help show what you are talking about. How this effects us downstream will depend on the amplification of the wave pattern.

     

    http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/introducing-a-new-atmospheric-el-nino-southern-oscillation-index-its-current-state-and-upcoming-winter-implications/

     

    thanks for that, an interesting read although it is for N America and although the wavelength predicted looks more favourable for western Europe/UK it is not all that clear to me

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, after being told last year (I couldn't see an upcoming spell of cold and blizzards. One that never appeared!) that I cannot read the charts, I think I'll just sit back and let it all happen! :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Well, after being told last year (I couldn't see an upcoming spell of cold and blizzards. One that never appeared!) that I cannot read the charts, I think I'll just sit back and let it all happen! :rofl:

    You were looking in the wrong part of the world, you should have been looking a little Westward just across that stretch of water known as the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    there you go - total different patterns.

     

    attachicon.gifOCT13.png  OCT 13

     

    attachicon.gifOct14.gif OCT 14.

     

    Regards

    S

    I am pretty pleased with the way this is going, I for one as folk know don't see a repeat of last year and I'm holding firm. 

     

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    It's looking good for this winter

     

    -Negative OPI

    -Early warming in the stratosphere

    -Good snow cover

    -my Dad's friend knows someone in the met office who said it be cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    It's looking good for this winter

     

    -Negative OPI

    -Early warming in the stratosphere

    -Good snow cover

    -my Dad's friend knows someone in the met office who said it be cold

     

    Got everything crossed for this winter and really hope your Dad's friend is right!  :friends:  :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    It's looking good for this winter

     

    -Negative OPI

    -Early warming in the stratosphere

    -Good snow cover

    -my Dad's friend knows someone in the met office who said it be cold

     

    then it goes against their current model outputs for the winter period, see link

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

     

    For what it is worth these signals have been consistent for Nov-Jan for the last 3 issues

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    then it goes against their current model outputs for the winter period, see link

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

     

    For what it is worth these signals have been consistent for Nov-Jan for the last 3 issues

    Yep John, if nothing else the Glosea has been very consistent RE a westerly dominated winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Yep John, if nothing else the Glosea has been very consistent RE a westerly dominated winter.

     

    The CFS is hardly optimistic either (although that didn't cover itself in glory last winter). I think it's far too early for some of the optimism seen in this thread, I personally can't see anything to get me excited just yet. There may be very tentative hints, yes...but don't we see the same before every winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    then it goes against their current model outputs for the winter period, see link

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

     

    For what it is worth these signals have been consistent for Nov-Jan for the last 3 issues

     

    You can always rely on John for his words of realism and 'back to earth with bump' attitude. The MET are not always right :)

    The CFS is hardly optimistic either (although that didn't cover itself in glory last winter). I think it's far too early for some of the optimism seen in this thread, I personally can't see anything to get me excited just yet. There may be very tentative hints, yes...but don't we see the same before every winter?

    So this years October setup is the same as last years????? Far from it Nick L. The CFS went for a lot of blocking around September time last year, then backed off totally into October.

    Edited by MPG
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    You can always rely on John for his words of realism and 'back to earth with bump' attitude. The MET are not always right :)

     

    True, but I'd still trust them above most others!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    True, but I'd still trust them above most others!

    I think the MET gave up on long range forecasting, a 'BBQ Summer' springs to mind! 

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