Early winter hopes and chat

[RCT]

Had our first frost! Finished work this morning at 06:30 and had to scrape the ice of the car! 

Temp -1 and clear. 

[throwoff]

Temps have certainly dropped since last week.

 

The cold is coming

[snowtimenow]

Fabulous morning here feeling chilly for a change and I'm loving it. Took the dogs out at 6 this morning and it certainly felt much more seasonal. I just hope it stays more like this for the run up to Christmas but from what I've been reading on this forum it could all change again very soon unfortunately but for now I'm going to enjoy this more seasonal weather

[Mountain Snow]

Light dusting of snow on the Helvellyn range this morning. Looked beautiful as they poked up above the fog.

[garbagebags]

♫This Could Be The Start Of Something Big♫  

 

 

Edit: Can someone please move this to the ramping thread or delete it. I've just realised it probably not appropriate here. 

Edited November 4, 2014 by garbagebags

[Yarmy]

Light dusting of snow on the Helvellyn range this morning. Looked beautiful as they poked up above the fog.

 

Sounds magical. Any photos?

 

On the other hand, perhaps someone had to spend 20 seconds scraping their car windows.

[Mark Neal.]

Some snow this morning up in Cairngorm.. :-)

Edited November 4, 2014 by Mark N

[Mark Neal.]

Also to whet the appetite, Snowdonia also has snow this morning! 

[andy989]

Yes yes, was a nice suprise to see snow on Snowdon this morning. 

[andy989]

A frosty bonfire night forecast. Last time I had a frosty bonfire was 09/10. I'll take it as a good omen 

[hillbilly]

A frosty bonfire night forecast. Last time I had a frosty bonfire was 09/10. I'll take it as a good omen 

I went to a bonfire last Saturday and I felt comfortable in just a jumper until it started to rain...and I have never seen before some young lad turned up in shorts and a Tshirt !!!

[feb1991blizzard]

12z CFS run from 3rd Nov showing 2c negative anomaly at 850hpa for Dec,  patience is a virtue, Long range forecast will start to in the words of Mr Murr 'Smell the coffee over the next few weeks.

 

[Snowyowl9]

Coolest day so far at 7.6c.

Early first 4 days of November 2012 was cold even had some snow on the 2nd and 3rd.

[Timmytour]

36 years and counting........ the average sum of the mean monthly CETs from Dec, Jan and Feb is 11.5C (1700-01 through to  2013-14)

The last time we had a winter that registered 4,5C below this average was 1978-9, coming up to 36 years ago. The previous longest time between such winters was 22 years which culminated in the winter of 1916-17.

It's time we had another one! The average wait for such a winter upto and including the winter of 1946-47 from 1700 was just 7 years.....since then we've only had 1962-63 and 1978-79!!

Don't get me wrong....the recent run of 4 out of the last six winters with below the average readings, which bought to an end another record of 12 successive winters of above the average, has been welcome. But we need the Big One to come in!    It's been far too long without one and it's not fair that, for 250 years we would have had 5 of them in the time we've waited since the last time!  

[johnholmes]

Rather frightening when I look at that to see I was alive during 4 of them, 3 I can remember, just a few months old so no recollection.

As a kid 1947 was great, loved it, as someone working 62-63 was enjoyable for the first 2-3 weeks but nothing but a pain after that.

[Weather-history]

 

One winter that pops up that sometimes gets forgotten about is 1928-29. December 1928 wasn't anything special, but Jan 1929 had a CET mean of 1.3C and Feb 1929 was even colder at 0.4C. The period 4th Feb - 5th Mar 1929 averaged -0.2C.

I can't find the netweather article I wrote about this winter but here's the UKWW one

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49348-the-severe-winter-of-1928-29-a-special-report-with-times-articles/

Rather frightening when I look at that to see I was alive during 4 of them, 3 I can remember, just a few months old so no recollection.

As a kid 1947 was great, loved it, as someone working 62-63 was enjoyable for the first 2-3 weeks but nothing but a pain after that.

Here's a thought for you. There have been only 8 sub zero CET Februaries since 1659, yet you would have lived through half of them. 4 since WWII.

[johnholmes]

I can't find the netweather article I wrote about this winter but here's the UKWW one

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49348-the-severe-winter-of-1928-29-a-special-report-with-times-articles/

Here's a thought for you. There have been only 8 sub zero CET Februaries since 1659, yet you would have lived through half of them. 4 since WWII.

 

a rather sobering thought W-h; a somewhat odd statistic to feed into the files of Net Weather perhaps?

[EML Network]

I have a feeling it won't be long before the GFS Ensembles 850 Uppers are going to be posted on here. 

 

As of yet I can see no reason to be posting them, but I just have a sneaky feeling at some point in the next week or so we're going to start seeing some juicy FI charts. 

 

My only worry is the lack of any real cold air to our East, but it is only early November so perhaps I am getting a little ahead of myself 

[Ninman]

I have a feeling it won't be long before the GFS Ensembles 850 Uppers are going to be posted on here. 

 

As of yet I can see no reason to be posting them, but I just have a sneaky feeling at some point in the next week or so we're going to start seeing some juicy FI charts. 

 

My only worry is the lack of any real cold air to our East, but it is only early November so perhaps I am getting a little ahead of myself

Looking at the 6z gfs, there appears to be some attempt at a PV split at 30hpa being modelled at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see if that develops any further.

[Summer Sun]

Accu weather's winter forecast for the UK and Europe

 

Europe Winter Forecast: 'Fantastic' Ski Season for Alps; More Tranquil in UK

 

Fewer Storms for Ireland, United Kingdom and France

 

Another aspect of the upcoming winter season is that large and widespread damaging wind events are expected to be less common than last winter, which featured several noteworthy storms that caused damage from the British Isles into northern Europe.

 

While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures.

 

Fewer storms tracking across the United Kingdom and Ireland into northern Europe will lead to below-normal precipitation overall for the winter season, following the wettest winter on record across the United Kingdom last year.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

Edited November 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snowtimenow]

Accu weather's winter forecast for the UK and Europe

 

Europe Winter Forecast: 'Fantastic' Ski Season for Alps; More Tranquil in UK

 

Fewer Storms for Ireland, United Kingdom and France

 

Another aspect of the upcoming winter season is that large and widespread damaging wind events are expected to be less common than last winter, which featured several noteworthy storms that caused damage from the British Isles into northern Europe.

 

While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures.

 

Fewer storms tracking across the United Kingdom and Ireland into northern Europe will lead to below-normal precipitation overall for the winter season, following the wettest winter on record across the United Kingdom last year.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

 

How did they do with last years forecast?

[radiohead]

How did they do with last years forecast?

 

"Much of Europe will experience drier and warmer-than-average conditions spanning December, January and February."

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

[marksiwnc]

Liam duttons blog on twitter.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/jet-stream-hinting-early-winter-bring/7539

[Yarmy]

Accu weather's winter forecast for the UK and Europe

 

Europe Winter Forecast: 'Fantastic' Ski Season for Alps; More Tranquil in UK

 

Fewer Storms for Ireland, United Kingdom and France

 

Another aspect of the upcoming winter season is that large and widespread damaging wind events are expected to be less common than last winter, which featured several noteworthy storms that caused damage from the British Isles into northern Europe.

 

While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures.

 

Fewer storms tracking across the United Kingdom and Ireland into northern Europe will lead to below-normal precipitation overall for the winter season, following the wettest winter on record across the United Kingdom last year.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

 

You can tell Joe B doesn't work there anymore.

[Lauren]

Temps have certainly taken a dive the last few nights.

 

As long as I can get warm I do love a cold snap.