Early winter hopes and chat

[Costa Del Fal]

Oddly enough, despite this summer being more like 2013 than the 2007-2012 summers, the NAO and AO values were very similar to 2007-2012 and quite different to last year.

 

 

True, but this also shows that the 'direction' NAO and AO may not always give the general conditions we expect either so again not always the strongest correlations, though much better than ENSO etc.

[cheese]

Try telling that to the 1000s of people that got flooded last year, or suffered storm damage. But having read your previous posts I can see you are a WUM

Last winter was wet though - a month like February 2008 which was mild and dry would probably suffice for the general population. As much as I love snow and cold, it's a bit of a nuisance for most people trying to get from A to B, at least in this country where the infrastructure can't cope at all.

[Don]

Yes, I held off posting the DJF charts for fear of sending the thread into meltdown.

Deary me. Those charts could not get any worse for a cold lover.....

[damianslaw]

Deary me. Those charts could not get any worse for a cold lover.....

 

As I said take them with a pinch of salt - better still its probably best not to look at any of them.. they will all continue to flip flop and show something different with each update.

[lassie23]

I remember last year, some models were showing an easterly dominated January and the exact opposite happened, so I'm glad the charts are mild, because the opposite will happen again, hopefully!

[feb1991blizzard]

Normally i would be no more worried about the GLOSEA5 than I would about the CFS at this range, but after what CC said about it been rated and with its good performance last year after its stratosphere modelling upgrade, I would rather have it onside than not.

[Don]

As I said take them with a pinch of salt - better still its probably best not to look at any of them.. they will all continue to flip flop and show something different with each update.

Absolutely and at least after last Winter ones expectations should be lower than this time last year. Perhaps we should refrain from long range model watching until the end of November!

[bryan629]

 

Absolutely and at least after last Winter ones expectations should be lower than this time last year. Perhaps we should refrain from long range model watching until the end of November!

 

too right , what none of the long ranges can do is anticipate an SSW or more. Any more than us mere humans could have anticipated what was going to happen with " THAT ECM" Oh the joys

[> mark]

Models beyond 24-48hrs ....... meh!

 

My hopes are for moderate to heavy snow, sun and crisp days ........ no constant dreariness/mist and no repeat of last year thank you very much!

Edited September 16, 2014 by > mark

[gsteruk]

Early winter hopes is the thread title, don't think people need to take it so seriously at this stage.....just hopes, I don't think anyone is seriously forecasting that far ahead....

[Kent Blizzard]

Funny enough although my name...I can give or take cold, I can give or take snow but obviouly if i could choose a perfect Winter then I would have it cold during Christmas with Snow.

 

One thing I don't like about Winters is the early darkness, if it didn't get dark till say 6pm then i would love that.

[stewfox]

 

I just don't like how certain cold weather fans think they are above everyone else, when they post ridiculous charts that are 2 weeks away showing a freezing cold spell, yet if someone posted a mild chart 2 weeks away they get heckled and labelled as a troll 

 

Not sure about that

 

I'm sure cold weather fans have more of a scientific method when posting cold charts with supporting rationale.Anyone notice the remarkable similarities between 1962 and 2014 emerging  ?

 

1962 v 2014  

 

Both have 1 and 2 ,,   2014 has 2 and  4 in it which when combined = 6  and 2 * 4 + 1 in it which = 9

 

This gives us a perfect numbers match

 

1962 and 2014 both had Bruce Forsyth final comeback shows as well this suggest the attached chart for Boxing day 2014 is nailed you can clearly see the chin.

 

Supporting chart attached

Edited September 16, 2014 by stewfox

[carinthian]

Not sure about that

 

I'm sure cold weather fans have more of a scientific method when posting cold charts with supporting rationale.Anyone notice the remarkable similarities between 1962 and 2014 emerging  ?

 

1962 v 2014  

 

Both have 1 and 2 ,,   2014 has 2 and  4 in it which when combined = 6  and 2 * 4 + 1 in it which = 9

 

This gives us a perfect numbers match

 

1962 and 2014 both had Bruce Forsyth final comeback shows as well this suggest the attached chart for Boxing day 2014 is nailed you can clearly see the chin.

 

Supporting chart attached

I remember that Boxing Day well. My father was milking in the cow shed and he asked me to break the ice from the water troughs and that was inside the shed ! Very cold day with the frost persisting all day and then the snow moved down from the North. Thereafter, it remaining on the ground for at least 2 months and the drifting on our lane was 5 feet by January and that was only at a height of 100m asl. No chance of travelling between Macclesfield and Buxton unless behind a snow plough.

C

[johnholmes]

In terms of science I suppose one of the few links we have into what any met centre has is the Met O global/European model output at 2-6 months in advance. This attempts, note the word (!), to show what anomalies the model is predicting for 500mb heights, rainfall and 2m temperatures.

So far, over the past 3 months its suggestions for 2m T is NOT what any cold lover would hope for, with the current September prediction available.

link below, make of it what you want.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[terrier]

Well at the moment everything we have at our disposal at the moment seems to be pointing towards a very similar winter to last year in the uk. By that I mean mild not the servere flooding and storms we had last year. I'm just wondering if we are once again heading into a cycle of milder winters for the uk.

[carinthian]

Our seasonal forecasts for The Eastern Alps Sept 14/ Nov 14 continues to trend towards above average temps. However, it must be pointed out that the past August accuracy dropped 50% with the prediction of above average temperatures were some way out as cooler than average temperatures prevailed. Looking at this month so far , an average temperature looks more likely than the predicted above. Not sure how the UKMO seasonal forecast faired in August, but I think they may have gone for above average temps as well.  The reason we have been cooler than normal, is high pressure to the North and lower to the south which has produced lots of rainy days and cooler temps. The above average temperatures predictions will have to ascertained in the coming 2 months or our seasonal prediction for the Autumn will be wrong just like the summer one. Not sure what light it can throw on the Winter season coming, but shows that seasonal forecast from whatever source can go wrong.

 C

[Don]

Well at the moment everything we have at our disposal at the moment seems to be pointing towards a very similar winter to last year in the uk. By that I mean mild not the servere flooding and storms we had last year. I'm just wondering if we are once again heading into a cycle of milder winters for the uk.

 

Of course it's still early days, but it wouldn't surprise me if we are heading back into a cycle of milder Winters.  The pattern flipped to a warm phase in July last year and since then we have only had two below average months and it's likely that September will be another warm month.  Obviously lots of other things to consider, but with that in mind at least, there is probably a fair chance that Winter 2014/15 will be mild although not necessarily completely snowless like last year which was exceptional.  However, with the next solar minimum looking to be another deep one, it will be interesting to see if we will return to another phase of colder Winters in the next 5 years?

[hillbilly]

Well at the moment everything we have at our disposal at the moment seems to be pointing towards a very similar winter to last year in the uk. By that I mean mild not the servere flooding and storms we had last year. I'm just wondering if we are once again heading into a cycle of milder winters for the uk.

'Everything at our disposal'..??? What is that ??

There is no one who can predict further than a month in front,they struggle with 2 days sometimes so all you winter predictors are what I describe as FOOLS !!!

[Methuselah]

Well at the moment everything we have at our disposal at the moment seems to be pointing towards a very similar winter to last year in the uk. By that I mean mild not the servere flooding and storms we had last year. I'm just wondering if we are once again heading into a cycle of milder winters for the uk.

Do you mean guesswork? Personally, I cannot see anything in the way of pointers...

[phil nw.]

'Everything at our disposal'..??? What is that ??

There is no one who can predict further than a month in front,they struggle with 2 days sometimes so all you winter predictors are what I describe as FOOLS !!!

It is easy to take pot shots at any person/agency who makes a LR forecast for any season.

 

I think we need to separate the forecasts with explained methodology from those that simply put together a forecast with little explanation on how they arrived at it.

No names but we all can think of one or two who go for the headlines.

 

I along with others had a go last Winter and believe me it took hours of research before the final draft was posted.OK i came unstuck along with quite a few others but i give respect to anyone who has a go and at least explains their method. 

[Jax]

The media "hype" for extreme forecasts always ticks me off as it does many of the members here, more so when it is "backed up" with cherry picked elements from genuine forecasters to get the end result they want for a headline grabber.

 

LRF with supporting data however is welcome, be it right or wrong as long as it has been attempted right.

[Gael_Force]

Each new months update of the long range models keep the moderate Nino forecast as that is what their in house ENSO modelling indicates. The reality is different in that the technical Nino threshold has yet to be met; we will only get some idea of the possible winter pattern when either the modelling latches on to reality or reality matches what is modelled.

 

The persistence of the very large positive SST anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska really needs to lessen in order to change the long wave pattern across the US. The indicators should be good for this winter but IMO it is currently all being drowned out by an imbalance of Equatorial factors.

[Frosty_wsm]

Deary me. Those charts could not get any worse for a cold lover.....

Wow I never knew long range models were 100% correct, oh hang on a minute, they're not are they lol. That'll be why I'm not worried one bit about what they show that far ahead.

[Bobby]

Yes, I held off posting the DJF charts for fear of sending the thread into meltdown.

 

Winter's over, roll on Spring!

 

[hillbilly]

What I don't understand is lots is based on what is happening on the north American continent,the eastern pacific temps and the jet stream.Surely the Asian continent or Africa have every bit as much influence,it is high pressure over Russia or scandanavia that blocks the atlantic fronts that give our worst winters is it not ??