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I remain very optimistic about this winter that will not at all a repeat from last year. Anyway, we now have a very strong negative QBO near record to 30 hPa. Currently, it is around -26 as in early fall 2012 or fall 2005 and this is only the beginning. A strong negative QBO associated with El Nino Modoki are usually herald strong blockings in northern latitudes

 

ChqDaW.gif

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  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    the noises coming from the met office don't inspire me either for winter. There update for winter is very similar to last year. And I just have a feeling we may see another winter to last year. Although we may see a few sharp short burst of cold. Guess time will tell. But if there next update shows same I will start to sway towards another winter like last year.

    We do have a long way to go regarding the type of winter we get.... i`ll be honest, i don`t buy the met office outlook...im sure i read they predicted a colder than average winter last year,     September has in most years been a settled month, October is normally where we get stormier/unsettled weather. 

    The jet stream and temperature gradients taken into account , 

    The next four to six weeks will be quite telling on the type of winter comming up... such as the polar vortex formation and location, ocean temperatures Mdo or tripole, the strength on ENSO ( which met office seem to be taking no notice of) . there was also no mention of the QBO...which is now flowing in an easterly direction, this is known to reduce the flow of our PFJ too... so a bit odd. because this aids northern blocking 

     

    The met office northern hemisphere forecast for winter on gavs vid the other day was the odd one out compared to the others that he showcased, of course the output can and will change at this range, so not inclined to beleive met office thinking at this stage of affairs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The main thing is we don't see the PV setting up where it did last year. That really trashed any hopes of a proper wintry spell.  I think most Canadians and Americans will be only too happy to see that PV take a holiday given the unbelievably cold winter over there.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    October looks like becoming unsettled and cool for a couple of weeks, then high pressure could take over, with frost and fog! I think the high will be to the SE of England, so not too cold! Does this high persist into November and settle somewhere more favourable for cold..............who knows!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    Monday                                                                        Tuesday

    post-18134-0-25474200-1412110940_thumb.gpost-18134-0-44414800-1412110951_thumb.g

    Edited by bryan629
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Well this winter can't be any more devoid of wintry weather than the last one, the only way is up!...or the same?

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  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    The main thing is we don't see the PV setting up where it did last year. That really trashed any hopes of a proper wintry spell.  I think most Canadians and Americans will be only too happy to see that PV take a holiday given the unbelievably cold winter over there.

    No NIck , definately don`t want to see it setting up where it did last year.......that would be bad news again for us... as i understand it, the PV set up where it was because of Pacific storm activity last year around the Phillipines which caused the jet to buckle in that area and effect the flow over the US and across the Atlantic .

     

    It createad high pressure to the west of america, which forced the jet south over mainland USA allowing the PV to sit over northern USA/ Canada and with all that cold air being ejected into the atlantic over warm waters created cyclogenesis....which had our name written all over it. 

     

    SO a burning question ...is tropical activity in the region of the Phillipines the same as last year ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I remain very optimistic about this winter that will not at all a repeat from last year. Anyway, we now have a very strong negative QBO near record to 30 hPa. Currently, it is around -26 as in early fall 2012 or fall 2005 and this is only the beginning. A strong negative QBO associated with El Nino Modoki are usually herald strong blockings in northern latitudes

     

    ChqDaW.gif

    For me an important pointer.  I have already made early suggestion of cold early and very blocked and cold late.  This small stat suggests that is possible as we all remember March 2013 and if one looks back at archive Feb/March 2006 had late cold blocking.  I am very much in the camp that this winter will be a very different animal

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    No NIck , definately don`t want to see it setting up where it did last year.......that would be bad news again for us... as i understand it, the PV set up where it was because of Pacific storm activity last year around the Phillipines which caused the jet to buckle in that area and effect the flow over the US and across the Atlantic .

     

    It createad high pressure to the west of america, which forced the jet south over mainland USA allowing the PV to sit over northern USA/ Canada and with all that cold air being ejected into the atlantic over warm waters created cyclogenesis....which had our name written all over it. 

     

    SO a burning question ...is tropical activity in the region of the Phillipines the same as last year ?

    I think it was the unique anomalous warmth in the North Pacific during 2013, and we saw large ridging around Alaska.  SST profile is different this year.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Just working on a winter forecast this week (and next) but I have to mention that there is much speculation over here about an even colder winter in 2014-15 than last winter (in central and eastern regions, west would once again be mild). Here again, not buying into this yet myself, but it makes some sense given the set-up and the lack of warmth demonstrated in the subarctic this past summer.

     

    However, a few years have managed to produce sustained cold on both sides, so it isn't necessarily a death knell. Some examples would be 1784, 1881, 1940, 1963. Probably some others, not the majority but it can happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Hi RJS

    I've read the old farmers almanac forecast, the set up looks very similar to last year....but all seems a tad more backed west [West Coast states still above average though] which if it occurred may produce a different Jetstream position for us over here ?

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Hi RJS

    I've read the old farmers almanac forecast, the set up looks very similar to last year....but all seems a tad more backed west [West Coast states still above average though] which if it occurred may produce a different Jetstream position for us over here ?

     

    BFTP

    Farmers Almanac is rarely right in my experience and North American winter forecast accuracy seems to be no better than ours..on occasions both the almanac and others have been spectacularly wrong..last winter didn't unfold as predicted...2011-12 was forecast to be brutally cold esp across western Canada and the mid west but turned out to be one of the mildest on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Some charts here from what I was on about yesterday the dry Octobers, whether high pressure is over or close to the UK, then followed by cold in Winter!

     

    October 2009: Sees high pressure dominating the UK!

    Rrea00120091015.gif

    Rrea00120091018.gif

     

    January 2010: Everyone will remember this period, the week where the whole of the UK was covered in a white Blanket!

    Rrea00120100106.gif

    Rrea00120100110.gif

    Ive heard loads of people say that the february of 1986 was a cold snowy month, and the October of 1985 seems to have high pressure dominating the UK again

    Rrea00119851015.gif

    Rrea00119851019.gif

    Rrea00119851025.gif

     

    Rrea00119860201.gif

    Rrea00119860205.gif

    Rrea00119860214.gif

     

    I will post some more later, but heres a couple of examples :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    For me an important pointer.  I have already made early suggestion of cold early and very blocked and cold late.  This small stat suggests that is possible as we all remember March 2013 and if one looks back at archive Feb/March 2006 had late cold blocking.  I am very much in the camp that this winter will be a very different animal

     

    BFTP

     

    but a repeat of march 2013 (the coldest since 1883) just two years later would be pretty unlikely statistically speaking? so something more watered down, you think? The spring of 2013 will live long in the memory, no doubt about that. Personally i'd like to see it shunted back to February and then it can do one.

     

    Some of those storms last winter were interesting, but it did get a bit boring by February. I'm really hoping we just have more variety this winter with high pressure hanging about a bit more, at least giving us opportunities, and keeping the model watching a bit more interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    but a repeat of march 2013 (the coldest since 1883) just two years later would be pretty unlikely statistically speaking? so something more watered down, you think? The spring of 2013 will live long in the memory, no doubt about that. Personally i'd like to see it shunted back to February and then it can do one.

     

    Some of those storms last winter were interesting, but it did get a bit boring by February. I'm really hoping we just have more variety this winter with high pressure hanging about a bit more, at least giving us opportunities, and keeping the model watching a bit more interesting.

    Indeed a repeat of severity would be some ask, I'm just musing synoptic pattern thoughts at present. 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    Since 2008 we appear to be in a phase of extremes with regards to our winter weather, for example we have had the coldest December in a 100 years, the coldest March since 1883 (as mentioned above by NFG) and the wettest Winter on record (I believe) whats to say we don't have another record breaking winter in some shape or another! Perhaps it could be for the snowiest, or the driest, or the coldest, maybe another record breaking month but this time January or February. Time will tell of course, but anything has to be an improvement on last winter  :friends:  :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

    . Time will tell of course, but anything has to be an improvement on last winter  :friends:  :hi:

     

    Up here we had the worst of both worlds. A bit of snow wouldn't have gone amiss, as it wouldn't for anyone. But neither did we get any of the storms - all I could do was was watch the scenes on telly wistfully as everyone else got all the fun. A borefest  of Biblical proportions for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    Up here we had the worst of both worlds. A bit of snow wouldn't have gone amiss, as it wouldn't for anyone. But neither did we get any of the storms - all I could do was was watch the scenes on telly wistfully as everyone else got all the fun. A borefest  of Biblical proportions for sure.

     

    We didn't see too much of the storms here either, I think they were quite regional and dependant on where you were you either got clobbered or nothing at all. I totally concur with your sentiments of last winter being a borefest!  :rofl::good:  and not having all the excitement and thrills of these threads going bananas as impending snowmageddon was about to strike just about finished me off  :crazy:  :bad:

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    One thing I would really love to see is a repeat of 28th October 2008, with its early snowfall (hope you're listening October 2014), but with even more snow fans joining in on the wintry fun! It would also mean only waiting just under a month for the first flakes of snow to fall (The Scottish and Northern UK mountains should see some anyway). :good:

    It would only be a one-off very early snowfall, though, really - too much snow too early could mean it could all run dry by the time Winter sets in for good. Although, who knows, maybe even with a number of early snowfalls, that the trend could still carry on throughout Winter (especially if scenarios such as Northerly topplers and/or Northern blocking kept repeating themselves). As John Holmes mentioned in the past "no two weather patterns are the same." (something along those lines).

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    With "exciting" weather there's always a breaking point beyond which the inconvenience and disruption outweighs the benefits- but the more we enjoy those types of weather, and the less directly affected we, and those close to us, are by the downsides, the higher the breaking point tends to be.  Last winter was indeed boring here in North Yorkshire as well (I remember snow and hail showers on 11/12 February and strong winds shortly after that, but that's it).  But would the excitement of the frequent strong winds and excessive rainfall that they got down in, say, Exeter, have outweighed the flooding problems and being cut off for over a week?  It's hard to say, but my breaking point for flooding and gales is certainly a lot lower than it is for snow and convective events.

     

    I missed out on the snow on 28 October 2008 but got some on the 26th/27th October 2012, when sleet and snow showers unexpectedly came a fair way inland from the North Sea.  I had always really wanted to see "proper" snow in October (rather than sleet mixed with rain, as happened on the 20th October 2002 when I was in Lancaster) but, being greedy, would certainly be up for some more this time around.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    With "exciting" weather there's always a breaking point beyond which the inconvenience and disruption outweighs the benefits- but the more we enjoy those types of weather, and the less directly affected we, and those close to us, are by the downsides, the higher the breaking point tends to be.  Last winter was indeed boring here in North Yorkshire as well (I remember snow and hail showers on 11/12 February and strong winds shortly after that, but that's it).  But would the excitement of the frequent strong winds and excessive rainfall that they got down in, say, Exeter, have outweighed the flooding problems and being cut off for over a week?  It's hard to say, but I certainly have a much higher breaking point for snow and convective events than for flooding and gales.

     

    I missed out on the snow on 28 October 2008 but got some on the 26th/27th October 2012, when sleet and snow showers unexpectedly came a fair way inland from the North Sea.  I had always really wanted to see "proper" snow in October (rather than sleet mixed with rain, as happened on the 20th October 2002 when I was in Lancaster) but, being greedy, would certainly be up for some more this time around.

    The relentless storms of last winter got very tedious, although if it had been a nonstop barrage of snow storms, I would have quite liked it, as this is a rarity for London, we get gales and rain nearly every winter without fail!

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    Since 2008 we appear to be in a phase of extremes with regards to our winter weather, for example we have had the coldest December in a 100 years, the coldest March since 1883 (as mentioned above by NFG) and the wettest Winter on record (I believe) whats to say we don't have another record breaking winter in some shape or another! Perhaps it could be for the snowiest, or the driest, or the coldest, maybe another record breaking month but this time January or February. Time will tell of course, but anything has to be an improvement on last winter  :friends:  :hi:

     

    You could stay this run of extremes started in 2006. From http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/82678-extremes-galore/

     

    Warmest spring: 2006

    Warmest and sunniest July: 2006

    Warmest September: 2006

    Warmest autumn: 2006

    Sunniest November: 2006

    Warmest April: 2007 until broken

    Sunniest February: 2008

    Warmest and sunniest April: 2011

    Warmest spring: 2011

    Wettest April: 2012

    Wettest June: 2012

    Wettest January: 2014

     

    3rd warmest spring: 2007

    2nd warmest autumn: 2011

    2nd warmest April: 2007

    3rd warmest October: 2006

    2nd warmest November: 2011

    2nd coldest December: 2010

    3rd wettest year: 2012

    2nd sunniest winter: 2008

    2nd sunniest spring 2011

    3rd dullest summer: 2012

     

    Coldest winter since 1978-79: 2009/2010

    Coldest spring since 1962: 2013

    Coolest summer since 1988: 2011

     

    Temperature CET records going back to 1659, rainfall 1776. That's a lot of extremes in a short space of time. Many other notable extremes and records also.

     

    Now can add one of the driest and warmest Septembers ever (driest September on record here).

     

    I wonder when the next extreme is coming and what form it will take?

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    With "exciting" weather there's always a breaking point beyond which the inconvenience and disruption outweighs the benefits- but the more we enjoy those types of weather, and the less directly affected we, and those close to us, are by the downsides, the higher the breaking point tends to be. Last winter was indeed boring here in North Yorkshire as well (I remember snow and hail showers on 11/12 February and strong winds shortly after that, but that's it). But would the excitement of the frequent strong winds and excessive rainfall that they got down in, say, Exeter, have outweighed the flooding problems and being cut off for over a week? It's hard to say, but my breaking point for flooding and gales is certainly a lot lower than it is for snow and convective events.

    Always appears to be a problem with these type of outcomes. Get excited about heavy snow, for example, and their always seems to be a risk of being looked upon as being selfish, or for being bad, for liking that kind of weather. I mean I can understand why it happens, because of the disruption it causes and it is a shame when injuries and the like, happen. I think people also seem to clearly get worried when disruptive weather happens - another reason why they might get annoyed at someone for enjoying severe weather. With us having no control of the weather, then I personally still wish some people were more accepting of those that enjoy dramatic weather. There's also that case that wishing for snowy (or other kinds of dramatic) weather won't make it happen, hence why I feel its fine to desire the weather you enjoy.

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    Got the below from the UK Weather Forecast website.

    UK Weather Forecast

    Uncertainties for now regarding winter. There are early signs, which is what some of our early winter thoughts are based on, which point towards a colder and potentially drier winter, but it is too early to say with any degree of confidence. What you could say though is that given how mild and unsettled last winter was, odds on this winter being like that again are slim, so in theory a colder weather would be possible in comparison to last year.

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