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Paul

Early winter hopes and chat

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Thankyou, any thoughts on this cold area? Every action has a reaction and all. 

One has to look at whether we've had similar other than that of 1962 as touted in article.  For me there's always a whiff of concern when 62/3 is used as a comparison as it was just such an outlandish and rare winter.

 

BFTP

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I find it a little intreaging how so many of you are looking for patterns to a forthcoming severe winter yet to me all severe winters we have had were all very different so why cannot what is happening now compare to anything at all !!!

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I certainly feel it is more positive at this moment than it was last year but a lot can change in October, it's just such an unreliable month!

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Just been having a sneak peak over on weather outlook winter forecasts and notice roger j smith sticking with warmer wetter than average uk winter ahead. Interesting.

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Just been having a sneak peak over on weather outlook winter forecasts and notice roger j smith sticking with warmer wetter than average uk winter ahead. Interesting.

 

 

JUst having a sneak preview over here, Chiono, Steve M, NW team and the rest of them are doing nothing of the sort (yet anyway)

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Just been having a sneak peak over on weather outlook winter forecasts and notice roger j smith sticking with warmer wetter than average uk winter ahead. Interesting.

 

I think you said something similar about Roger predicting a mild winter a while back Terrier, when he hadn't even discussed his early thoughts. . I asked you to provide me with a link last time, but you ignored my request. Additionally, I'm not entirely sure that Roger63 of Theweatheroutlook forums is Roger J. Smith? Perhaps he is and I'm mistaken, but I'd imagine he would have also posted any preliminary winter thoughts on here if so as many do look out for them. .

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I think you said something similar about Roger predicting a mild winter a while back Terrier, when he hadn't even discussed his early thoughts. . I asked you to provide me with a link last time, but you ignored my request. Additionally, I'm not entirely sure that Roger63 of Theweatheroutlook forums is Roger J. Smith? Perhaps he is and I'm mistaken, but I'd imagine he would have also posted any preliminary winter thoughts on here if so as many do look out for them. .

 

Correct mistaken identy

 

Roger J. Smith lives in Vancouver BC Canada

 

Roger63 lives in Winchester, Hampshire

 

All Roger J. Smith has said so far is

 

As to the winter 2014-15, have not done much work on it, the research model output looks rather variable but near long-term averages overall. Will be turning my attention to that in the next few weeks.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=3033502

Edited by Summer Sun
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Correct mistaken identy

 

Roger J. Smith lives in Vancouver BC Canada

 

Roger63 lives in Winchester, Hampshire

 

Much appreciated Summersun. I had a little inkling when I saw the forecast on the TWO thread that Terrier would jump the gun and post it as RJS' thoughts. Classic Terrier. 

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I think you said something similar about Roger predicting a mild winter a while back Terrier, when he hadn't even discussed his early thoughts. . I asked you to provide me with a link last time, but you ignored my request. Additionally, I'm not entirely sure that Roger63 of Theweatheroutlook forums is Roger J. Smith? Perhaps he is and I'm mistaken, but I'd imagine he would have also posted any preliminary winter thoughts on here if so as many do look out for them. .

 

RJS' early thoughts are along the lines of a 2010/11 type winter - early cold, milder middle-late. Similar to Fred's, although he goes for a return to cold for late winter as well.

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Correct mistaken identy

 

Roger J. Smith lives in Vancouver BC Canada

 

Roger63 lives in Winchester, Hampshire

 

All Roger J. Smith has said so far is

 

As to the winter 2014-15, have not done much work on it, the research model output looks rather variable but near long-term averages overall. Will be turning my attention to that in the next few weeks.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=3033502

Go to post 167 on the OPI thread .

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Just been having a sneak peak over on weather outlook winter forecasts and notice roger j smith sticking with warmer wetter than average uk winter ahead. Interesting.

lol wrong again, Troll

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The last sub 2C CET February was 1991.

You got to fancy that a notably cold February is around the corner. December, January and March have all returned such months. December and March have returned exceptional values or contained periods of exceptionalness.

So perhaps an exceptional January or February in terms of coldness is around the corner

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The CFS anomaly charts are hinting at something very similar to last year.

1. the cfs charts are very unreliable 

2. there nothing like last year in anyway so check your facts

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Gavin Partridge has looked at the next six months on the CFS, and all I'm going to say... cold lovers may not want to watch this.

 

But as I've said before, I wouldn't put my full trust into the CFS, as it isn't the most reliable of the long range models, but this is what it's showing at the moment and we have to take it on the chin, if cold is what you're looking for.

 

Ouch. Not sure any seasonal model has a particularly great track record at this stage given how so many of the key indicators of the winter aren't in place yet but worth considering at least. With so many of the background signals different to last winter it would be odd if we did have such a similar winter but of course nothing can be ruled out yet.

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CFS is just for fun....Gavins own words :p So before all you coldies start having panic attacks this was from his own 6 months CFS forecast from last year

Jan 2014 was down for a full on Northeasterly & Snow and we all know what happen last WInter.... The very opposite :(

 

                                                                                                               

post-11006-0-74922900-1413111830_thumb.j   And December we were going to be buried   post-11006-0-73959400-1413112978_thumb.j

 

So regarding Gavin's lastest CFS video......Let's hope the complete opposite happens this year tongue.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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The law of averages says that the CFS will be right one day.. :laugh:

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The CFS looks like it has got stuck on 'repeat' button, highly unlikely we will see 6 months with exactly the same overall hemispheric pattern. It flips and flops about all the time, doing major u turns in the space of a couple of weeks. Like any long range model take with a pinch of salt..., indeed its probably best not to look at 6 monthly forecast models, stick to the reliable timeframe as always and read threads such as the strat post for longer tern trends.

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Well so far I am currently thinking we will probably see a a slightly milder than average winter with rainfall near normal.

I personally think November and December will be very similar months, there are possibilities that we could see a few cold snaps from the north, but apart from that I think our weather might be more biased towards anticyclonic weather with frost and freezing fog.

January, I am like many others not feeling anything positive here, I think it won't be the storm-fest of last year, but the word "Bartlett" could be used at times. Rainfall near normal in the south and above in the north. Mild countrywide and perhaps very mild at times.

February, I think as the jet weakens somewhat heights over the continent could be encouraged to build northwards to perhaps bring a flow from the east. But not very confident of the potency and snow potential of this. Temperatures and rainfall will be close to normal I think.

 

Whilst I don't show much confidence in the snow/cold dream this year, I would add that sometimes you don't need much to swing the balance, for example that Atlantic ridge (northerly toppler) could become much more if you develop low enough heights over southern Europe and hence can build heights over Scandinavia to bring a truly memorable wintry spell.

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CFS is just for fun....Gavins own words :p So before all you coldies start having panic attacks this was from his own 6 months CFS forecast from last year

Jan 2014 was down for a full on Northeasterly & Snow and we all know what happen last WInter.... The very opposite :(

 

attachicon.gifCapture.JPG   So regarding Gavin's lastest CFS video......Let's hope the complete opposite happens this year tongue.gif

Agreed. I can distinctly remember Northern blocking being written all over the CFS this time last year, and it obviously never materialised. Why people pay it any heed when it comes to actual long-range forecasting is a mystery to me. Proof if any more was needed that attempts at forecasting weather accurately months in advance are fairly pointless.

"OMG, CFS forecasts mild winter in October, winter's over!" :)

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Agreed. I can distinctly remember Northern blocking being written all over the CFS this time last year, and it obviously never materialised. Why people pay it any heed when it comes to actual long-range forecasting is a mystery to me. Proof if any more was needed that attempts at forecasting weather accurately months in advance are fairly pointless.

"OMG, CFS forecasts mild winter in October, winter's over!" :)

 

People keep banging on about how the CFS was terribly out with High pressure anomalies last winter, but I followed the 1 month and 9 month runs religiously over the autumn period in the run up to December and into mid-January and neither showed nothing of the sort ( I do remember though some runs showed a period of short lived easterlies just before mid-January) but largely fairly unsettled and Atlantic in nature. If you followed the CFS in January 2013 it consistently showed northern blocking towards late February into March and even into April (from around late January) which proved to be correct, so it's not always wrong.

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I've got a good feeling about this winter. It feels pretty cold right now and the dry weather is encouraging if we want a cold winter. Just need to get through the Autumn with limited amount of westerly storms and I think we will be on track. I wouldn't bother looking at any long range models because they are useless. 

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Anyone that at times thinks the CFS is either a great or poor long term forcasting model must take note..... I've found this in-which makes sense in understanding how it works;

 

>> How to use CFS forecasts<<
The CFS (Climate Forecast System) is produced by the National Weather Service of the United States of America.

It is an ensemble model, run four times each day.

Now, each member is valid for a past 10-day period. M1 is a control run using todays data, M2 contain the data from 20 to 30 days ago, M3 data from between 10 and 20 days again, and M4 in the most recent data up to 10 days ago. This enables a good comparison to be made as to how the model has changed over time.

A comparison of the various members can give an indication as to how confident one can be in the model output; should members agree, then confidence in the forecast can be higher.

A suggested method of using the forecasts is as follows:

1. Take a long view - step back from the charts and see how the weather is affecting large geographical areas, such as the whole of Europe.

2. Spot extremes - Look for any extremes of weather, heavy rain, high temperatures.

3. Visit daily - Take a look at the forecasts each day. This helps builds a picture of consistency; the more consistent the model from day to day, the more confidence you can have in it.

4. Don't take it literally - The CFS can only give guidance, not a forecast! Just because it says a particular day in 3 weeks may be warm, that doesn't mean that it will be, it should be taken that there is a chance of warmer weather during that period.

5. Look at each of the members and look for consistency between each.

One should exercise caution when using long range forecasting models such as the GFS. They should be used for guidance only, but the experience of using these is that they are better than nothing at all!

 

NO, 6. Take it with a pinch of buckets of salt :good:

 

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfshowtouse.php

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php

 

The end of November looks mouthwatering -8 uppers hitting the UK.

 

cfs-0-1074_psk0.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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