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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Reading the Express article note the quote that December is showing conflicting signs so there may be milder and stormier conditions....yet the rest of winter shows none?  hmmmmmm  Madden wobbling?

     

    Netweather said: “Northern blocking is still shown to be in place into December, and that equates to forecast temperatures that are close to or slightly below-average across the UK.â€

     

    Did you say that? 

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Just to add to what Roger is saying on OPI thread, my thoughts re the jetstream being more favourable are that a basic pattern over North America like last year is anticipated but with a more -ve AO signature.  I like the 1977 composite as a general idea that Steve MURR posted.  It opens oppotunities for both arctic and tropical maritime incursions to influence and at times take hold of the winter.

     

    BFTP   

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Reading the Express article note the quote that December is showing conflicting signs so there may be milder and stormier conditions....yet the rest of winter shows none?  hmmmmmm

     

    Netweather said: “Northern blocking is still shown to be in place into December, and that equates to forecast temperatures that are close to or slightly below-average across the UK.”

     

    Did you say that? 

     

    BFTP

     

    It's lifted from here:

     

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

     

    We also have a supportive easterly QBO this winter. 

     

    BFTP or anyone else for that matter. I was trying to improve my knowledge and looked up the QBO on Wiki, it seems to imply that an Easterly QBO is bad for North West European cold winters?

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

     

     

    Is there something amiss here?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    BFTP or anyone else for that matter. I was trying to improve my knowledge and looked up the QBO on Wiki, it seems to imply that an Easterly QBO is bad for North West European cold winters?

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

     

     

    Is there something amiss here?

    They use the term westward and eastward which is confusing MS.

    Westward is going west ie flowing from the east so negative or East QBO is how i understood it.Checked and link here-

    http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/westward

     

    so would ring true for eastwards, ie,westerly flow or positive QBO. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Its quirky explanation I think MS

     

    Westward QBO = Easterly QBO

    Eastward QBO = Westerly QBO

     

    Example of quirkiness - Easterly winds move in a westward direction [from east to west]. westerly winds move in eastward direction [from west to east.]

     

    Easterly or -ve QBO are defo better for blocking chances

     

    Hope that helps

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    Er.....so in short, no one knows and it's too early to make any reliable predictions?

     

    Well that's simply not good enough! :acute:

     

    :p

     

    Still the reality of the situation shan't stop the Express from scaremongering.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Er.....so in short, no one knows and it's too early to make any reliable predictions?

     

    Well that's simply not good enough! :acute:

     

    :p

     

    Still the reality of the situation shan't stop the Express from scaremongering.

     

     

    Nah, you'll be stranded in blizzard conditions this winter Lauren

     

    BFTP :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Here is the thought's from WSI on the rest of Autumn and Winter from the September update, the October update will be issued later this month and will cover the first 2 months of winter

     

    WSI: Widespread Above-Normal Temperatures to Continue Through Autumn

     

    Evidence Mounting for Pattern Change toward Colder Weather in Late Winter

     

    Andover, MA, 22 September 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, eastern and central mainland Europe and the UK for the October-December period, with below-normal temperatures confined to parts of Iberia and southern France.

    According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The remains of Hurricane Edouard have helped to trigger a temporary pattern change towards much cooler temperatures across much of Europe this week. However, the bulk of the evidence suggests a return to the pattern of widespread above-normal temperatures that has been common for much of the past year. Our latest forecast for October reflects this idea, with below-normal temperatures forecasted to be confined to the far north and west of Europe as high pressure remains in control over central and southern Europe. Looking ahead towards winter, the bulk of the evidence suggests that there may be significant cold risk late in the winter, as the combination of various atmospheric/oceanic drivers (including El Nino) appear to be in consensus. On the other hand, the climate models are quite strongly suggesting another mild winter, so there is still significant uncertainty for the upcoming winter.â€

    In October, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Norway
    UK – Warmer than normal south, cooler north
    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

    In November, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
    UK – Warmer than normal
    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia/southern France

    In December, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
    UK – Warmer than normal
    Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
    Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia/southern France

     

    http://wsi.com/fe17a4c7-4fc8-4bb8-b70d-fb3049307ca9/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

    Generally what we get every year though and as common as the coldest winter in 1 trillion years call by Madden.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Mansfield Notts
  • Location: Mansfield Notts

    WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

    NOOOOOOOOOoooooooo!!!! :nonono:  :bad:

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    So many of these forecasts are predicated on a continuing/strengthening Nino during the winter months - the amount of land and SST positive anomalies are huge.

     

    tkjY0ze.png

     

    The latest run of the CFS ENSO predictions might just be showing that the forecasts will need to be re-evaluated.

     

    bZePsfn.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Generally what we get every year though and as common as the coldest winter in 1 trillion years call by Madden.

     

    BFTP

     

    Easier to forecast mild/warm than it is a freezing cold winter, that's for sure

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    Dont know if this is the right thread for this, or if it makes sense at all. There is a huge area of cold ocean temperatures in the  Atlantic which seems to have disrupted the gulf stream. See link

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-23.58,42.01,671 

    I'm not the most meteorological literate person by a long stretch, but could this be a switch to a cooler Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation? It is to my understanding also that even during a warm phase Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation, it can temporarily switch to a cold one, see link.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg

    As you can see, the cooler phases coincide with the cold winter events here in the UK. You can see on the graph, a dip to a cool phase during 2010, the 60's, mid 40's and other years. 

    If this is nonsense, then mods feel free to delete. 

     
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

     

    Dont know if this is the right thread for this, or if it makes sense at all. There is a huge area of cold ocean temperatures in the  Atlantic which seems to have disrupted the gulf stream. See link

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-23.58,42.01,671 

    I'm not the most meteorological literate person by a long stretch, but could this be a switch to a cooler Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation? It is to my understanding also that even during a warm phase Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation, it can temporarily switch to a cold one, see link.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg

    As you can see, the cooler phases coincide with the cold winter events here in the UK. You can see on the graph, a dip to a cool phase during 2010, the 60's, mid 40's and other years. 

    If this is nonsense, then mods feel free to delete. 

     

     

    I think it's another decade at least before the AMO is due to switch to it's negative phase.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Must admit that isn't a great start to winter from the wsi update and seems to go along with the mets glosea model. Let's hope next update is abit better for cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Must admit that isn't a great start to winter from the wsi update and seems to go along with the mets glosea model. Let's hope next update is abit better for cold

    The WSI update was from September as was the MetO, there's an awful long way to go yet before any model latches onto any particular strong signal let alone the full three months of winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    I think it's another decade at least before the AMO is due to switch to it's negative phase.

    Thankyou, any thoughts on this cold area? Every action has a reaction and all. 

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