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Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

All this talk of ENSO patterns and what it may mean for our Winter doesn't cut it with me.. it is what happens locally that will count.

For example: 2000/2001 was a weak La Niña, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2002/2003 was a moderate El Nino it didn't snow here that Winter. 2004/2005 was a weak El Nino, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2006/2007 was a weak El Nino again, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2008/2009 was a weak La Nina, it didn't snow here that Winter either.

However, 2009/2010 had a moderate El Nino, and February 2009 was the first time since 1995 that snow was laying on the ground, albeit an inch.

The best snowfall of the last four years, was December 2010, 3 inches fell but it started raining as the warm sector crept in, and it all melted an hour after it fell. That was a strong La Nina year.

If I get lying snow at any time this Winter, i'll eat Mapantz! It'd be a bonus of course but I still believe we're back to a phase of milder Winters (If you go by the CET) :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

All this talk of ENSO patterns and what it may mean for our Winter doesn't cut it with me.. it is what happens locally that will count.

For example: 2000/2001 was a weak La Niña, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2002/2003 was a moderate El Nino it didn't snow here that Winter. 2004/2005 was a weak El Nino, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2006/2007 was a weak El Nino again, it didn't snow here that Winter. 2008/2009 was a weak La Nina, it didn't snow here that Winter either.

However, 2009/2010 had a moderate El Nino, and February 2009 was the first time since 1995 that snow was laying on the ground, albeit an inch.

The best snowfall of the last four years, was December 2010, 3 inches fell but it started raining as the warm sector crept in, and it all melted an hour after it fell. That was a strong La Nina year.

If I get lying snow at any time this Winter, i'll eat Mapantz! It'd be a bonus of course but I still believe we're back to a phase of milder Winters (If you go by the CET) :)

Mapantz, not sure if you were around in the 1970s, but we had a run of often mild and in some southern parts snow free winters during this decade, then out of the blue winter 78/79 provided a snow feast and even down in Dorset some nice snowfalls occurred and lasted on the ground for quite some time. So you may be right about the cycles of mild and cold.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Mapantz, not sure if you were around in the 1970s, but we had a run of often mild and in some southern parts snow free winters during this decade, then out of the blue winter 78/79 provided a snow feast and even down in Dorset some nice snowfalls occurred and lasted on the ground for quite some time. So you may be right about the cycles of mild and cold.

C

 

I remember 78/79 - Just moved to a new house, the car got buried by drifting snow and the neighbours came with shovels to dig it out. Brushed metal was the in-thing instead of paint that year. haha

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Mapantz, not sure if you were around in the 1970s, but we had a run of often mild and in some southern parts snow free winters during this decade, then out of the blue winter 78/79 provided a snow feast and even down in Dorset some nice snowfalls occurred and lasted on the ground for quite some time. So you may be right about the cycles of mild and cold.

C

77/78 was pretty snowy as well so 78/79 wasn't really out of the blue

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

77/78 was pretty snowy as well so 78/79 wasn't really out of the blue

Yes, 77/78 broke the run with some nice snowfall, but not very cold. Whereas, 78/79 turned out to be a severe winter in many places with lasting snow cover, particularly on the pennines.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

 

2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

That just looks very similar to last winter - can't believe that will happen again, but don't mild winters (snow free) come largely in pairs? - when was the last time we had a very mild winter followed by a cold one?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

That just looks very similar to last winter - can't believe that will happen again, but don't mild winters (snow free) come largely in pairs? - when was the last time we had a very mild winter followed by a cold one?

A good question. A stats person may have the answer. All I know that winter 45/46 was surprisingly mild throughout most of Europe , so I presume the UK was in that category. Winter 46/47,particularly Feb 47 goes down as the best snow fest ever in England and Wales, although the winter started late .

C

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Of the top ten wettest winters in england and wales there have been 4 that have been part of a  pair. 1914/15-1915/16 and 1993/94-1994/95.  Hope 2013/14 -2014/15 doesnt end up another pair!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Of the top ten wettest winters in england and wales there have been 4 that have been part of a  pair. 1914/15-1915/16 and 1993/94-1994/95.  Hope 2013/14 -2014/15 doesnt end up another pair!

Get nothing for a pair....not in this game!

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

 

2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

 

That's about as bad as it gets, higher pressure than normal over the North Pacific sending cold air flooding into North America and encouraging a monster polar vortex over the Canadian Arctic and Greenland and pressure lower than average across the Atlantic at our latitude.

 

Lets face it, if we're dealing with charts like that then nothing that actually happens can be more of a disappointment. At least its so early that its bound to change!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Good to hear your back on form TIETS.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A comparison between the GloSea model output for NDJ this winter, and the SLP anomaly for the same period last winter.

 

2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deterZ7Cm1ta.png

 

Some remarkable similarities there. It does appear that, if anything, the current GloSea is milder than last year. Note that last year there was a ridge centred to the south of Greenland, bringing mainly westerly and north westerly winds across the British Isles. This year the ridge is forecast be over the eastern Mediterranean. This would bring more in the way of south westerly winds.

 

However, I would suggest that we don't put much trust in any winter forecasts this far out. Until we know whether the atmosphere over the equatorial Pacific will kick into an El Nino state or not, winter outlooks are liable to chop and change even more than usual.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

What's with all the doom and gloom. Look on the bright side save a fortune on heating. Travel chaos avoided due to a dusting of snow and everyone panics. Think this winter will once again be mild which will at least once again show maddens true colours of not having a clue. Don't think those models are bad at all for saving us all cash on heating. Bring it on I say.

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

What's with all the doom and gloom. Look on the bright side save a fortune on heating. Travel chaos avoided due to a dusting of snow and everyone panics. Think this winter will once again be mild which will at least once again show maddens true colours of not having a clue. Don't think those models are bad at all for saving us all cash on heating. Bring it on I say.

Try telling that to the 1000s of people that got flooded last year, or suffered storm damage. But having read your previous posts I can see you are a WUM

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The Glosea model has been set on a mild, wet pattern for the past couple of updates....it doesn't bode well IMO as having read a presentation, the model rarely gets pressure patterns THAT far from the eventual reality. The only comforting factor is that the model may not be factoring ENSO correctly which could have ramifications Re the strat modelling. If this is the case then next update should be telling.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

I dont think i could stand another winter like last year to be perfectly honest.  It was dismal to say the least.  No even one snowflake and i could count the number of 'slight' frosts on one hand.  It may well be that UK now has a run of very mild winters, but i certainly hope not.  If that's the case then I am definately emigrating.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

What's with all the doom and gloom. Look on the bright side save a fortune on heating. Travel chaos avoided due to a dusting of snow and everyone panics. Think this winter will once again be mild which will at least once again show maddens true colours of not having a clue. Don't think those models are bad at all for saving us all cash on heating. Bring it on I say.

Actually lots of doom and gloom.  Even though last winter was extremely wet and mild you still had to have the heating on unless you are happy sitting in a cool damp atmosphere.  It was mild but still not warm enough to not have any heating on, so we lost out both ways.  Still had to pay more or less the same on heating, but just got lots of rain instead of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just reading around, interestingly the European models suggestive of a mild, wet winter appear to be modelling the Pacific too warm. Obviously if this is the case then the long range modelling of winter will be suspect at this range.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

I dont think i could stand another winter like last year to be perfectly honest.  It was dismal to say the least.  No even one snowflake and i could count the number of 'slight' frosts on one hand.  It may well be that UK now has a run of very mild winters, but i certainly hope not.  If that's the case then I am definately emigrating.

I dont think i could stand another winter like last year to be perfectly honest.  It was dismal to say the least.  No even one snowflake and i could count the number of 'slight' frosts on one hand.  It may well be that UK now has a run of very mild winters, but i certainly hope not.  If that's the case then I am definately emigrating.

That's what I did snow freak 10 years ago. Love my country ( Great Britain ) but hate the mild and dank winters, mostly.
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Just reading around, interestingly the European models suggestive of a mild, wet winter appear to be modelling the Pacific too warm. Obviously if this is the case then the long range modelling of winter will be suspect at this range.

Yes I agree Crewe Cold.Taking into account whether El Nino is too weak/strong or the Pacific Ocean too warm/cold, there are so many other variables to evolve at this early stage. However, my initial instincts go for a much drier UK winter based on the current phase.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I'm all up for snow but I believe we are back into a pre 2007 pattern where the summers were generally reasonable or good whilst winters were mild and generally wet with just very short lived cold snaps. 2007-12 spoilt us in winters whilst we endured rotten summers. Almost a flip has occurred I think. ENSO has very variable effects on the UK and it is very hard to find any meaningful correlations. Besides, cold and snowy is not the norm on this country though 2007-12 would have had some believe that. Sadly that isn't the case. Expect mild and wet and you'll be less disappointed but it can't be denied that in any year really, too warm for snow would generally always be the form horse. Sure, there will be a few cold snaps probably but unlikely to be troublesome, certainly not for too long.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yes I agree Crewe Cold.Taking into account whether El Nino is too weak/strong or the Pacific Ocean too warm/cold, there are so many other variables to evolve at this early stage. However, my initial instincts go for a much drier UK winter based on the current phase.

C

 

Interestingly, as per my initial thoughts, the key indicators are mostly suggestive of a -AO/NAO winter....backed up by the analogues too. A key analogue for this winter is '09/'10. I'm just wondering whether we'll see an early Atlantic onslaught before a more strat led pattern emerges during the second half of winter? I certainly can't see us kicking off in a Dec 2010 fashion at this point but who knows?? When all said and done we could end up with a rather average UK winter.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

 ENSO has very variable effects on the UK and it is very hard to find any meaningful correlations.

 

True, but its effects on the USA are clear for everyone to see. How the USA is affected by the Nino will have knock on effects as to what direction our winter heads in.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Actually lots of doom and gloom.  Even though last winter was extremely wet and mild you still had to have the heating on unless you are happy sitting in a cool damp atmosphere.  It was mild but still not warm enough to not have any heating on, so we lost out both ways.  Still had to pay more or less the same on heating, but just got lots of rain instead of snow.

 

You say that, but the gas bill I got in March was almost half of what it was the year before.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'm all up for snow but I believe we are back into a pre 2007 pattern where the summers were generally reasonable or good whilst winters were mild and generally wet with just very short lived cold snaps. 2007-12 spoilt us in winters whilst we endured rotten summers. Almost a flip has occurred I think. ENSO has very variable effects on the UK and it is very hard to find any meaningful correlations. Besides, cold and snowy is not the norm on this country though 2007-12 would have had some believe that. Sadly that isn't the case. Expect mild and wet and you'll be less disappointed but it can't be denied that in any year really, too warm for snow would generally always be the form horse. Sure, there will be a few cold snaps probably but unlikely to be troublesome, certainly not for too long.

 

Oddly enough, despite this summer being more like 2013 than the 2007-2012 summers, the NAO and AO values were very similar to 2007-2012 and quite different to last year.

 

H1yEbod.jpg

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