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Early winter hopes and chat


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Bloody hell, the latest Glosea update is grim. Can't post charts as on phone but the NAO is very, very positive. Deep LP anomaly around Greenland and Iceland with HP shunted further S in Atlantic. It's as flat as a witch's t*t in all honesty.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Bloody hell, the latest Glosea update is grim. Can't post charts as on phone but the NAO is very, very positive. Deep LP anomaly around Greenland and Iceland with HP shunted further S in Atlantic. It's as flat as a witch's t*t in all honesty.

    seems to me that we are heading towards a winter very similar to last year again. Shouldn't be too surprised though. As our default weather in the uk is westerly dominated weather. With cold not been the norm for our little Ireland. Perhaps we may see some short sharp blast at some point. But certainly no madden big freeze which at least will make him look like the idiot he is once again.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Well, it's going to have to try very hard to be as windy and wet as last year, so at least it should be better :-D

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    Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts

    seems to me that we are heading towards a winter very similar to last year again. Shouldn't be too surprised though. As our default weather in the uk is westerly dominated weather. With cold not been the norm for our little Ireland. Perhaps we may see some short sharp blast at some point. But certainly no madden big freeze which at least will make him look like the idiot he is once again.

    Really wish I'd not seen this :nonono:  :bad:

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Really wish I'd not seen this :nonono:  :bad:

    well we have the glosea model Cfsv2 update agaisnt cold. But who knows it may well flip again. But the glosea update is a major worry for cold. Just wondering if the upturn in solar activity is once again going to scupper us.
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Why anyone pays attention to long range models is beyond me as 9/10 they are completely wrong. I'll stick with the tried and trusted methods of looking no further than 14 days and the monthly updates for any potential changes in patterns.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    well we have the glosea model Cfsv2 update agaisnt cold. But who knows it may well flip again. But the glosea update is a major worry for cold. Just wondering if the upturn in solar activity is once again going to scupper us.

    Solar activity is again on the decline so I don't know where you got your information from?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    well we have the glosea model Cfsv2 update agaisnt cold. But who knows it may well flip again. But the glosea update is a major worry for cold. Just wondering if the upturn in solar activity is once again going to scupper us.

     

    Maybe it would if there was an upturn???

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes, Solar Activity has been extremely low during this cycle 24, As per last few years. And dropping like a stone as we speak, With only 28 Sunspot's counted today. Will not be long before we see a spotless Sun..

     

     

    We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

     

    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

     

    hmi200.gif

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    lets put this into perspective last year was completely different hemispherical wise.

    cfs glosea there all experimental models.

    i think this winter could be dryer than last with cold possibility from high pressure whether we see good strong heights over greenland is the key although through out summer there has been a few fairly robust heights over greenland and scandi.

     

    this still could feature in our winter at some point.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Yes, Solar Activity has been extremely low during this cycle 24, As per last few years. And dropping like a stone as we speak, With only 28 Sunspot's counted today. Will not be long before we see a spotless Sun..

     

    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

     

    hmi200.gif

    certainly is the last time i checked solar output it was over terrible the activity of today.

    and even on the farside of the sun its lower which is exciting.

     

    ok so if we fail to have a cooler colder winter this time if solar activity stays the same we certianly could next winter lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Bloody hell, the latest Glosea update is grim. Can't post charts as on phone but the NAO is very, very positive. Deep LP anomaly around Greenland and Iceland with HP shunted further S in Atlantic. It's as flat as a witch's t*t in all honesty.

     

    Yes its grim for coldies however the update in November 2013 showed this

     

    2cat_20131101_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    And the December updated showed this

     

    2cat_20131201_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    Both updates showed high pressure dominating and we all no what happened............

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    I'm thinking this Winter will produce from a more N/N/W flow, A more traditional cold Atlantic Winter, With the Jet tilted N/W-S/E drifting N/S over the UK..Just my thought's at this very early stage. A long way to go yet, So no bad news or good news in reality...   

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Yes its grim for coldies however the update in November 2013 showed this

     

    2cat_20131101_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    And the December updated showed this

     

    2cat_20131201_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    Both updates showed high pressure dominating and we all no what happened............

    So basically expect the opposite to what its showing

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The Met Office Boffins still working to improve the success rate of Glosea5, especially European Area, not as easy to predict seasonal pattern as N. America. Like this time last year subject to be sent up the wrong path but the standard of success is evolving more favourable results each season.

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    certainly is the last time i checked solar output it was over terrible the activity of today.

    and even on the farside of the sun its lower which is exciting.

     

    ok so if we fail to have a cooler colder winter this time if solar activity stays the same we certianly could next winter lol

     

    And whilst not really for this thread, more interesting will be winters to come over the next decade as we head towards the minimum...

     

     

    Bloody hell, the latest Glosea update is grim. Can't post charts as on phone but the NAO is very, very positive. Deep LP anomaly around Greenland and Iceland with HP shunted further S in Atlantic. It's as flat as a witch's t*t in all honesty.

     

    As shown in previous posts, whilst perhaps useful in some aspects, I certainly won't be relying on it to confirm/blast away my winter hopes just yet.

     

     

    Yes, Solar Activity has been extremely low during this cycle 24, As per last few years. And dropping like a stone as we speak, With only 28 Sunspot's counted today. Will not be long before we see a spotless Sun..

     

    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

     

    hmi200.gif

     

    Thanks PM  :) Great to see some supporting data...

     

    Really wish I'd not seen this :nonono:  :bad:

     

    I would not take posts referencing information from Glosea and CFS models as a definitive winter forecast...don't worry just yet!

     

    People keep banging on about how the CFS was terribly out with High pressure anomalies last winter, but I followed the 1 month and 9 month runs religiously over the autumn period in the run up to December and into mid-January and neither showed nothing of the sort ( I do remember though some runs showed a period of short lived easterlies just before mid-January) but largely fairly unsettled and Atlantic in nature. If you followed the CFS in January 2013 it consistently showed northern blocking towards late February into March and even into April (from around late January) which proved to be correct, so it's not always wrong.

     

    In all honesty, we often see picked-out charts showing particular scenarios posted on forums most of the time, so naturally people will compare the winter pattern the majority of those.

     

    For example this time last year I remember seeing plenty of posts showing charts of northern blocking and cold for the UK, but as you say if it was followed like you do, the overall average probably showed something different.

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Lets hope we don't have a strong SPP index this winter!!!! in case anyone wonders what this is, it stands for Self Perpetuating Pattern and was through the ceinling last winter!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Yes its grim for coldies however the update in November 2013 showed this

     

    2cat_20131101_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    And the December updated showed this

     

    2cat_20131201_mslp_months24_global_deter

     

    Both updates showed high pressure dominating and we all no what happened............

    Yes I remember last year when both the GLOSEA and CFS V2 model were showing HLB and as we know the rest is history,  that doesn't mean they are wrong this time though but the starting point is completely different this time around so given that you'd expect at least some cold spells this coming winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    f10.gif

     

    We're stil a little way from 08/09/10 values. Another 3-4 years by simple extrapolation (always dangerous!). However, this cycle overall has been much weaker than SC23  so perhaps there will be some cumulative effect? 

     

    My expectations for winter are tempered by last year's no show, so I just hope this year is an improvement. Some frost would do for a start. And for the love of God drier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I'm thinking this Winter will produce from a more N/N/W flow, A more traditional cold Atlantic Winter, With the Jet tilted N/W-S/E drifting N/S over the UK..Just my thought's at this very early stage. A long way to go yet, So no bad news or good news in reality...   

    PM, that's what I think too.  Re these models I read that some are factoring in El Nino at a moderate strength.  For a start I think we must still look at a starting point of HP anomaly around Alaska region but as Steve M showed there can be quite different outcomes down the line.

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    PM, that's what I think too.  Re these models I read that some are factoring in El Nino at a moderate strength.  

     

    BFTP

    I think they all are BFTP and obviously the net result will way off base  ( which looks the form horse at present ) if we see a weak nino event. Until the models grasp this then they are even of less use than normal. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Maybe this belongs in the NH Snow and Ice thread :unknw: , but my mother-in-law (on the left) is adamant they had a freak snow shower in Terrington St Clement on Saturday. Looks like hail to me.

     

    15338495777_c31f557cb2_z.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    Early doors, but reading through the various posts and looking at some of the longer range anomaly charts around, it would appear that the building blocks for something very interesting this winter are being laid down. 

     

    If that continues through October and into November then I can't see a repeat of last winter and it will be over to other parts of the jigsaw to follow suite and play ball as it were. 

     

    Steady as she goes. 

     

    I wonder if High Sea Surface Temperature anomaly's around the UK coastline might be a chink in the armor this winter ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Early thoughts from the weather outlook on winter

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

    Reads and sound like a balanced thought from Brian. Still a long way to go. As he says Glosea5 not that easy to define in our part of the world compared to N. America. Our agency going for a much above average temperature in Eastern Alpine Region for Oct/Nov/ Dec with 60 % certainty which is very high. Oct already producing record high temps in our region. Winter still to far to call. Remember last year much of lowland Europe had very little snow and above average temps in winter 13/14, whereas he had the deepest snow since 1975. So variable the winter can be compared to elevation and location. I think the Scottish Mountains faired well for snow despite all the wind and mildness affecting the British Isles and indeed in favoured places lasted the summer.

    C

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