Early winter hopes and chat

[radiohead]

Yes but between each run the direction of the cold air seems to change.

That's perfectly normal when looking at distant events. Each time the model is run it is inputted with the latest observations. That will cause changes from the previous run, and the further into the future you go, the bigger those changes will become.

[Wilxy]

My suspicions were correct. The 6z is a disaster.

 

I wouldn't get down about one run it is only the beginning of November we don't want it to turn cold to early it will more than likely be a milder second half, its been a good morning again lets wait and see what the 12z shows.

[lassie23]

The NAO is forecast to go netural/ negative, the AO is forecast to go negative too! The jet stream will eventually be sinking south and northern blocking will form ! Without sounding like Madden, BIG FREEZE ON ITS WAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER! I do hope I haven't jumped the gun and cursed it! :ninja:   Maybe I should be more cautious just in case it all goes pear shaped!   SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY WITH SLEET FOR LATE NOVEMBER!

[Winter Frost]

I wouldn't get down about one run it is only the beginning of November we don't want it to turn cold to early it will more than likely be a milder second half, its been a good morning again lets wait and see what the 12z shows.

Well I don't mind if its cold November, December, January and mild February. Folk go on about the snow being too early but at 9 hours of daylight does it really matter? Daylight increases alot in February. Lets see what 12z shows yes.

[John Badrick]

Here's a graph of annual sunspots with winter CET values below 3C marked off along the line. It should give an idea of relationship between cold winters and sunspots.

 

Thanks for the info BFTV

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well I don't mind if its cold November, December, January and mild February. Folk go on about the snow being too early but at 9 hours of daylight does it really matter? Daylight increases alot in February. Lets see what 12z shows yes.

Oh absolutely. Snow and cold in December and January trumps February for me. At 55m above sea level, the sun rapidly melts lying snow in Feb.

[Hocus Pocus]

Oh absolutely. Snow and cold in December and January trumps February for me. At 55m above sea level, the sun rapidly melts lying snow in Feb.

+1 Have to agree bar 78/79 February 96 and even the 96 one didn't stay around for more than three days, I'll take cold and snow in the latter part of this month, December and January and have an early spring come February. Now someone will recite 1947 as an example but that was as extreme as extreme can be.

[feb1991blizzard]

Feb 91, Feb 96, Feb 86 all delivered absolute pastings and days of lying snow to sea level and even for some Southern areas as well.

[Winter Frost]

Ok so the 12z is better in that the the Polar vortex is aligned differently but now we have the problem of the cold air being pushed north. I think we should wait a few days for this to be resolved.. Can't seem to make its mind up. 

[JeffC]

+1 Have to agree bar 78/79 February 96 and even the 96 one didn't stay around for more than three days, I'll take cold and snow in the latter part of this month, December and January and have an early spring come February. Now someone will recite 1947 as an example but that was as extreme as extreme can be.

Yes, but late March 2013 snow stayed round for ages here 1 because it was blooming cold, 2. because there was so much of it! 14" level by the Saturday morning, then the moaning bitter easterly whipped up and caused some interesting drifts at low levels which higher up on the fells translated into 10 and 15 feet drifts...in the words of Max Boyce I know, cos I was there! Snow stayed at low levels until after Easter and that was April...

Edited November 7, 2014 by JeffC

[Polar Maritime]

The drifts were up to the gutters round here in March 2013, The Blizzards were incredible.

[Wynn D Woo]

The drifts were up to the gutters round here in March 2013, The Blizzards were incredible.

Would love to have seen that, even in the very best winter that couldn't happen here.

March 2013 itself was rubbish here, no snow at any point and lots of cold rain. For us the first week of Feb represents the last chance for decent long lying snow, there after it can snow and settle even but rarely last more than a few hours at very best.

[Mair Snaw]

Yes march 2013 was a cracker here....blizzard started friday afternoon and kept going until the sunday afternoon.....village was cut off for a week i used a ton of logs and half a bunker of coal trying to keep warm...the drifts were simply mind blowing and still hanging around in the middle of April.....god only knows what it would have been like if it had been DJF.....Some more of that action this winter will defo do for me....

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Big S, I remember chatting to you in the regional's at the time when you lived in Hartington just a few miles from me, We were cut off here for days due to drifts wall to wall. 

Edited November 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mair Snaw]

Yes Big S, I remember chatting to you in the regional's at the time when you lived in Hartington, We were cut off here for days due to drifts wall to wall. 

A great weekend in the thread that was...wasnt Hartington tho PM it was Brassington so just round the corner to you...i remember the pictures of the drifts at the end of your road....that bitter east wind will live long in my memory along with the sight of the snow plough getting stuck at the entrance to the village and being dug out by the local farmer in his JCB.....just talking about it make my tummy go fuzzy.....

[Hocus Pocus]

The drifts were up to the gutters round here in March 2013, The Blizzards were incredible.

Altitude  305m Lol. March was a fantastic month that year, but that's spring and was as rare as hens teeth.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Hocus Pocus]

Feb 91, Feb 96, Feb 86 all delivered absolute pastings and days of lying snow to sea level and even for some Southern areas as well.

91 saw a day and half of lying snow and 86 saw a dusting of snow around these parts. The ones I've commented on are the ones that saw lying snow for more than two days and 78/79 and 96 are the stand out ones. 

[Polar Maritime]

Altitude  305m Lol.

 

I've never known anyone laugh about my alt before 

[Weather-history]

even the 96 one didn't stay around for more than three days

That was because of the vigorous low that came through the early hours of that Friday. We had lying snow here on the low ground right up to that point but was washed away thanks to that system

Edited November 7, 2014 by Weather-history

[feb1991blizzard]

91 saw a day and half of lying snow and 86 saw a dusting of snow around these parts. The ones I've commented on are the ones that saw lying snow for more than two days and 78/79 and 96 are the stand out ones. 

 

But that maybe luck or due to that particular setup not delivering enough snow, not necessarily the sun strength, I personally would like a decent tonking before xmas this year because the last couple of years its almost like weve been playing catch up chasing it after xmas, I hate it when it gets to a last chance saloon will it wont it undercut scenario and if it doesn't its game over until next year, lets get a really notable cold spell in for most and then if it continues and ends up an 09 or even 47 or 63 then great, if it doesn't we will still have had something though.

[Paul_1978]

Seen no frost at all yet morning as the cloud rolls in.A few years ago like late 00`s there was frost in September.

Or block them in your Preferences ;-)

[EML Network]

Putting aside the Strat developments, OPi etc and just looking at the raw outputs of the GFS runs over the past few weeks, it's apparent (at least to my eyes), that the building blocks really are beginning to take shape for a cold spell either later in November or early in December. 

 

As the days progress the output keeps toying with the idea of cold air flooding into Europe in FI land but staying just out of reach, which is fine , I'd rather we get a decent cold spell in December as opposed to Mid or late November as long as it comes off the back of relative cold, so that the dew points have better chance to going sub zero and the wet bulb temperatures get low. 

 

There's nowt worse that seeing a foot of snow fall overnight only for it to have all but melted by the time you get to midday due to the wet bulb being too high.

 

Things look promising and I am liking the way it's all shaping up

[hillbilly]

91 saw a day and half of lying snow and 86 saw a dusting of snow around these parts. The ones I've commented on are the ones that saw lying snow for more than two days and 78/79 and 96 are the stand out ones. 

It does seem strange that you have had little snow at your location,you must be right in the valley bottom,am sure areas around you that are just a little higher must have faired well.What is your altitude?

[Winter Frost]

Putting aside the Strat developments, OPi etc and just looking at the raw outputs of the GFS runs over the past few weeks, it's apparent (at least to my eyes), that the building blocks really are beginning to take shape for a cold spell either later in November or early in December. 

 

As the days progress the output keeps toying with the idea of cold air flooding into Europe in FI land but staying just out of reach, which is fine , I'd rather we get a decent cold spell in December as opposed to Mid or late November as long as it comes off the back of relative cold, so that the dew points have better chance to going sub zero and the wet bulb temperatures get low. 

 

There's nowt worse that seeing a foot of snow fall overnight only for it to have all but melted by the time you get to midday due to the wet bulb being too high.

 

Things look promising and I am liking the way it's all shaping up

Why? What difference does it make? If its going to be cold in November, its going to be cold. Yes I realise the sea might be a bit warmer but if the cold comes from the arctic or Scandinavia, it really will not matter. 

Edited November 7, 2014 by Winter Frost

[Snowyowl9]

It does seem strange that you have had little snow at your location,you must be right in the valley bottom,am sure areas around you that are just a little higher must have faired well.What is your altitude?

He must be living below sea level huh.

1991 two weeks snow,granted feb 1986 was a non effort for lying snow low ground in lots of places,but high ground the longest lying snow 6weeks continuous lying snow since 1963,1979 a very snowy winter but not as snowy as the east by looking on here.

1996 not a classic like 1981/82/85 etc etc, but very good on average.

1987 january the coldest maxes on record snow must of stayed for upto 2weeks on low ground.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Snowyowl9