Early winter hopes and chat

[Nights King]

Well this seems the place for a little anecdote...

 

Over the weekend I was chatting to a guy at a school fair. He has just moved to the country and discovered an enormous bees nest behind some outbuildings.

 

He called in the bee expert who is arranging to take them away, but also said that the bees were building a hive suitable for a very cold winter...

 

...make of that what you will! Definitely more accurate than the CFS!

 

The thing with bees is they will prepare as much as our spring and summer will allow them too? 

 

 Poor summer leaves them under prepared for winter because they have not been able to produce the honey reserves and vice versa.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The CFS has been resolute up until now RE a blocked winter. This time last year the stunningly blocked charts it was showing started to wane. We all know what type of winter followed!

 

I've been loosely following the CFS and I'd say a good 80% of runs are showing at least one blocked month this coming winter. Unlike last winter it isn't pushing the blocked synoptics back. December has been shown as blocked on a fair few occasions.

 

I noticed, reading around, that so far this autumn there's a resemblance to 2009. That figures, seeing as analogue wise we're running very closely to 2009...........

 

 

Stormy November & early December followed by.........???

Edited September 23, 2014 by CreweCold

[TonyH]

The thing with bees is they will prepare as much as our spring and summer will allow them too? 

 

 Poor summer leaves them under prepared for winter because they have not been able to produce the honey reserves and vice versa.

Totally agree nature is reactive to not predictive of weather.

[lassie23]

I went to school from 1978-91.Think my school was closed for a week or so during jan 1979 though my memory isnt too good that far back. I had over a week off school in jan 82 which was cool cos that cold spell with plenty of snow started just as we were going back to school after the xmas holidays. Had some days off during  jan 84,85 and 86 if i remember correctly. Had most of the week off during the cold spell of jan 87,remember the headmaster on the intercom on the tuesday morning (heavy snow falling at the time) telling us all to go home and the school would be closed for the remainder of the week. Then came the mild run of winters and that was that.

I had two months off school, but not due to cold, snowy winter conditions, my school was riddled with asbestos! Schools seem to close after 1cm of snow these days!

[gsteruk]

the ever accurate folks over at exacta are again predicting a real certainty for a very cold and snowy winter.  they did at least acknowledge last year they got it wrong - but said this is one of the few times then on to claim how great they are lol unfortunatly i cant read the whole story as i need to pay for the privelage. ill get right on that....or not....

[cyclonic happiness]

Totally agree nature is reactive to not predictive of weather.

We're nature and we can predict?

[lassie23]

the ever accurate folks over at exacta are again predicting a real certainty for a very cold and snowy winter.  they did at least acknowledge last year they got it wrong - but said this is one of the few times then on to claim how great they are lol unfortunatly i cant read the whole story as i need to pay for the privelage. ill get right on that....or not....

Are you referring to this? "There are many strong signals that point towards a very cold and snowy winter (major snow episodes) for the UK & Ireland throughout the upcoming winter of 2014/15. To allow everyone the opportunity to read the full reports x 3 and be fully prepared - from Friday until midnight on Sunday we will be posting a site update and allowing purchases for just £4.99 (normally £9.99" Quote from http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Edited September 23, 2014 by lassie23

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Heres hoping for a classic cold and snowy 40s-80s style winter.

[cyclonic happiness]

Last year was exceptionally shocking, we only had the one snowfall and around 3 air frosts over the whole period.

 

So rare was the event, I made a sarcastic video lol.

 

 

[lassie23]

Last year was exceptionally shocking, we only had the one snowfall and around 3 air frosts over the whole period.

 

So rare was the event, I made a sarcastic video lol.

 

 

You actually saw snow last winter! :cold:

[Dancerwithwings]

Hi cyclonic happiness, any chance that your video has a date to that.... I  simply don't remember it, i had around ten minutes if that...  

I'm not a million miles from you, it may of been that day ?

Edited September 23, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Gavin Hannah]

Looks like I missed the start of the countdown to winter lol....

 

This year I shall definetely not be getting my hopes up for mega snow and cold. I've moved to just north of London so unless we get a dec 09 or Jan 10.... I will be keeping my expectations low. On the flip side, it does make it cheaper to get to the alps from here.... muwahaha!

[cyclonic happiness]

Hi cyclonic happiness, any chance that your video has a date to that.... I  simply don't remember it, i had around ten minutes if that...

I'm not a million miles from you, it may of been that day ?

I think it was the 18th February?

[bryan629]

This is Terry Scholeys take on what the remainder of Autumn has to offer and an early insight into the winter . 

 

As requested no copying so heres the link  http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[lassie23]

This is Terry Scholeys take on what the remainder of Autumn has to offer and an early insight into the winter . 

 

As requested no copying so heres the link  http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

All basis covered with that forecast, bit of this bit of that, what could possibly go wrong!

[gsteruk]

Are you referring to this? "There are many strong signals that point towards a very cold and snowy winter (major snow episodes) for the UK & Ireland throughout the upcoming winter of 2014/15. To allow everyone the opportunity to read the full reports x 3 and be fully prepared - from Friday until midnight on Sunday we will be posting a site update and allowing purchases for just £4.99 (normally £9.99" Quote from http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

exactly that yeah lol bargain eh!?

[lassie23]

exactly that yeah lol bargain eh!?

Surely it is the exact same wrong forecast as last year and the year before that lol!

[gsteruk]

Surely it is the exact same wrong forecast as last year and the year before that lol!

 

yeah but if u read the facebook page they are proud of all their super accurate predictions - it really is a love fest on that page. mostly them loving themselves right enough as they delete comments that arent complimentary

[Nights King]

exactly that yeah lol bargain eh!?

 

I nominate you  to go buy it so we can all have a good giggle.

[gsteruk]

I nominate you  to go buy it so we can all have a good giggle.

 

i know nothing at all about making forecasts, so i think i could cobble a good approximation on my own lol

[Dancerwithwings]

All basis covered with that forecast, bit of this bit of that, what could possibly go wrong!

Indeed....gav's early insight into the winter, perhaps this/perhaps that !!!

[bryan629]

Are you referring to this? "There are many strong signals that point towards a very cold and snowy winter (major snow episodes) for the UK & Ireland throughout the upcoming winter of 2014/15. To allow everyone the opportunity to read the full reports x 3 and be fully prepared - from Friday until midnight on Sunday we will be posting a site update and allowing purchases for just £4.99 (normally £9.99" Quote from http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

 

I would love to know what they mean by "the strong signals are".... we know so far about an easterly QBO and a modiki type ( EL NINO... to be confirmed but likely.) that may assist with a colder than average winter if we are lucky....and work in our favour, 

Just about the only other signal there is at this time of year is the anomoly charts like the CFS, BCC and JMA...which do and will flip fop from a cold  set up to a mild set up and back and forth. these type of signals are definately not "strong signals"..trends yes , but as gospel no. 

Even if Terry Scholeys thoughts come close to the mark....it sounds like a darn site better winter than last...so for now i`ll bank it. because it sounds a lot more level headed than the drivel those freeloading muppets come out with year on year at Exacta.    rant over lol. 

 

on a lighter note ive just learnt what Autumn Equinox is..........It means that in the evenings it gets late earlier and in the mornings it's early later  

[lassie23]

I would love to know what they mean by "the strong signals are".... we know so far about an easterly QBO and a modiki type ( EL NINO... to be confirmed but likely.) that may assist with a colder than average winter if we are lucky....and work in our favour, 

Just about the only other signal there is at this time of year is the anomoly charts like the CFS, BCC and JMA...which do and will flip fop from a cold  set up to a mild set up and back and forth. these type of signals are definately not "strong signals"..trends yes , but as gospel no. 

Even if Terry Scholeys thoughts come close to the mark....it sounds like a darn site better winter than last...so for now i`ll bank it. because it sounds a lot more level headed than the drivel those freeloading muppets come out with year on year at Exacta.    rant over lol. 

 

on a lighter note ive just learnt what Autumn Equinox is..........It means that in the evenings it gets late earlier and in the mornings it's early later  

LOL@ Autumn Equinox! Madden always has strong signals at this time of the year! Maybe they are in his head!

 

Indeed....gav's early insight into the winter, perhaps this/perhaps that !!!

Perhaps it will be a mild winter until it turns colder!

[Don]

You actually saw snow last winter! :cold:

 

Yes was going to say, a darn sight more snow in that video than I saw last Winter, when considering I saw nought, hardly difficult.  In fact that area must have done better than anywhere away from the Scottish mountains!!

Edited September 23, 2014 by Don

[lassie23]

Yes was going to say, a darn sight more snow in that video than I saw last Winter, which considering I saw nought, hardly difficult.  In fact that area must have done better than anywhere away from the Scottish mountains!!

I didn't see a flake either, even sleet would have been welcome last winter. You know things are dire when you would be happy to see sleet!