Early winter hopes and chat

[RCT]

Anyone have the websites for the long range models? Got a new computer and had them as bookmarks on my old computer but can't remember them.  

[Don]

Wow I never knew long range models were 100% correct, oh hang on a minute, they're not are they lol. That'll be why I'm not worried one bit about what they show that far ahead.

Did I say I was worried or that long range models were 100% accurate? I don't think so. Just said this update looks ghastly for cold lovers that's all!

[hec1]

Anyone have the websites for the long range models? Got a new computer and had them as bookmarks on my old computer but can't remember them.  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php

[throwoff]

I'm back! Been a while, I'm not a big summer weather lover!

I'm hoping for something this winter, after last winters solid snow shield over us with not a single flake seen even a flurry that doesn't settle would be nice! Fingers crossed for some serious cold though.

Long range forecasts are a over the place as to be expected and of course the Express is already talking up snowmageddon. Winter is coming!

[Dancerwithwings]

Anyone have the websites for the long range models? Got a new computer and had them as bookmarks on my old computer but can't remember them.  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=894&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

[sundog]

What I don't understand is lots is based on what is happening on the north American continent,the eastern pacific temps and the jet stream.Surely the Asian continent or Africa have every bit as much influence,it is high pressure over Russia or scandanavia that blocks the atlantic fronts that give our worst winters is it not ??

Yes but we are downstream from north America and more often then not our weather comes from the west not the east. Of course you make a good point about russia and scandanavia,but to the west of us is our good old friend the Atlantic and what happens out there often rules our weather.

[throwoff]

Yes but we are downstream from north America and more often then not our weather comes from the west not the east. Of course you make a good point about russia and scandanavia,but to the west of us is our good old friend the Atlantic and what happens out there often rules our weather.

Very true, hence so much of most winters Netweather activity being scouring the models for 'the beast from the east' winning over and giving us a lovely blanket of snow.

I underestimated the Atlantic last year and will not make the same mistake, when it decided to wake up then it is almost impossible to shift.

[throwoff]

Oh dear, I just read James Maddens thoughts for the winter.

Has he ever not predicted the end of the world come winter?

[Dorsetbred]

I underestimated the Atlantic last year and will not make the same mistake, when it decided to wake up then it is almost impossible to shift.

I don't think it was a case of under estimate, the Atlantic last year was exceptional, I didn't see anybody get anywhere near forecasting it for any sustained period, least of all the winter months in their entirety I'm sure this year will present a different challenge, as 2 in a row like that, the odds are not in it's favour...

[NorthYorksWeather]

Is January classed as F.I??     

 

 

COME TO PAPA 

[Troubleatmill]

The Gfs 06z op run is much more unsettled than the 00z, no middle ground with this run, high pressure hardly gets a look in and apart from early next week when we have pleasant conditions but with chilly nights,  only appears again as a transient feature at the very end of low res. This run is showing the north atlantic (northern arm of the jet) firing up and firing depressions our way from later next week as heights fall significantly to the NW, the first low, a vigorous looking feature, close to the southern tip of greenland swings southeast towards the uk and is then followed by another and then another, so it's trending cooler, windier and wetter, especially the further north you are from around the middle of next week onwards - proper autumn weather is on the way.

 

Wont be long now, especially as we head into October and this change from late summer to  autumnal comes in that we start looking further ahead to winter. Ive been looking at the CFS for a good couple of weeks now (mostly for fun) but one thing that has been stark in a lot of runs is the amount of blocking to our north and west

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2484&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2700&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2976&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3138&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

all for fun obvioulsy, but its there......

Edited September 18, 2014 by Nicholas B

[tcc]

Wont be long now, especially as we head into October and this change from late summer to  autumnal comes in that we start looking further ahead to winter. Ive been looking at the CFS for a good couple of weeks now (mostly for fun) but one thing that has been stark in a lot of runs is the amount of blocking to our north and west

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2484&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2700&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2976&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3138&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

all for fun obvioulsy, but its there......

 

I wouldn't take any of it into consideration at the moment, even as a pointer to the pattern! If it's consistent with a pattern in the 30 - 60 day period then it could be onto something. I'm sure last year around this time, there was plenty of blocking being shown as well if I remember.

 

However I really hope that we see SOME snow this year, I thought 88-89 would never be repeated down here but last year it was! Got to hope with a -QBO that some blocking would deliver us coldies something nice

[snow freak]

They've already started.................. http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/502349/Iceland-ash-cloud-could-trigger-freezing-cold-winter-this-year-if-it-erupts

nooooo.  i wish the DM would keep its mouth shut.

[h2005__uk__]

I'm a bit torn over winter - I'd like to see some properly cold weather with snow, but it's a real pain logistically (the  dangers of ice when driving, time wasted scraping the windscreen, having to wear loads of layers outside, etc).

 

So I'm hoping for a mostly dry and fairly cool winter with a couple of notable (but short-lived) snowy spells - preferably over Christmas. I'd rather not have all the rain  we had last winter!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A bit of nostalgia....anyone remember looking at the GFS runs in late Dec 2009/ early Jan 2010 and seeing blocking being projected right throughout the run from start to finish? Aahhhhh they were the days!

 

Damn it, I'm craving snow so badly now!

Edited September 20, 2014 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

However I really hope that we see SOME snow this year, I thought 88-89 would never be repeated down here but last year it was! Got to hope with a -QBO that some blocking would deliver us coldies something nice

 

Last time I checked, the analogues were suggesting that we were running close to '09/'10. However the more 'reliable' long range models are going for a very +NAO winter once again for whatever reason. In terms of variables we have quite a few going for us....including a supportive QBO phase. However, until I see the Glosea sniff something of a potential winter -NAO then I'll be assuming the worst. That model is never far away from the eventual truth in most instances.

[NorthYorksWeather]

A bit of nostalgia....anyone remember looking at the GFS runs in late Dec 2009/ early Jan 2010 and seeing blocking being projected right throughout the run from start to finish? Aahhhhh they were the days!

 

Damn it, I'm craving snow so badly now!

 

I remember it very well, and then to have a repeat early on the following winter! We were spoilt rotten, 2010 was a very good year for snow in this part of the country.

 

Edited September 20, 2014 by vizzy2004

[ukpaul]

nooooo.  i wish the DM would keep its mouth shut.

 

That's out of date already, there's been an ongoing eruption at Holorauhn for weeks now, Bardarbunga remains very unstable with frequent large earthquakes and the caldera sinking (suggesting magma movement and a potential collapse). in Iceland they are concerned about potentially catastrophic flooding if there is an eruption there and it would likely produce a large ash column and widespread propagation of sulphur dioxide which would have a global effect. SO2 is already reaching the stratosphere at high latitudes, though not in a massive amount.

 

Edited September 20, 2014 by ukpaul

[Don]

Last time I checked, the analogues were suggesting that we were running close to '09/'10. However the more 'reliable' long range models are going for a very +NAO winter once again for whatever reason. In terms of variables we have quite a few going for us....including a supportive QBO phase. However, until I see the Glosea sniff something of a potential winter -NAO then I'll be assuming the worst. That model is never far away from the eventual truth in most instances.

 

Was the Glosea hinting at northern blocking for Winter 2013/14 this time last year and/or was that before it was upgraded?  I know the CFSv2 was pointing towards lots of high latitude blocking.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Don

[ukpaul]

Talking of SO2, atmospheric conditions make it the closest it's been to the UK today.

 

[summer blizzard]

That's out of date already, there's been an ongoing eruption at Holorauhn for weeks now, Bardarbunga remains very unstable with frequent large earthquakes and the caldera sinking (suggesting magma movement and a potential collapse). in Iceland they are concerned about potentially catastrophic flooding if there is an eruption there and it would likely produce a large ash column and widespread propagation of sulphur dioxide which would have a global effect. SO2 is already reaching the stratosphere at high latitudes, though not in a massive amount.

 

 

For a climatic effect globally you really need VEI6 levels of SO2.  

[Daniel*]

Well if we are having such prolonged settled weather, the possibility of a wetter winter increases?

[Summer Sun]

Well if we are having such prolonged settled weather, the possibility of a wetter winter increases?

 

Everything as ever hinges on the Jet stream

[Cheshire Freeze]

Watching the model output at the moment is nothing short of tedious. What has happened to September in recent years?

Edited September 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[ukpaul]

For a climatic effect globally you really need VEI6 levels of SO2.  

 

With Bardarbunga that's a possibility but, with lots of options on the table  from dying down, to continuing for months/years as it is, to the central volcano erupting, If I was going to give it a probability at the moment I'd say continuation of Holohraun for some months (famous last words, just watch something happen overnight.....)