Early winter hopes and chat

[Hocus Pocus]

I like the way people are talking (including professional organisations) are talking about an organised vortex coming into play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also In my book the '10%' chance of an Easterly wind later this week is closer to 100%.

 

 

If that's the definition of an organised vortex and 10% chance of an Easterly, can I put in my order now for an organised vortex and 10% chance of an Easterly for the rest of the  winter. Roast Turkey and organised vortex for xmas please with fish, chips and 10% chance of an Easterly wind for the New year.

 

 

Yes I too must have a different definition to the word organised because to my untrained eye the above looks anything but organised.

[Summer Sun]

6th winter update from Gavin Partridge

 

[Winter Frost]

Why do people on this forum and other forums continue to insist that its too early for snow in November? It snowed in Northern Ireland last week to 1,000 feet its definitely not rare.

 

Can't understand this phenomenon. 

[mountain shadow]

On Friday night, the BBC Northern Ireland forecaster using information from the Met Office said the following " The weekend would be a good weekend for walking the dog, blues skies and temperatures around 10oC". The only rain on the NI chart was in the Irish sea, slightly hugging the County Down coast. The reality was it rained all day Saturday and most of Sunday in many parts of Northern Ireland.

 

The reason I use this, it to remind people, that even 12/24 hour forecasts can be significantly wrong, never mind looking a month or a season ahead.

 

The state of the vortex at the present time is clearly favourable towards a higher probability of colder weather hitting the UK, however, the Met Office, will always sit on the fence until they are sure.

 

As said previously, forecasting a wet and windy Winter is easy and likely to be correct 8 times out of ten.

[SW Saltire]

Why do people on this forum and other forums continue to insist that its too early for snow in November? It snowed in Northern Ireland last week to 1,000 feet its definitely not rare.

Can't understand this phenomenon.

Did it lie? For how long did it last?

If you want (most on this forum do) severity and longevity in a cold spell, say more than 5 days, then we rely on a 'cold pool' of uppers to 'tap' into.

This isn't readily available in November. South-easterlies aren't that cold, nor easterlies or north-easterlies. Straight Northerlies from the Arctic perhaps but it's a rare scenario.

As well as blocking to our North-East/ East being weaker than later on in winter (long term average of course as each winter is different) then we struggle to stop the Atlantic train pushing in mild air.

As North America cools and the warmth remains to the south then this temperature gradient fuels the jet. Again, working against us.

Then there is the surface conditions that all work against us. Temperature of the ground, SSTs etc etc.

Same goes for May really. May has a very strong sun but (excluding the last 5-10 days) it doesn't deliver the temperatures of July or August. There is a lag between decreasing/increasing sun and temperature on the ground.

So to conclude, of course it can and has snowed in November but it's unlikely.

Remember, it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas.

November usually has a strengthening Polar Vortex (this year is an exception thankfully), stronger Jet (this is there this year) than later on, less cold to tap into, higher surface temperatures and sea temperatures (which is relevant since we don't create a cold pool ourselves - or very rarely).

Thankfully, this year the PV has taken hits early on and looks to be flailing around.

We seem to not quite be able to get any real cold into the UK in the next couple of weeks, however, it does seem (from background indicators) that after a transition period after this tame easterly, with westerly winds returning, we should get a much better crack at it in late November/Early December. This time with far more condusive conditions to cold with much colder air available to be 'tapped' into.

Hope this perhaps helps

Edited November 10, 2014 by SW Saltire

[meathead]

Am I right in thinking the met office outlook in November 2010 was similar to what they have just posted?

[Hocus Pocus]

Am I right in thinking the met office outlook in November 2010 was similar to what they have just posted?

2009/10 was, though I'm not sure what they posted then but if my memory serves me right they was pretty much on the ball weeks in advance for that one.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes I too must have a different definition to the word organised because to my untrained eye the above looks anything but organised.

 

Sorry btw, that middle chart should have been the ECM but it doesn't show an organised vortex that's for sure.

[Hocus Pocus]

I think a lot of the confusion regarding the MetO is people thinking this is a forecast when in actual fact it's just their preliminary thoughts on the coming winter. I think it was a wise decision in them pulling out of the LRF market, until such a time ( if there ever is ) they can be at least 95% sure of making the right call. After all it's all to easy to knock them when they get it wrong but we forget just how often they get the short to medium term right

[Winter Frost]

Did it lie? For how long did it last?

If you want (most on this forum do) severity and longevity in a cold spell, say more than 5 days, then we rely on a 'cold pool' of uppers to 'tap' into.

This isn't readily available in November. South-easterlies aren't that cold, nor easterlies or north-easterlies. Straight Northerlies from the Arctic perhaps but it's a rare scenario.

As well as blocking to our North-East/ East being weaker than later on in winter (long term average of course as each winter is different) then we struggle to stop the Atlantic train pushing in mild air.

As North America cools and the warmth remains to the south then this temperature gradient fuels the jet. Again, working against us.

Then there is the surface conditions that all work against us. Temperature of the ground, SSTs etc etc.

Same goes for May really. May has a very strong sun but (excluding the last 5-10 days) it doesn't deliver the temperatures of July or August. There is a lag between decreasing/increasing sun and temperature on the ground.

So to conclude, of course it can and has snowed in November but it's unlikely.

Remember, it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas.

November usually has a strengthening Polar Vortex (this year is an exception thankfully), stronger Jet (this is there this year) than later on, less cold to tap into, higher surface temperatures and sea temperatures (which is relevant since we don't create a cold pool ourselves - or very rarely).

Thankfully, this year the PV has taken hits early on and looks to be flailing around.

We seem to not quite be able to get any real cold into the UK in the next couple of weeks, however, it does seem (from background indicators) that after a transition period after this tame easterly, with westerly winds returning, we should get a much better crack at it in late November/Early December. This time with far more condusive conditions to cold with much colder air available to be 'tapped' into.

Hope this perhaps helps

It lied at 1500 feet. I think it might differ for NI versus England.. Our cold and snow comes from the NW not the East. I am nearly sure its easier to get snow at christmas than easter since its coldest in December here. I can totally see where you are coming from but I think the people on the model thread need to be more broad in their discussion instead of only thinking of se england where the climate is quite a bit different.

It definitely snows in November here. Bar last year most years have had first snow falling in November. Our NW position helps

Edited November 10, 2014 by Winter Frost

[hillbilly]

It lied at 1500 feet. I think it might differ for NI versus England.. Our cold and snow comes from the NW not the East. I am nearly sure its easier to get snow at christmas than easter since its coldest in December here. I can totally see where you are coming from but I think the people on the model thread need to be more broad in their discussion instead of only thinking of se england where the climate is quite a bit different.

It definitely snows in November here. Bar last year most years have had first snow falling in November. Our NW position helps

There have been numerous occasions here when we have had snow in October although not for a few years now !!!

[SW Saltire]

It lied at 1500 feet. I think it might differ for NI versus England.. Our cold and snow comes from the NW not the East. I am nearly sure its easier to get snow at christmas than easter since its coldest in December here. I can totally see where you are coming from but I think the people on the model thread need to be more broad in their discussion instead of only thinking of se england where the climate is quite a bit different.

It definitely snows in November here. Bar last year most years have had first snow falling in November. Our NW position helps

I do kind of see where you are coming from.

However:

Firstly, I don't live in SE England as you can see from my location. Dumfries isn't that different to Northern Ireland in location.

Perhaps Easter (temperature wise) would be a stretch to beat December but are you sure December is your coldest month? I'm sure January is normally the coldest UK wide.

I do accept that your location will not be great for easterlies. However, getting snow from North-westerly air streams is quite rare (excluding high ground) and it is most potent in January/February compared with December.

I'm sure somebody could post the stats...

[Summer Sun]

Met office ens mean maps have updated for the final time before winter

 

Pressure is shown to be lower than average

 

 

2m temps look to be around average with large parts of Europe average or above average

 

 

850's slightly below average with large parts of Europe again average or above average

 

 

Precipitation is shown to be slightly above average

 

[Winter Frost]

Is  it not just the same old nonsense every year though? I've yet to see those charts show below average temps.

[terrier]

Think we can't discount the met outlook to be honest. The lrf models seem to be going for above average temps and above rainfall. Think we may be seeing all these positive signs from the qbo strat sai but I've got a funny feeling we're going to be on the wrong side of the blocking to be honest

[Yarmy]

Think we can't discount the met outlook to be honest. The lrf models seem to be going for above average temps and above rainfall. Think we may be seeing all these positive signs from the qbo strat sai but I've got a funny feeling we're going to be on the wrong side of the blocking to be honest

 

Ever the optimist.

 

Nonetheless, I too would rather see at least some of the longer range forecasts going for something more interesting. Que sera, sera.

[Winter Cold]

Well its sickening seeing bloody America getting the cold again.

 

Already the BBC have put up a video showing it, makes me so angry!!!!!!!!!

 

They get the goods year after year so easily, grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !

[throwoff]

It is November the 10th...

 

People come on! We don't need to be throwing our toys around yet. 

 

Sure we will have a mild wet spell but that is normal for this time of they year. 

 

Relax!

[johnholmes]

Well its sickening seeing bloody America getting the cold again.

 

Already the BBC have put up a video showing it, makes me so angry!!!!!!!!!

 

They get the goods year after year so easily, grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !

 

do you not understand why? Much like many areas of Russia and other areas with very large land masses.

[feb1991blizzard]

The Glosea 5 update isn't absolutely tragic anyway, some points to note, a) There is some slightly above average heights over the Arctic with a mean trough sat over us,  b) This is a 3 month ensemble mean so you would still expect some cold snaps, c) The temperature forecast is between average and very slightly above average.

 

[bluearmy]

Well its sickening seeing bloody America getting the cold again.

 

Already the BBC have put up a video showing it, makes me so angry!!!!!!!!!

 

They get the goods year after year so easily, grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !

I think it helps to not have a sea to their north and for the default vortex position to be either pointing at them or delivering lee cold.

[Timmytour]

Not sure why we have gone via the media and its spin when we can go straight to the horse's mouth

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/category/met-office-news/

Pretty similar to a statement they issued in 2010 when the likes of Nathan Rao no less, then in the Mail, was painting a Met forecast of mild winter on his subjective analysis

[Cleeve Hill]

On page 53 of the model discussion thread, tamara writes another great post, and she hints at a classic piece of weather lore.

"If there's ice in November that will bear a duck, there'll be nothing after but sludge and muck".

This makes sense for so many meteorology reasons. With El nino now official, really looking forward to December & Jan.

[DAVID SNOW]

"An increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period  NDJ.

 

" However there are substantial probabilities that either average or cool/dry conditions may occur.

 

 Is  this a 'forecast' from the daily express?

 

Nope, from our very own Meto

 

All basses covered then...........

 

 PS. no miss quotes.

[Timmytour]

is this a positive......Nathan Reo is a journalist who loves to splash out on the cold arctic 100 days of snow headlines....i can't really remember him concentrating on the milder side of a forecast since....well since 2010!!!!!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/208012/Winter-to-be-mild-predicts-Met-Office
 

Winter to be mild predicts Met Office

Now....following last year's "100 days of snow" complete load of codswallop. dear old Nathan is going for the consecutive days of storms...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/533663/Uk-weather-forecast-rain-wind-storms-December


 

Britain's 30 days of storms: UK set for half a month's rain in just TWO HOURS tomorrow