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Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Absolute belter, just had a massive leak from my kitchen sink so been stemming the flow and mopping up but what a webb of intrigue to come back to!!!!!

 

 

:yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

 

:yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Low chance or not ECM is very much going for an easterly

 

ECM1-192.GIFECM1-216.GIF?08-0images.jpg

 

 

:cold:  :bomb:

Ned Stark: WINTER IS COMING!! :yahoo:  :cold: :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If it was a month later, I'd be getting very excited. But, with SSTs as warm as they are at this time of year, the prospect of persistent rain and sleet, coupled to a nagging ENE wind, makes me err towards depression! :fool:

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

But wasnt the warm north sea the reason i got burried by snow in Dec 10? im sure it was that contrast with the cold air that made all the snow. Id have that again on 30/11 anyday :D :D

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

But wasn't the warm north sea the reason i got burried by snow in Dec 10? im sure it was that contrast with the cold air that made all the snow. Id have that again on 30/11 anyday :D :D

 

Yep a warm north sea is perfect especially so for those in the east, all we need is some lower 850's like this then it would be boom time

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Weren't the uppers a fair bit colder in 2010, it being that much later, and the preceding summer that much cooler? But, I agree, I would also like a repeat of 30/11... :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
 

Yep a warm north sea is perfect especially so for those in the east, all we need is some lower 850's like this then it would be boom time

 

Are you feeling ok Gavin??, I am a bit worried about you today, if you are ok though then welcome aboard the Siberian express, it took you a while but we have converted you at last. :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Weren't the uppers a fair bit colder in 2010, it being that much later, and the preceding summer that much cooler? But, I agree, I would also like a repeat of 30/11... :yahoo:

Uppers weren't predicted to be all that cold initially in November 2010 either, but yeah, it is pretty high stakes at this time of year - if you don't get the sub -8C uppers in place, and for that you basically need Arctic sourced rather than continental air, then easterlies can be incredibly dreich. 

Even in November 2010 we needed a few days of dull easterlies before we eventually brought in the proper Arctic sourced easterlies:

archives-2010-11-21-0-0.png

I'd expect something similar IF this does come off to our liking (and that's pretty much what the ECM would bring as well, with the real cold/snow potential only arriving if/when the trough drops into Scandinavia).

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Nice to hear that Gav  :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

hehe, i was shocked at Summer Suns posts today aswell :p

 

I dont think its him, I think its Frosty posing as him!!! :wink:

 

I cannot beleive Frosty isnt here commenting on all these wonderfull charts..... :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

If it was a month later, I'd be getting very excited. But, with SSTs as warm as they are at this time of year, the prospect of persistent rain and sleet, coupled to a nagging ENE wind, makes me err towards depression! :fool:

There speaks someone who lives near the east coast.

 

still an easterly would work, Gale Force 9 or stronger,  would melt quickly once it dropped though

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Easterlies can deliver preety cold conditions in November, but as others have stated you do usually need an injection of arctic sourced air into them to produce notable cold, otherwise you end up with dull raw conditions only. Nov 1993 is a good example of a very cold easterly for November - it was a classic long draw easterly with an arctic source, sub zero maxima were recorded in a number of places.

 

Generally speaking northerly and northeasterly airstreams are far more likely to deliver proper cold conditions relative to the time of year in November.

 

An easterly on the back of a northerly has a good chance of keeping a notable cold theme in November.

 

Thinking ahead, we don't normally see truely cold condition set in before christmas, however, our expectations have increased markedly since 2008, on the back of 4 years which have produced early winter cold, most notably in 2010. Last year has brought us back to earth a little, but memories of late Nov 2010 linger long still..

Personally I would prefer an early winter outbreak such as occured in 2008 and 2012 which both delivered a wintry cold start to December, but then followed by the wonderful second half of Dec 2009, rather than 2010 which I always thought was too good to last through winter proper..

 

I'll just be happy though with an average cold spell before christmas with some decent frosty cold conditions..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Easterlies can deliver preety cold conditions in November, but as others have stated you do usually need an injection of arctic sourced air into them to produce notable cold, otherwise you end up with dull raw conditions only. Nov 1993 is a good example of a very cold easterly for November - it was a classic long draw easterly with an arctic source, sub zero maxima were recorded in a number of places.

 

Generally speaking northerly and northeasterly airstreams are far more likely to deliver proper cold conditions relative to the time of year in November.

 

An easterly on the back of a northerly has a good chance of keeping a notable cold theme in November.

 

Thinking ahead, we don't normally see truely cold condition set in before christmas, however, our expectations have increased markedly since 2008, on the back of 4 years which have produced early winter cold, most notably in 2010. Last year has brought us back to earth a little, but memories of late Nov 2010 linger long still..

Personally I would prefer an early winter outbreak such as occured in 2008 and 2012 which both delivered a wintry cold start to December, but then followed by the wonderful second half of Dec 2009, rather than 2010 which I always thought was too good to last through winter proper..

 

I'll just be happy though with an average cold spell before christmas with some decent frosty cold conditions..

 

If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

 

 

I think Nov 95 delivered only localised snowfalls to eastern parts, most notably NE Scotland and was a very shortlived affair, whereas Nov 93 produced a pronounced cold spell lasting from about the 18th through to the end of the month, with snow fairly widespread away from the west, more so eastern coastal districts, but even here we had a little snow. It produced some very cold minima and freezing fog. Nov 95 in the main was mild.

 

The following Decembers were very different, Dec 95 soon turned cold with an exceptional cold blast during the last week in the north, whereas Dec 93 stayed mild throughout in the south, less so in the north with a cold snowy second half. Prior to 2010, the three coldest Novembers of the last 30 years i.e. 1985, 1988 and 1993 were all followed by mild/very mild Decembers.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I think Nov 95 delivered only localised snowfalls to eastern parts, most notably NE Scotland and was a very shortlived affair, whereas Nov 93 produced a pronounced cold spell lasting from about the 18th through to the end of the month, with snow fairly widespread away from the west, more so eastern coastal districts, but even here we had a little snow. It produced some very cold minima and freezing fog. Nov 95 in the main was mild.

 

The following Decembers were very different, Dec 95 soon turned cold with an exceptional cold blast during the last week in the north, whereas Dec 93 stayed mild throughout in the south, less so in the north with a cold snowy second half. Prior to 2010, the three coldest Novembers of the last 30 years i.e. 1985, 1988 and 1993 were all followed by mild/very mild Decembers.

 

Yes 93 was a cracker but I remember being a little disappointed (don't know why as it was only November) when we only got a few small falls, I really enjoyed the week before xmas 93 and in between xmas and new year (nothing massive but a good few falls), and fen 94 was a corker (all those events in the midlands), that was a very underrated winter in my opinion. I was also a bit disappointed with 95 Dec because although bitter, the most we had on ground at any one time was an inch and a half, other places got marmalised, that was rectified on the 5th Feb 96 of course when we did get battered.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

If I remember rightly Nov 95 was a decent Easterly, in the midlands we only had dustings and an inch or 2 in places but didn't some places on the East coast get a decent fall?

I'm pretty sure we had a decent fall of snow at some stage in November 95 but it was a blink and you miss it affair.

Mid November 96 delivered two 6 inch falls here which combined, hung around for a few days although I assume our altitude helped.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

To show how cold an easterly can get at the end of November, look at this from 1890

Rrea00218901127.gif

=

1350845502845114.jpg

 

 

That would have knocked the 'tame' in comparison 2010 event into a cocked hat, -17c over a warm sea!!!

 

I'm pretty sure we had a decent fall of snow at some stage in November 95 but it was a blink and you miss it affair.

Mid November 96 delivered two 6 inch falls here which combined, hung around for a few days although I assume our altitude helped.

 

Yes I remember having about 1 and a half inches in Birmingham city centre in that 96 event.

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