Early winter hopes and chat

[Hocus Pocus]

If and when we do see a cold spell if it's from the East like some are suggesting then lets hope it backs far enough Westwards as the last few incursions from that direction have struggled to effect Western parts, more so for those who live in Ireland, a February 91 96 or 79 will suffice. Regarding the CFS model I have little faith in that particular model, or any other long range model really but with the state of play with the PV then surely it's only a matter of time before we see cold spell.

Edited November 13, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Ninman]

Madden says:

 

The computer models are still all over the place - today they want to keep the wet & windy scenario going for the foreseeable...

However, they will have no choice but to adjust to something more cold and wintry (snow) throughout the 'second half of November' and into December (watch this space for the imminent changes)

 

So does he threaten them if they don't adhere to his hopecasts?

 

I am satisfied that we have autumnal weather in autumn - cold and snow is for winter (Dec-Feb)

[Hocus Pocus]

Madden says:

 

The computer models are still all over the place - today they want to keep the wet & windy scenario going for the foreseeable...

However, they will have no choice but to adjust to something more cold and wintry (snow) throughout the 'second half of November' and into December (watch this space for the imminent changes)

 

So does he threaten them if they don't adhere to his hopecasts?

 

I am satisfied that we have autumnal weather in autumn - cold and snow is for winter (Dec-Feb)

Lol, whatever the outcome he'll claim a moral victory with twisted words and more back-pedalling than a politician.

[johnholmes]

throughout the 'second half of November

the second half start on 16th=3 days from now. Does it look likely?

How likely does it look even 10 days away=23 November?

[Ninman]

throughout the 'second half of November

the second half start on 16th=3 days from now. Does it look likely?

How likely does it look even 10 days away=23 November?

 

Exactly John, I would use the word deluded but that is an understatement!

 

Anyway...back to the real world! I hope December brings a taste of winter (a few cold crisp days and a little frost would be good), with the core of any cold/snow weather in January to keep the festive/winter feeling going after christmas to make going back in to the office tolerable.

 

In January this year I was on a business trip to Warsaw. It was about -15c and biting winds, overcast and snow flurries. It was sooo cold but the locals said it was nothing special and it gets much colder. I'm glad we have water surrounding our land; I couldnt cope with that every year!

[damianslaw]

If we class early winter as December (certainly not November..), all I hope for is a spell of cold conditions with a snowfall at some stage, preferably the run up to Christmas or during the Christmas-new year week, early December on average tends to be a very westerly period with wind and rain and mild conditions. 2009 was excellent in this respect. 2010 though exceptional did become a damp squib after the 27th - if only the cold could have lasted a week longer a truly special Christmas-new year week would have occurred. 2000 was also excellent- yes a very mild wet first half, but it turned very cold with snow just after Christmas.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

throughout the 'second half of November

the second half start on 16th=3 days from now. Does it look likely?

How likely does it look even 10 days away=23 November?

It might be garbage?  But so is this

As the outlook covers the transition from autumn into winter, there can be big changes in how UK weather is influenced by prevailing weather patterns during the period."

Confidence in how the weather patterns will develop later in the period reduces and this is reflected in the outlook when it states "the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases later in the period".

 

Really?  That ain't covered in glory either...

 

BFTP

Edited November 13, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mair Snaw]

Madden says:

 

The computer models are still all over the place - today they want to keep the wet & windy scenario going for the foreseeable...

However, they will have no choice but to adjust to something more cold and wintry (snow) throughout the 'second half of November' and into December (watch this space for the imminent changes)

 

So does he threaten them if they don't adhere to his hopecasts?

 

I am satisfied that we have autumnal weather in autumn - cold and snow is for winter (Dec-Feb)

Oh we are watching....Maybe we should start a thread called "Madden Says" when we see something the crazy man has said we post it then we can see how wrong or right he is.....And also could you just imagine if the models actually did as Madden said....the UK would see more snow than we can deal with....

Edited November 13, 2014 by bigsnow

[meathead]

The only positive thing I can think of at the moment is that the charts are clearly all over the place. Hopefully they are just getting grips with the seasonal change and will hopefully start being a bit more consistent soon.

 

Ps - Is anyone fed up of Brian Gaze? He comes across as a mild troll sometime on his Twitter account. He's one forecaster that really gets up my nose!

[johnholmes]

It might be garbage?  But so is this

Really?  That ain't covered in glory either...

 

BFTP

 

 

ah one is scientific the other is not, guess which and we wait with bated breath for your prediction mate

[Hocus Pocus]

ah one is scientific the other is not, guess which and we wait with bated breath for your prediction mate

But neither are informative or that scientific really as most members on here could have written  either.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ah one is scientific the other is not, guess which and we wait with bated breath for your prediction mate

Its already out there John, but from the apparent world leading body it ain't good simple as that.

 

Confidence in how the weather patterns will develop later in the period reduces and this is reflected in the outlook when it states "the risk of occasional colder outbreaks increases later in the period".

 

 

I for one just expect more from them...that's all because anyone could write it.  One 'would expect' that chances of colder outbreaks increases as you go deeper into winter

 

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Neilsouth]

The only positive thing I can think of at the moment is that the charts are clearly all over the place. Hopefully they are just getting grips with the seasonal change and will hopefully start being a bit more consistent soon.

 

Ps - Is anyone fed up of Brian Gaze? He comes across as a mild troll sometime on his Twitter account. He's one forecaster that really gets up my nose!

 

Last year we didn't have any frost, it was that bad!

 

As for BG, not one of my fans, changes his forecasts weekly then says "Our forecast was pretty much spot on"

[carinthian]

Last year we didn't have any frost, it was that bad!

 

As for BG, not one of my fans, changes his forecasts weekly then says "Our forecast was pretty much spot on"

I know some of you in the south have not had a single snowflake for nearly 20 months ! Must be some sort of record that.  God knows when you will see the next one, hopefully sooner than later. The record cold March of 13 must seem a long time ago now. Anyway, fingers crossed for you cold and snow lovers. That's all you want for Christmas !

If it makes any of you feel better, we too are going through a very mild Autumn and wet as well.

 C

[TEITS]

Although I haven't been very active on this forum lately I have been following all threads discussing this oncoming winter. I have to say at the moment im not convinced by some of the wintry predictions by some. I shall explain why below.

 

1. Seasonal models do not suggest a very cold winter. What always puzzles me is I find the accuracy of the ECMWF/Met O seasonal models to be fairly good and yet these models cannot really factor in what may occur in the Stratosphere during the winter months. So with this in mind maybe too much emphasis is placed on the Stratosphere without looking at all the other variables. I have lost count how many times I have read promising signs in the Stratosphere thread which have not been followed by a cold spell. Don't get me wrong im not putting down those who contribute to this thread but for me I do not rush out to buy a sledge or stock up my fridge/freezer based on this.

 

2. Met Office have not indicated a cold winter and I have alot of respect for the Met O and they are highly regarded by other forecasting agencies across the world. Who can forget the way they predicted the cold spells of 09/10 way in advance of anyone else even when it wasn't apparent in the models. What members should take on board is it doesn't matter what the GFS in F.I might be suggesting or the Stratosphere thread if this isn't backed by the Met O 30 day forecast.

 

3. Im always sceptical of forecasts on forums simply due to being biased. I should know because im the biggest cold ramper on here and always allow my bias to affect my judgement. My point is I believe some are so focussed on the possible signs towards a cold winter they do not look for the signs that may indicate a mild winter.

 

So in summary I shall await and see what happens as at the moment some of the forecasts are chalk and cheese especially the prediction of the AO/NAO. My own personal thoughts as my forecasting has always been instinctive, is a fairly average UK winter which will consist of more snowfall than last year (isn't difficult!) but nothing like 2010.

Edited November 14, 2014 by TEITS

[Weather-history]

Two things for me saying the statistical elastic band is stretching for this winter.

A notable Scandinavian high during the heart of winter. Mid 90s were the last ones. All others have been either the start or end of winter season or mediocre efforts such as early January 2010.

The other is we not had a notably cold February since 1991.

Could both fall this winter? Well we not had an April, June nor September at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 CET average for well over a decade and all three targets were met in 2012!

[Summer Sun]

19 months since we had snow on the ground here in Darlington remarkable considering how far north we are

[carinthian]

19 months since we had snow on the ground here in Darlington remarkable considering how far north we are

That's just amazing for the NE of England. I know some parts of the south coast have not even recorded an air frost for 20months as well !

[carinthian]

I know some of you in the south have not had a single snowflake for nearly 20 months ! Must be some sort of record that.  God knows when you will see the next one, hopefully sooner than later. The record cold March of 13 must seem a long time ago now. Anyway, fingers crossed for you cold and snow lovers. That's all you want for Christmas !

If it makes any of you feel better, we too are going through a very mild Autumn and wet as well.

 C

Just following on from the above post, no early winter here, a foehn effect to the north of here will produce temps up to 17C today.Snow line now above 2000m. I cannot see our ski -season starting on 29th November, unless we get a sudden cold spell.

C

[Summer Sun]

That's just amazing for the NE of England. I know some parts of the south coast have not even recorded an air frost for 20months as well !

 

Thats the one thing we did get some frosts though they were few and far between don't think we had much more than 8 during last winter

[johnholmes]

But neither are informative or that scientific really as most members on here could have written  either.

I suggest you pass your comments on to UK Met

Its already out there John, but from the apparent world leading body it ain't good simple as that.

 

 

I for one just expect more from them...that's all because anyone could write it.  One 'would expect' that chances of colder outbreaks increases as you go deeper into winter

 

BFTP

 

as my other post-write to them and express your dissatisfaction, nowt I can do about it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I suggest you pass your comments on to UK Met

 

as my other post-write to them and express your dissatisfaction, nowt I can do about it.

 

It's a pity that some cannot understand that a scientific analysis that results in a prediction of uncertainty can be just as valid as one that results in a confident clear prediction.

People seem to think that unless you can predict what the weather will do with a high degree of confidence, you're not any good. Sometimes things can be uncertain, with conflicting signals, and stating that uncertainty is the best forecast (although not the most impressive sounding).

 

The degree of certainty that individuals attribute to their forecasts is not a measure of their scientific validity, nor their accuracy.

[Radiating Dendrite]

It's a pity that some cannot understand that a scientific analysis that results in a prediction of uncertainty can be just as valid as one that results in a confident clear prediction.

People seem to think that unless you can predict what the weather will do with a high degree of confidence, you're not any good. Sometimes things can be uncertain, with conflicting signals, and stating that uncertainty is the best forecast (although not the most impressive sounding).

 

The degree of certainty that individuals attribute to their forecasts is not a measure of their scientific validity, nor their accuracy.

 

I think what some people question is if you are going to say you are uncertain in every forecast then why bother doing them at all.

 

Would the resources not be better directed to improving forecasts in the mid range 5 - 8 day period? We have more chance of putting a man on Mars than we do forecasting the weather to any great degree of accuracy beyond 15 - 20 days.

[Hocus Pocus]

I think what some people question is if you are going to say you are uncertain in every forecast then why bother doing them at all.

 

Would the resources not be better directed to improving forecasts in the mid range 5 - 8 day period? We have more chance of putting a man on Mars than we do forecasting the weather to any great degree of accuracy beyond 15 - 20 days.

Indeed RD and that was my point. I expect a better analysis from  the MetO, now if they are scared of committing  to LRF ( understandable after certain quarters of the media  act towards them ) then say nothing at all rather than some half hearted attempt. I love weather and find all analysis, forecasts etc, etc, fascinating so when viewing the MetO's long range analysis I find myself thinking, " is this the best they can do". I know and everyone here knows  it's not, so rather than give a quick  overview on how winters pan out how about some meat on the bones and go into detail much like some of Net Weathers finest do.

[Hocus Pocus]

It's a pity that some cannot understand that a scientific analysis that results in a prediction of uncertainty can be just as valid as one that results in a confident clear prediction.

People seem to think that unless you can predict what the weather will do with a high degree of confidence, you're not any good. Sometimes things can be uncertain, with conflicting signals, and stating that uncertainty is the best forecast (although not the most impressive sounding).

 

The degree of certainty that individuals attribute to their forecasts is not a measure of their scientific validity, nor their accuracy.

That's a fair point BFTV, but we all know LRF can never be accurate per say so they could add that caveat at the end of any LRF. I just want them to produce LRF, I for one wouldn't knock them if they got wrong.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Hocus Pocus