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Paul

Early winter hopes and chat

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The SST'S around the UK look very high and way above average at the moment so we do need some colder air around soon but the reality is, there is no real signs of this at the moment. 

 

I believe temps in the North Sea are around 12-14C at the moment and we are in November! Rather see on the charts more colder shots from the NW than any spectacular set ups that delivers any cold from the East.

They were anomalously high in November 2010 too and we saw how that turned out - massive convective snow off the North Sea. Of course that was a pretty exceptional setup, and it probably would harm us in more marginal setups, but IMO it's better to get a cold easterly early December than in March when SSTs are low and inhibits convection.
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Absolute belter, just had a massive leak from my kitchen sink so been stemming the flow and mopping up but what a webb of intrigue to come back to!!!!!

 

 

:yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

 

:yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:

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Low chance or not ECM is very much going for an easterly

 

ECM1-192.GIFECM1-216.GIF?08-0images.jpg

 

 

:cold:  :bomb:

Ned Stark: WINTER IS COMING!! :yahoo:  :cold: :cold:

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If it was a month later, I'd be getting very excited. But, with SSTs as warm as they are at this time of year, the prospect of persistent rain and sleet, coupled to a nagging ENE wind, makes me err towards depression! :fool:

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But wasnt the warm north sea the reason i got burried by snow in Dec 10? im sure it was that contrast with the cold air that made all the snow. Id have that again on 30/11 anyday :D :D

Edited by Winter Cold
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But wasn't the warm north sea the reason i got burried by snow in Dec 10? im sure it was that contrast with the cold air that made all the snow. Id have that again on 30/11 anyday :D :D

 

Yep a warm north sea is perfect especially so for those in the east, all we need is some lower 850's like this then it would be boom time

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Weren't the uppers a fair bit colder in 2010, it being that much later, and the preceding summer that much cooler? But, I agree, I would also like a repeat of 30/11... :yahoo:

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Yep a warm north sea is perfect especially so for those in the east, all we need is some lower 850's like this then it would be boom time

 

Are you feeling ok Gavin??, I am a bit worried about you today, if you are ok though then welcome aboard the Siberian express, it took you a while but we have converted you at last. :laugh:

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Weren't the uppers a fair bit colder in 2010, it being that much later, and the preceding summer that much cooler? But, I agree, I would also like a repeat of 30/11... :yahoo:

Uppers weren't predicted to be all that cold initially in November 2010 either, but yeah, it is pretty high stakes at this time of year - if you don't get the sub -8C uppers in place, and for that you basically need Arctic sourced rather than continental air, then easterlies can be incredibly dreich. 

Even in November 2010 we needed a few days of dull easterlies before we eventually brought in the proper Arctic sourced easterlies:

archives-2010-11-21-0-0.png

I'd expect something similar IF this does come off to our liking (and that's pretty much what the ECM would bring as well, with the real cold/snow potential only arriving if/when the trough drops into Scandinavia).

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^^^last five...

 

All we can do is HOPE!!!!!

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hehe, i was shocked at Summer Suns posts today aswell :p

 

I dont think its him, I think its Frosty posing as him!!! :wink:

 

I cannot beleive Frosty isnt here commenting on all these wonderfull charts..... :cold:

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If it was a month later, I'd be getting very excited. But, with SSTs as warm as they are at this time of year, the prospect of persistent rain and sleet, coupled to a nagging ENE wind, makes me err towards depression! :fool:

There speaks someone who lives near the east coast.

 

still an easterly would work, Gale Force 9 or stronger,  would melt quickly once it dropped though

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Easterlies can deliver preety cold conditions in November, but as others have stated you do usually need an injection of arctic sourced air into them to produce notable cold, otherwise you end up with dull raw conditions only. Nov 1993 is a good example of a very cold easterly for November - it was a classic long draw easterly with an arctic source, sub zero maxima were recorded in a number of places.

 

Generally speaking northerly and northeasterly airstreams are far more likely to deliver proper cold conditions relative to the time of year in November.

 

An easterly on the back of a northerly has a good chance of keeping a notable cold theme in November.

 

Thinking ahead, we don't normally see truely cold condition set in before christmas, however, our expectations have increased markedly since 2008, on the back of 4 years which have produced early winter cold, most notably in 2010. Last year has brought us back to earth a little, but memories of late Nov 2010 linger long still..

Personally I would prefer an early winter outbreak such as occured in 2008 and 2012 which both delivered a wintry cold start to December, but then followed by the wonderful second half of Dec 2009, rather than 2010 which I always thought was too good to last through winter proper..

 

I'll just be happy though with an average cold spell before christmas with some decent frosty cold conditions..

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Easterlies can deliver preety cold conditions in November, but as others have stated you do usually need an injection of arctic sourced air into them to produce notable cold, otherwise you end up with dull raw conditions only. Nov 1993 is a good example of a very cold easterly for November - it was a classic long draw easterly with an arctic source, sub zero maxima were recorded in a number of places.

 

Generally speaking northerly and northeasterly airstreams are far more likely to deliver proper cold conditions relative to the time of year in November.

 

An easterly on the back of a northerly has a good chance of keeping a notable cold theme in November.

 

Thinking ahead, we don't normally see truely cold condition set in before christmas, however, our expectations have increased markedly since 2008, on the back of 4 years which have produced early winter cold, most notably in 2010. Last year has brought us back to earth a little, but memories of late Nov 2010 linger long still..

Personally I would prefer an early winter outbreak such as occured in 2008 and 2012 which both delivered a wintry cold start to December, but then followed by the wonderful second half of Dec 2009, rather than 2010 which I always thought was too good to last through winter proper..

 

I'll just be happy though with an average cold spell before christmas with some decent frosty cold conditions..

 

If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

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If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

 

 

I think Nov 95 delivered only localised snowfalls to eastern parts, most notably NE Scotland and was a very shortlived affair, whereas Nov 93 produced a pronounced cold spell lasting from about the 18th through to the end of the month, with snow fairly widespread away from the west, more so eastern coastal districts, but even here we had a little snow. It produced some very cold minima and freezing fog. Nov 95 in the main was mild.

 

The following Decembers were very different, Dec 95 soon turned cold with an exceptional cold blast during the last week in the north, whereas Dec 93 stayed mild throughout in the south, less so in the north with a cold snowy second half. Prior to 2010, the three coldest Novembers of the last 30 years i.e. 1985, 1988 and 1993 were all followed by mild/very mild Decembers.

Edited by damianslaw
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I think Nov 95 delivered only localised snowfalls to eastern parts, most notably NE Scotland and was a very shortlived affair, whereas Nov 93 produced a pronounced cold spell lasting from about the 18th through to the end of the month, with snow fairly widespread away from the west, more so eastern coastal districts, but even here we had a little snow. It produced some very cold minima and freezing fog. Nov 95 in the main was mild.

 

The following Decembers were very different, Dec 95 soon turned cold with an exceptional cold blast during the last week in the north, whereas Dec 93 stayed mild throughout in the south, less so in the north with a cold snowy second half. Prior to 2010, the three coldest Novembers of the last 30 years i.e. 1985, 1988 and 1993 were all followed by mild/very mild Decembers.

 

Yes 93 was a cracker but I remember being a little disappointed (don't know why as it was only November) when we only got a few small falls, I really enjoyed the week before xmas 93 and in between xmas and new year (nothing massive but a good few falls), and fen 94 was a corker (all those events in the midlands), that was a very underrated winter in my opinion. I was also a bit disappointed with 95 Dec because although bitter, the most we had on ground at any one time was an inch and a half, other places got marmalised, that was rectified on the 5th Feb 96 of course when we did get battered.

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Why does Gavin have a posting restriction to 10 a day?  It it like a Net weather addiction tariff ?

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

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If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

I'm pretty sure we had a decent fall of snow at some stage in November 95 but it was a blink and you miss it affair.

Mid November 96 delivered two 6 inch falls here which combined, hung around for a few days although I assume our altitude helped.

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If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

That was more of a NEly

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