Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Early winter hopes and chat


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Potential 'Modoki' El Nino [central based warming in 3.4 region] looks very possible this winter which generally leads to southerly jet and blocking over Greenland

     

    Not a bad outlook and many now are predicting a weak nino at 65%.  I think weak at very most and continued positive early outlook.

     

    BFTP   

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

     

    Start of November.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

     

    Now to Oct for reasonable early intentions and sometime in Nov for release

     

    BFTP

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

     

    OAQiLasM4_.png

     

     

     

    EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

     

    Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

    Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

     

    OAQiLasM4_.png

     

     

     

    EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

     

    Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

    Nothing wrong in trying to assess what may happen though :)

     

    With regards too the QBO, when you look at previous analogues for these there are many conflicting outcomes when  a  -QBO has resulted in the opposite happening and vice versa. There are no guarantees in any teleconnections albeit a strong PV more or less means a poor winter for the UK if it's cold your looking for, though as SM highlighted a cold set up albeit  not a prolonged one is still achievable.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

    During the winter of 1962/1963 I was a scientific assistant at Heathrow Airport - I can't remember the date, most probably Feb 1963, now but during that time I do recall plotting an 'ob' for New Orleans - it was -5C, though given by the Americans in F with freezing rain - that stood out but other than that, can't recall a sausage.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

    Not sure about 1947, but I am fairly certain that similar pressure patterns in the Arctic and North Atlantic were similar in both North America and Northern Europe in the prelude to the winters of 67/68 and 62/63. Of course 62/63, the coldest since the 1700s in the UK. These two winters were also cold in North America but not exceptional compared to Northern Europe (62/63 ).

    The similarities in both winters was the prolonged negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the build up to the winters (ie ) when the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelantic Low pressure system is not great , similar to much of this present month. If the NAO remains in negative phase for the rest of the Autumn, then the chances of a cold winter increases with the likelihood of negative AO dominating.

    C

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

     

    OAQiLasM4_.png

     

     

     

    EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

     

    Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

     

    No issue with reviewing what has happened before as a 'possible' source of information, its good to see some of the metrics pointing to cold..... -

     

    To get a really great winter everything needs to be loaded in terms of the dice.....

     

    Lets hope we roll a double six!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    Not sure about 1947, but I am fairly certain that similar pressure patterns in the Arctic and North Atlantic were similar in both North America and Northern Europe in the prelude to the winters of 67/68 and 62/63. Of course 62/63, the coldest since the 1700s in the UK. These two winters were also cold in North America but not exceptional compared to Northern Europe (62/63 ).The similarities in both winters was the prolonged negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the build up to the winters (ie ) when the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelantic Low pressure system is not great , similar to much of this present month. If the NAO remains in negative phase for the rest of the Autumn, then the chances of a cold winter increases with the likelihood of negative AO dominating.C

    1978/9 was another good example of cold Winters on both sides of the Atlantic.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

    Just had a quick google and it appears that 1963 was quite bad in the states as here and in 1947 there was a huge snowstorm that had not been seen in 60 years

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    1978/9 was another good example of cold Winters on both sides of the Atlantic.

    Yep Norrance, classic Arctic Continental air mass winters. Some of those NEly produced some memorable snowstorms in both the UK and New England states/ Great Lakes.

    c

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The miserable soggy, largely snowless and frost free winter you guys had to endure last season must be hard to beat in the worst ever winter for snow feast lovers. So on the law of averages winter 14/15 must surely be an improvement. I really hope the snow lies deep crisp and even and the frosts are cruel. You cold lovers deserve it after the lashing of wind and relentless Atlantic dumping on poor blighty.

    c

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

     

    2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    With the Rollercoaster of ups and downs in the model output thread this winter, I'll be invariably sticking to recording and watching the BBC late night forecast (previously called Weatherview, but now just Weather for the Week Ahead).

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

    2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

    To be honest I Pay about as much attention to the met office long range models as I do with the CFS , they have been horrifically wrong over the years , which includes last year . Long range forecasting is a mugs game. We can all look for signals , ie QBO , SSI , El Niño/La Niña , solar activity , jet stream , and of course the very important stratosphere , and analogue years for pattern matching, then produce a forecast at the very end of autumn , but looking at computer models for over 3 months away is completely useless because no computer model can correctly forecast how all the pieces of the jigsaw falls into place , because say for example you have most signals pointing toward a mild winter , but Europe have a cold autumn with extensive Siberian snow cover ,(autumn 2012) then once that Siberian high forms it can be very difficult to shift , therefore can drive cold weather to out shores with the increased risk of southerly tracking lows . So lots of jigsaw pieces to fit together and only once we have the complete picture can we look at putting together an accurate forecast . Even then it's rarely right. As timing of events can be extremely volatile . Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Im particularly looking forward to this winter. Reason being is due to personal reasons last winter, I didn't care if we had 10ft blizzards or mild/rain. Im also looking forward to being much more active in the model discussion thread.

     

    It shouldn't be too hard to improve on last winter because I can't remember many winters when i didn't see a single snowflake.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

     

    2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

    Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.

    C

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

    Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.

    C

     Well that's a cheery thought then! let's hope it changes next month! :wallbash:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.C

    Fair enough but it wasn't going for a stormy winter , if remember righty it was going for a dry winter wasn't it ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Fair enough but it wasn't going for a stormy winter , if remember righty it was going for a dry winter wasn't it ?

    Yes correct, however, it was going for above average seasonal temperatures, whilst some of the other agencies were going for bitter cold and snow. Whether its dry or stormy, above average temperatures is no good for us snow lover ! Still a long way off yet and I am fairly confident that last winters wash out is unlikely to be repeated
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Well that's a cheery thought then! let's hope it changes next month! :wallbash:

    Yes tcc, I hope so as well. The encouraging factor at the moment is the holding of the NAO negative phase ( weaker Atlantic zonal flow ). We need to see this hold in October and then our chances of a colder season increases. Not all lost yet, but the latest Glosea Model does not make for pretty viewing.

    c

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

     

    2cat_20140901_mslp_months35_global_deter

    Looks like a cold snowy set up for Canada and the northern USA with a large positive heights around Alaska and low heights further east..would funnel cold air pretty much over the entire area east of the Rockies across to the east coast..would increase our chances of very mild winter to come.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...