Early winter hopes and chat

[Smiler1709]

Some of them on the mod thread are so tragic, loads of trolls just seeking attention or to wind others up.

November normally is a wet month and December can be a mixed bag with the odd fleeting cold snaps, most of the time January is when the fun and games begin. I'm staying very optimistic about this winter, the opi team says so

[stewfox]

!981/2 started before Christmas.....I liked that one

 

December 10th 1981 on the way to college bus skidded across the snowy icy road. Mums  birthday remember it well

[Ravelin]

There are specific temperatures for each season which the Met Office use, somewhere is a copy on Net Wx. I will see if I can find it and post in here.

that did not work will have to save to a file and then post-give me a bit of time?

 

Temp definitions.doc

Thanks. So mild is defined by Met Office as 2-3C above the average temperature for the time of year. Kind of how I would have defined it, although I'd probably have gone for 3-4C.

[Mair Snaw]

Well, according to some in the MOD thread tonight...winter is over. Well, yeah. It's not wintery outside at the moment because....IT STILL HASN'T BEGUN. Some people are embarassing on the thread...truly. 

 

11th of November - who cares what happened last year, or for the previous 20 years before. This winter could still be a repeat of last year...or 1947. 

It's the 12th today not the 11th so maybe thats whats tipped them over the edge....

[feb1991blizzard]

Cold clustering developing on the de bilt ensembles, maybe depicting the next undercutting attempt.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

December 10th 1981 on the way to college bus skidded across the snowy icy road. Mums  birthday remember it well

 

Remember it well also stew, '81 was my first year in work after leaving school in the summer.  Also them days you left school and got a job, apart from the 5% of very clever kids who went onto university .....................................

[Cheshire Freeze]

RE John Hammond....I noticed the same thing last night and noted it in here. Ties in with the intimation from SnowBallz yesterday on interesting signals emerging into December. Obviously if these are only just emerging, there likely won't be any hints in the extended Metoffice forecast yet.

[Mair Snaw]

Well im resorting to watching 'The Day After Tomorrow' now there is some cold and snow on offer.........

[Mark Neal.]

Well im resorting to watching 'The Day After Tomorrow' now there is some cold and snow on offer.........

I'd Settle for Narnia 

[damianslaw]

Interesting thoughts - there are certainly some similarities with now and 2009, Nov 2009 being exceptionally wet with an equally locked in disruptive trough to our west.

[DAVID SNOW]

Taken from an experimental statistical summary. Of course all bases are covered, the sum of probabilities needs to total 100% 

 

Folks? I think you'll find it's a one-man bedsit operation. 

 

 OK here is my experimental  statistical forecast for the first half of winter based on probabilities.

 

 Dryer than average  20%

 

 Wetter than average 20%

 

 cooler than average  20%

 

 milder than average  20%

 

 windier than average  20%

 

Hope that helps, ps any agencies wishing to purchase the full winter  forecast, please don't bother.

[Thunder Snow]

Well at work they have given us a forecast out till February, I work for coop. They are saying wetter and milder for the reminder of November and the start of December . Then a pattern change may follow from mid December with the chance of cold or very cold period with the chance of very snowy interludes, a milder start to January before the cold bites back from mid Jan early Feb with a mild and often wet end to Feb ill take that looool

[Polar Maritime]

Which agency is the forecast from?

[Mair Snaw]

Which agency is the forecast from?

probably the Madden forecast agency, they can see into the future...lol

[stewfox]

Remember it well also stew, '81 was my first year in work after leaving school in the summer.  Also them days you left school and got a job, apart from the 5% of very clever kids who went onto university .....................................

 

Yes I was only good enough for a Poly 

[Thunder Snow]

Which agency is the forecast from?

ill double check and let you know

Edited November 12, 2014 by Osbourne One-Nil
By the way, if anyone knows if it's going to snow in Carlisle....

[lassie23]

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php Interesting video that brings hope of something snowy for December! :cold:

[PolarWarsaw]

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php Interesting video that brings hope of something snowy for December! :cold:

 

Only 30% sadly, as he says - very interesting but we need 101 pieces to fit together and with any given one missing we just stay mild. The perils of getting cold to the UK! 

[Festivefreeze]

If I remember right, last November saw a slightly below average CET for November...? However, the following winter, December-January-February, went on to be very mild. This November, however it is looking like being an above average month temperature wise. I am guessing that we will have a very mediocre December this year, with temperatures trending very near average.

 

I think a change could take place in the new year with the run of above average months finally coming to an end. February will probably be the first month to achieve a below average outcome, albeit only slightly below average. January, I think, will end up slightly milder than average, but the cold will come in the last 10 days.

 

In summary: I think the Atlantic will gradually lose it's strength as the winter progress (as you would expect on average). As the Atlantic cools down - I have read some reports that a NNAO might come into play in the new year! - high pressure will have more of an influence on our weather.

 

I think there won't be much snowfall, but plenty of dry but cold conditions. I think a 'cloudy high' will come into play at some point in December, probably after a rather unsettled start. The high will be centred slightly to the west of the UK, meaning that daytime temperatures will typically be around 6-8c, any clearing skies at night though are likely to result in patchy frost and fog, and daytime temperatures could be pegged back a little further in places where the fog is slow to clear.

 

All guesswork, I admit, but based on reports and articles I've read!

Edited November 13, 2014 by November2005Fan

[Mair Snaw]

Off topic but....We are looking to move house via social housing swapping....the wife just said "ive had a message from somebody that wants to swap a house in the highlands" now as a coldie im packed already....if i pull this one off i must be a dead cert for cold and snow every winter....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Big difference between last November and this November for us is quite clear. 

 

Last Year

• Steeper Temperature Gradient between the Azores and the Atlantic
• Vortex Structure

 

 

This Year

• No structure in vortex
• Disrupted jetstream

 

 

 

This for me is a really useful post and worth bearing in mind when some are saying we'll have a winter like last year.  If that profile brings the same wintewr then we might as well all give up.

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

We have lots of pieces of the jigsaw puzzle; unfortunately, they're all either blue sky or blue water...  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well if it's of any use, today is the first day that the CFS monthly anomaly for December has flipped to show N blocking after weeks of a more unsettled pattern.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well if it's of any use, today is the first day that the CFS monthly anomaly for December has flipped to show N blocking after weeks of a more unsettled pattern.

 

Yes it is of use, not because I rate it, I don't, but this is about the time it usually latches on to the correct pattern broadly speaking, after months of toing and froing, now some might say that's harsh on a model as how do you expect it to pick out a pattern at 3 months away, but my argument is why does it go out that far then, anyway the upshot is it has probably latched on to the correct pattern now.

[Hocus Pocus]