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Early winter hopes and chat


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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

    Metoffice are currently predicting warm weather for beginning of November, so I guess winter will be starting late.

     

    I think it could well be another mild winter, even though some so called winter forecasts I have seen are predicting colder than average for Southern UK.

     

    Another reason i think it will be mild this winter is that most of the energy companies have frozen their prices, where usually if it's a cold winter they put their prices up a lot.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Metoffice are currently predicting warm weather for beginning of November, so I guess winter will be starting late.

     

    I think it could well be another mild winter, even though some so called winter forecasts I have seen are predicting colder than average for Southern UK.

     

    Another reason i think it will be mild this winter is that most of the energy companies have frozen their prices, where usually if it's a cold winter they put their prices up a lot.

    Who tells the energy companies what to expect?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    Metoffice are currently predicting warm weather for beginning of November, so I guess winter will be starting late.

     

    I think it could well be another mild winter, even though some so called winter forecasts I have seen are predicting colder than average for Southern UK.

     

    Another reason i think it will be mild this winter is that most of the energy companies have frozen their prices, where usually if it's a cold winter they put their prices up a lot.

    Having just had a look at the Winter 11/12 equivalent of this thread I do have to admit that prospect of another above average Autumn does give me a bit of the heebie geebies, now I know that there's several other factors involved, some which happen to look rather positive at the minute but still.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Hello everyone

    Iv been following the OPI and listening to everyone's opinions on what to expect this winter at the moment the signals are pointing to a colder winter although if things don't go to plan I still can't see this winter being as mild or wet as last, it's also a good idea to keep an eye on what's happening over the Atlantic towards America to see the developments as they head towards winter, overall I'm feeling more optimistic about the coming winter than of last year.

    Thanks all and happy model watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Having just had a look at the Winter 11/12 equivalent of this thread I do have to admit that prospect of another above average Autumn does give me a bit of the heebie geebies, now I know that there's several other factors involved, some which happen to look rather positive at the minute but still.....

     

    I wouldn't worry about it - the Octobers of 1969, 1978, 1995, 2009 and 1962 were all above average while October 1992 was well below average. I'm not saying that the correlation works the other way (I haven't actually tested it) but just that autumn temperatures aren't a particularly good predictor of the following winter temperature.

    I'd say caution is a good idea at this stage, in fact at any stage, but on the other hand there's no point being unduly pessimistic about, essentially, nothing - genuinely, it's difficult to think of a better position to be in on the 9th October. There's no guarantees, but it's all shaping up rather nicely at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
    Another reason i think it will be mild this winter is that most of the energy companies have frozen their prices, where usually if it's a cold winter they put their prices up a lot.

    They know nothing. There was a big hike last year and look what happened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    No sign of early winter hopes here. The next 5 days the warm SWly wind persists with freezing level well above 3500m. The cloud breaks giving some very warm sunshine. Our seasonal forecast for OCT/NOV/DEC not good with a 60% evolution to much above average temps. Hope that proves wrong as we need snow to start a base by Mid -November at the latest. However, encouraged by the latest GFS charts, but as we all know to well they can spin the other way very quickly. Talking about false dawns, you cold lovers back in the UK all know too well about that ! But fingers crossed this year for you.

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    They know nothing. There was a big hike last year and look what happened.

     

    Just waiting now for the obligatory 'my mate works for the council and they've been told to stockpile grit by the government' post. As though there was some super-duper accurate secret long range forecast that only the authorities have access to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    Just waiting now for the obligatory 'my mate works for the council and they've been told to stockpile grit by the government' post. As though there was some super-duper accurate secret long range forecast that only the authorities have access to.

    My mate works for the council and they have been told to stock pile grit....due to new info from there super-duper secret long range forcast model called mad madden1.....

     

    right thats that out the way..... :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Winsford Salt Mine workers in Cheshire told to work around the clock ! New ring road around the town to help cope with wagon invasion from the South of England . Wait till the Daily Express gets wind of this story ! LOL

     c

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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL

    More from the mad man himself.......im suprised the Daily Mail suffer his crap really...  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html

    Erm, that was October 2011....

    (Although I'm sure we'll have fresh madness this year too)

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    More from the mad man himself.......im suprised the Daily Mail suffer his crap really...  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html

    Yep, just sad to see some of the Weather Agency continue to plug their existence with a load of gibberish [email protected] . Thankfully, the UKMO and here on Netweather do not descend into extreme weather rhetoric, just a calm and thoughtful analogy. Perhaps they should blow their own horn when some of the other agencies fall short again.

     C

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    Erm, that was October 2011....

    (Although I'm sure we'll have fresh madness this year too)

    Yes it was and how wrong was he?? winter 11/12 was nothing like he described it......when will somebody stop papers printing his rubbish??

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Yes it was and how wrong was he?? winter 11/12 was nothing like he described it......when will somebody stop papers printing his rubbish??

     

    Unfortunately weather stories sell papers despite numerous failed stories

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Just looking at the QBO data and it seems we saw standarised Q3 values all average >-1.

     

    Other years that recorded a Q3 average below -1 with all three months below are..

     

    2012

    2007

    2005

    2003

    1998

    1996

    1994

    1984

    1979

     

    Some interesting years there.

     

    Breaking it down to those who maintained a deeply negative QBO in Q4 and those who did not..

     

    Below -1 (all 3 months)..

     

    2007

    2005

    1979

     

    Above -1 or less than all 3 months..

     

    2012

    2003

    1998

    1996

    1994 (may as well be discounted since it recorded at least one positive value)

    1984

     

    Some mixed results there.

     

    Looking at the years to try and predict QBO values i've taken our base of -1.44 and looked how many months recorded values below -1 afterward.

     

    2012 - 7

    2007 - 6

    2005 - 6

    2003 - 4

    1998 - Never reached -1.44 - Should be discounted

    1996 - 4

    1994 - 4

    1984 - 4

    1979 - 3

     

    Looking at this we see interestingly that recent events have seen the -QBO persist for longer, possibly as part of some cycle. Ignoring 1998 though we see that the mean is 4.75 months which means that we should expect a Q4 average below -1 and likely a weakening of the -QBO during Q1.

     

    Looking at Q1 years which recorded any -QBO value in all 3 months but had January at least as a -1 month we get..

     

    2012 

    2010

    2006

    2001

     

    Only Q1 2010 was not a La Nina.

     

    ........

     

    Or to take a more simplistic view of things, our QBO is more developed than 09/10 but less developed than 12/13.

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Just looking at the QBO data and it seems we saw standarised Q3 values all average >-1.

     

    Other years that recorded a Q3 average below -1 with all three months below are..

     

    2012

    2007

    2005

    2003

    1998

    1996

    1994

    1984

    1979

     

    Some interesting years there.

     

    Breaking it down to those who maintained a deeply negative QBO in Q4 and those who did not..

     

    Below -1 (all 3 months)..

     

    2007

    2005

    1979

     

    Above -1 or less than all 3 months..

     

    2012

    2003

    1998

    1996

    1994 (may as well be discounted since it recorded at least one positive value)

    1984

     

    Some mixed results there.

     

    Looking at the years to try and predict QBO values i've taken our base of -1.44 and looked how many months recorded values below -1 afterward.

     

    2012 - 7

    2007 - 6

    2005 - 6

    2003 - 4

    1998 - Never reached -1.44 - Should be discounted

    1996 - 4

    1994 - 4

    1984 - 4

    1979 - 3

     

    Looking at this we see interestingly that recent events have seen the -QBO persist for longer, possibly as part of some cycle. Ignoring 1998 though we see that the mean is 4.75 months which means that we should expect a Q4 average below -1 and likely a weakening of the -QBO during Q1.

     

    Looking at Q1 years which recorded any -QBO value in all 3 months but had January at least as a -1 month we get..

     

    2012 

    2010

    2006

    2001

     

    Only Q1 2010 was not a La Nina.

     

    ........

     

    Or to take a more simplistic view of things, our QBO is more developed than 09/10 but less developed than 12/13.

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

    I think that looking at the QBO and splitting it up solely into positive and negative values will give mixed results. What I am realising is that one need to look at the QBO state in combination with ENSO and solar output, and to look at what stage that the QBO is in it's oscillation, to get the true trends.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Here we go again, the express are starting the traditional ott winter headlines

     

    Winter 2014 set to be 'coldest for century' Britain faces ARCTIC FREEZE in just weeks

     

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

     

    After last years 100 day's of snow fail they still haven't learned

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Really makes me wish for a mild winter hearing all this rubbish! Apparently according to someone at work its going to snow soon, no doubt an express reader :closedeyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    I think that looking at the QBO and splitting it up solely into positive and negative values will give mixed results. What I am realising is that one need to look at the QBO state in combination with ENSO and solar output, and to look at what stage that the QBO is in it's oscillation, to get the true trends.

    The only engaging piece in all of that was the MetO video explaining the in's and outs of LRF, the rest was like a Hollywood script.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    The only engaging piece in all of that was the MetO video explaining the in's and outs of LRF, the rest was like a Hollywood script.

    Pardon me? I don't see what you mean.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    The only engaging piece in all of that was the MetO video explaining the in's and outs of LRF, the rest was like a Hollywood script.

    Sorry I was meant to quote Summer Sun's post. :oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    Here we go again, the express are starting the traditional ott winter headlines

     

    Winter 2014 set to be 'coldest for century' Britain faces ARCTIC FREEZE in just weeks

     

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/520672/Winter-weather-2014-UK-forecast-cold-snow-November

     

    After last years 100 day's of snow fail they still haven't learned

    That's it then, they've now gone and put the kibosh on this coming Winter, roll on Winter 2015 / 16  :rofl:

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