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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    It could well be a record breaking AO negative-

     

    Im going to check today..

     

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Just watched gavs 3rd winter update. Looks grim if after cold and snow. Looks a very familiar set up to last winter again. Looks to me like another wet and stormy uk winter ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Just watched gavs 3rd winter update. Looks grim if after cold and snow. Looks a very familiar set up to last winter again. Looks to me like another wet and stormy uk winter ahead.

    It wasn't looking that bad last week, what's changed?

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    It wasn't looking that bad last week, what's changed?

    if u watch it u will see it's not a great update at all. As he says at end crucial few weeks coming up now. But to me it's not looking great at moment. Need that snow cover to start spreading west and fast. Or I feel we are in trouble with the Atlantic once again.
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    if u watch it u will see it's not a great update at all. As he says at end crucial few weeks coming up now. But to me it's not looking great at moment. Need that snow cover to start spreading west and fast. Or I feel we are in trouble with the Atlantic once again.

    I hope we are not going to have a cluster of mild atlantic driven winters! That would be horrific! :cray:

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Just watched gavs 3rd winter update. Looks grim if after cold and snow. Looks a very familiar set up to last winter again. Looks to me like another wet and stormy uk winter ahead.

     

    I had a browse of the video, to be honest I wouldn't worry at the moment. A lot of data points presented, however not one mention of the stratosphere linking in with the OPI.

    & because of the that it doesn't really have to much substance at this stage.

     

    I think the wrong focus is given to El nino, we don't want a strong SOI index, 'generally' our best winters come from Neutral phases or ones that are at the shallow end of the scale.

    Also we have learnt that the correlation from El-nino to the UK is far lower than the AO / QBO & stratospheric link.

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    I see a little discussion around the AO for October & its state, - Its untrue to say negative years mean a positive winter index ( hence the poor overall correlation of 0.5 )

     

    If you take the last 7 - 1 AO October months

     

    1979

    1981

    2002

    2006

    2009

    2012

     

    They were all pretty good Winters ( AO wise ) - The only poor one was 2006 which incidentally was the only one with a positive OPI ( ~0.(8

     - the rest were Easterly QBO Winters.

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    We have now received our seasonal update for Oct/ Nov/ Dec . Specifically for the Eastern Alpine Region. It has a high confidence of above average temperatures (60%) and a very low expectation of below average temperatures ( less than 20%).

    Further information suggests a weaker than normal pressure gradient between the Azores and The Arctic, this enhancing the present -NAO with lower than normal pressure in the Azores. This would suggest some form of Northern Blocking with warm air flow confined to Southern and Central Europe with colder masses further to the North . Possibly the UK will be on the colder side in this type of set up.

     C

    Possibly something like this set up Carinthian, from Jamstec.

     

     

    post-4523-0-55847300-1412525567_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Possibly something like this set up Carinthian, from Jamstec.

     

     

    attachicon.giftemp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014.gif

    I hope so for you Jamstec ( I assume you like colder than normal temps )

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    I see a little discussion around the AO for October & its state, - Its untrue to say negative years mean a positive winter index ( hence the poor overall correlation of 0.5 )

     

    If you take the last 7 - 1 AO October months

     

    1979

    1981

    2002

    2006

    2009

    2012

     

    They were all pretty good Winters ( AO wise ) - The only poor one was 2006 which incidentally was the only one with a positive OPI ( ~0.(8

     - the rest were Easterly QBO Winters.

    S

    I was the one who started all this last night but where in my post did I even mention the AO? Please read my post and you will clearly see that I was referring to the NAO.
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    NAO months DJF for the Winters highlighted above

     

    6 Winters - 18 Months.

     

    9 Negative

    9 Positive

     

    however if you choose the Strongly negative NAO Octobers back to 1950 ( that's north of -1.5) then your get these as Negative totals for Winter

     

    1955 0/3

    1960 0/3

    1968 3/3

    1980 0/3

    1992 0/3

    1997 2/3

    2002 1/3

    2006 1/3

    2010 3/3

     

    Then only 10 months out of 27 supports your argument

     

    Now ADD the QBO

     

    1955 0/3   W

    1960 0/3   E

    1968 3/3   E

    1980 0/3   W

    1992 0/3   W

    1997 2/3   W

    2002 1/3   W

    2006 1/3   E

    2010 3/3   E

     

    You see that the Easterly QBO somewhat negates that fact to 7/12.

     

    at the end of the day because we are going to be extreme Negative QBO this year the NAO can essentially be Negative in October, however the negative October NAO isn't so good in westerly QBO years as that's where its a poor indicator.

     

    For me, This is what im looking for this October-

     

    Continuation of Strong negative phase of QBO,

    Strong -AO

    Shallow NAO either side of pos or neg

    As negative as possible OPI

     

    This would be the strongest pattern link you can look for in terms of this winter....

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    NAO months DJF for the Winters highlighted above

     

    6 Winters - 18 Months.

     

    9 Negative

    9 Positive

     

    however if you choose the Strongly negative NAO Octobers back to 1950 ( that's north of -1.5) then your get these as Negative totals for Winter

     

    1955 0/3

    1960 0/3

    1968 3/3

    1980 0/3

    1992 0/3

    1997 2/3

    2002 1/3

    2006 1/3

    2010 3/3

     

    Then only 10 months out of 27 supports your argument

     

    Now ADD the QBO

     

    1955 0/3   W

    1960 0/3   E

    1968 3/3   E

    1980 0/3   W

    1992 0/3   W

    1997 2/3   W

    2002 1/3   W

    2006 1/3   E

    2010 3/3   E

     

    You see that the Easterly QBO somewhat negates that fact to 7/12.

     

    at the end of the day because we are going to be extreme Negative QBO this year the NAO can essentially be Negative in October, however the negative October NAO isn't so good in westerly QBO years as that's where its a poor indicator.

     

    For me, This is what im looking for this October-

     

    Continuation of Strong negative phase of QBO,

    Strong -AO

    Shallow NAO either side of pos or neg

    As negative as possible OPI

     

    This would be the strongest pattern link you can look for in terms of this winter....

     

    S

    A good in depth interesting read Steve.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Just watched gavs 3rd winter update. Looks grim if after cold and snow. Looks a very familiar set up to last winter again. Looks to me like another wet and stormy uk winter ahead.

    It looked fairly ambivalent to me, basically saying it's too early to call. The snow gain over the month of October is far more critical than the snow cover now. In fact, last September finished with massively above average snow cover extent yet we ended up with a below average Snow Advance Index and very positive OPI, which led to a very hard to shift vortex and turbo charged jet over last winter. In some respects having low snow cover extent is actually a positive - even getting to slightly above average snow cover for western Eurasia by the end of October would mean a fairly rapid snow cover gain.

    A weak central based El Nino would be helpful but not essential (better than a very strong El Nino or, even worse, very strong La Nina), but as Steve's excellent analysis shows the East based QBO is a great starting point.

    Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    NAO months DJF for the Winters highlighted above

     

    6 Winters - 18 Months.

     

    9 Negative

    9 Positive

     

    however if you choose the Strongly negative NAO Octobers back to 1950 ( that's north of -1.5) then your get these as Negative totals for Winter

     

    1955 0/3

    1960 0/3

    1968 3/3

    1980 0/3

    1992 0/3

    1997 2/3

    2002 1/3

    2006 1/3

    2010 3/3

     

    Then only 10 months out of 27 supports your argument

     

    Now ADD the QBO

     

    1955 0/3   W

    1960 0/3   E

    1968 3/3   E

    1980 0/3   W

    1992 0/3   W

    1997 2/3   W

    2002 1/3   W

    2006 1/3   E

    2010 3/3   E

     

    You see that the Easterly QBO somewhat negates that fact to 7/12.

     

    at the end of the day because we are going to be extreme Negative QBO this year the NAO can essentially be Negative in October, however the negative October NAO isn't so good in westerly QBO years as that's where its a poor indicator.

     

    For me, This is what im looking for this October-

     

    Continuation of Strong negative phase of QBO,

    Strong -AO

    Shallow NAO either side of pos or neg

    As negative as possible OPI

     

    This would be the strongest pattern link you can look for in terms of this winter....

     

    S

    Great work Steve good to see you back posting..

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Cheers

     

     

    Im surprised theres no more postings in the OPI thread, with a correlation of 0.9 that's as good as a sure thing pointing towards the DJF AO as your going to get!

     

    Also the fledgling vortex developing in the next 8 days, over in Northern Russia & into the pole is a nice place to start, hope it stays there!

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014100512/ECH1-168.GIF?05-0

     

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I also thought weak/neutral ENSO state is more conducive to a colder winter rather than moderate-high El Nino. The supper strong El Nino in 1997/98 being a case in point.

     

    The state of snow cover now over Russia has no real bearing neither- lets see where it is in a months time.

     

    The Polar vortex usually ramps into formation during October - but the reliable timeframe shows a weak diffuse PV.. which it quite alarming, unlike this time last year. 2009, 2010 and 2012 saw weakened diffuse PV formation during October, especially in 2009 and 2010 with stronger than normal heights to our north. 2008 also interesting in how a meridional flow developed during the Autumn, all said autumns were followed by relatively cold or cold winters. We are in a different position to this time last year..

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    An early wintry onslaught well before Christmas is something I like, I've ordered that in my winter forecast basket....and will be in checkout soon....

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    An early wintry onslaught well before Christmas is something I like, I've ordered that in my winter forecast basket....and will be in checkout soon....

     

    BFTP

    I'd like it too, Fred. It's a shame that there's no evidence that it'll happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Id like the warmest driest December on record please...now where did I put those December 1974 charts?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I'd like it too, Fred. It's a shame that there's no evidence that it'll happen.

     

    You'll see the evidence building up as we go through October on the OPI thread, things ticking along nicely on every front so far, apart from one, slightly worried about some solar spikes ruining everything but apart from that - all tickety boo

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    I'd like it too, Fred. It's a shame that there's no evidence that it'll happen.

    If there was evidence of that happening what would it be this far out if any at all

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