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Early winter hopes and chat


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Sheffield - 228m/748ft ASL

    Chiono - Would I be right in saying that long range forecasting has actually become relatively reliable in determining the long wave pattern, but for obvious reasons the short wave pattern is much harder to nail down, especially at long range due to chaos theory?  For the UK on the edge of a continent, these short wave changes can have drastically different results, even if the overall forecast is highly accurate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I can understand some people dismissing factors such as the PDO and QBO etc but the fact remains they are intrinsically linked to how our weather turns out. Of course the real skill lies in interpreting various teleconnections in terms of how the actual weather pans out at a given location at a given time!

    Take the QBO. Of course at is way way more complex than this but last year it was in its westerly phase, which in itself helps fuel the fire of a cooling / cold stratosphere which will always vastly reduce the likelihood of high latitude blocking and the dice become increasingly loaded. The atmosphere is pre disposed to zonal as opposed to what is almost always required in any sort of decent UK wide cold spell, a meridional pattern.

    Where waters get muddied to the point of thick silt is when and importantly HOW the various 'drivers' interact with each other. MJO, ENSO state, GWO, PDO, QBO to name but a few of the bigger players.

    So whilst few could have predicted such an awful mild wet winter last time around, the signals were poor from the off and as the stratosphere cooled to record low temperatures at some levels, it was clear fairly early on sustained cold for the masses was going to be hard to come by.

    This winter does look more promising in that respect at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    Lots of updates from James Madden on Facebook now about how cold this coming winter is going to be

     

    https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

    Jeez he's starting early this year is he not!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Lots of updates from James Madden on Facebook now about how cold this coming winter is going to be

     

    https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

    I know that last year my winter forecast was wrong because I seriously underestimated the cooling and resilience of the stratospheric vortex but the main headline regarding cold ( Not another 1947) was correct. Thank goodness I didn't forecast record breaking cold! Funny enough my gut instinct thought that it would be mild and wet but this wasn't supported by the comparison years analogues which suggested near average. Really I had to go with these analogues. I would love to see GP's forecast for last winter in hindsight!

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Madden? could not forecast a wet paper bag event.

     

    Every year it is the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming.

    He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth.

    As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.

    Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    Madden? could not forecast a wet paper bag event.

     

    Every year it is the same.

    Yet still he seems to charge and people I presume people buy his guff! I have notice if u post on his fab page to query anything - the comments never appear unless they are complimentary Lol don't get me wrong, as he often predicts huge winter events - I wish he was correct! But I've never known him to be unless its by accident

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Yet still he seems to charge and people I presume people buy his guff! I have notice if u post on his fab page to query anything - the comments never appear unless they are complimentary Lol don't get me wrong, as he often predicts huge winter events - I wish he was correct! But I've never known him to be unless its by accident

    All the more infuriating is that he makes money from this, should be done for mis-selling!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming.

    He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth.

    As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.

    Hmmmm I am picking up subtle signs that maybe you are not a fan? :-)

    Do agree though, there is a time and a place to hype up potential cold and snow, for him it is every winter regardless of the genuine likelehood. I do wonder whether him and the even bigger clown that is Nathan Rao are having a bet between themselves on how much complete nonsense they can spout and get away with.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    James Madden is a complete and utter tool. Last "winter" he just could not stop himself from forecasting snow over and over again..week in week out...while in the real world the rain and wind just kept on coming.

    He is a clown..a fraud...and I feel a strange sense of sympathy for those gullible enough to believe the diarrhoea that emanates from him, as they clearly do not possess the intelligence required to see the truth.

    As for my early hopes for this winter...a normal winter will do just fine. Any repeat of the hideous spawn of satan of 2013/14 and I am emigrating.

    Didn't he ever stop to look through the window during last winter and think to himself, 'I really have ballsed this one up,' Dumb turnip! Business must be bad as he has a cut price subscription sale to his wrong forecasts at the moment! Wonder what excuse he used for getting it so wrong? A freak polar vortex  appeared from his backside maybe! :pardon:

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Didn't he ever stop to look through the window during last winter and think to himself, 'I really have ballsed this one up,' Dumb turnip! Business must be bad as he has a cut price subscription sale to his wrong forecasts at the moment! Wonder what excuse he used for getting it so wrong? A freak polar vortex  appeared from his backside maybe! :pardon:

    Most LRFs will give you a bit of everything, so as not to be totally wrong in retrospect but these are mostly from people not making a business of it. A bit of everything isn't going to get attention so predicting something more extreme is profitable, you just have to pick the right extreme (just think how, if anyone had predicted the devastating storms last year would be in demand now).

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Madden is like anti-weather, what ever he says, think the opposite and that is what you are likely to get.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Most LRFs will give you a bit of everything, so as not to be totally wrong in retrospect but these are mostly from people not making a business of it. A bit of everything isn't going to get attention so predicting something more extreme is profitable, you just have to pick the right extreme (just think how, if anyone had predicted the devastating storms last year would be in demand now).

    Madman predicts the same thing every year. He will get it right eventually!

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    Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

    Madman predicts the same thing every year. He will get it right eventually!

    His argument I believe is that by saying Scotland will be snowy - he's correct - high altitude typically always will. He keeps it vague enough to mean he will always be correct. So yes, utter tool. The fact you can't add unmoderated comments to his fb page is testimony to his toolishness

    Edited by gsteruk
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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    I hope for a very late winter and an equally early spring ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    The name 'James Madden' should be in the swear-filter.... He's just full of super duper

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    The name 'James Madden' should be in the swear-filter.... He's just full of onions

    what kind of "flooring" should he be? apart from onions?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

    what kind of "flooring" should he be? apart from onions?

    Don't know about what kind of flooring he should be, but he needs flooring with a good left right combo. What a weapon he truly is.

    Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Don't know about what kind of flooring he should be, but he needs flooring with a good left right combo. What a weapon he truly is.

    you make it sound like a Tekken move.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    The name 'James Madden' should be in the swear-filter.... He's just full of onions

    The man is one massive Bap head! There are more like him on the net unfortunately!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    So, with all recent previous comments are winter hopes to be 'madden free' ? 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

    Does anyone have a link to that Italian blog where they've developed their own October pattern indicator for predicting the winter AO? They'll no doubt be gathering the Oct data before too long and it would be good to keep an eye on that as it's proved quite reliable.

    edit: found it, http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/

    Not yet running obviously!

    Edited by beng
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    It think it is almost impossible at this stage to forecast winter 14/15. Most European forecasting agencies this time last year underestimated the prolonged snow free and in places frost free winter season. The storms and rainfall in the UK were staggering. Yet when snowfall totals were mostly nil in many European lowlands, some highland places in Scotland had a abundance of snow and here in our state of Carinthia the snowiest season since 1975, albeit at alitiude. I think the real guide to early indications of a cold winter is to look whether early snow cover can be maintained or established west of the Urals to the Baltic States. Start looking around the end of October. I cannot see any justification in the Madden predictions, but some media outlets like them !

    C

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