Early winter hopes and chat

[NorthYorksWeather]

As it is Saturday afternoon and I'm waiting for the washing machine to finish, I watched Joe Bastradi's winter forecast on his website. He is predicting a US winter akin to 1977/78. He suggests that the models are having a difficult time at the moment due to the southern oscillation crashing and an easterly phase of the QBO. For the UK, that winter was very cold and snowy in January and February 1978. Could the same happen in early 2015? Who knows! I'm going to load the tumble dryer.

 

Yes just watched that link, looks positive for our neck of the woods with a negative pressure anomaly over Hudson bay and positive pressure anomolies over Greenland/Iceland and over the poles. Heres the link  http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014

[gsteruk]

Things seems really much more unsettled and wintry alreat this year compared to last, which is great, but even for me its a bit early. Best to get the wild stuff out of the way so we can have some nice calm for December. I want still, cold and snowy, the wind and rain doesn't do it for me I'm afraid

[Methuselah]

I hope that I get to see at least one snowflake by the end of 2014...

[Yarmy]

I remember this time last year there were lots of posts saying it was best to get the wild windy wet stuff out of the way now rather than later. And to be fair it did finally disappear around April time.

[syed2878]

Well lets hope that the wild and wet stuf doesn't last till April this time round. Last winter was mor autumn than winter. Interesting thoughts by RJS over on the seasonal forecast thread sound good though I hope it's going to be nice and snowy winter this1. hopefully things like the strat will play ball this time around and we don't land on the mild side of any blocks if any sets up. Well folks as we just entered gmt just over 7mins ago enjoy your extra hour in bed.

[terrier]

Just watched gavs latest model update for winter and 9 out of the 10 models are going for above average winter again. Not a great outlook for winter at all. Think this opi might be our only hope now.

[Dancerwithwings]

Still quite early, but it might be interesting to see if this develops any further...

 

Possibly the first snowfalls to northern and eastern areas, at the start of November? About nine days out, so a bit out of the reliable zone, but certainly a possibility.

 

 

Ya mentioned a few days ago "Interesting to see if this develops any further..." Certainly developing & Certainly looking interesting :cold:

[stewfox]

Just watched gavs latest model update for winter and 9 out of the 10 models are going for above average winter again. Not a great outlook for winter at all. Think this opi might be our only hope now.

 

'our only hope' ?

 

Come on , show me any long range forecast that's been remotely accurate over a period of time and I'll write winter off as well.

 

Lets write 2014/15 winter off in April 2015 not Oct 2014 ?

Edited October 26, 2014 by stewfox

[Summer Sun]

Latest winter outlook from Gavin Partridge

 

 

Out of the 10 models featured only 1 out of 10 goes for a cold winter which is Jamstec all the rest are showing a mild winter

Edited October 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just watched gavs latest model update for winter and 9 out of the 10 models are going for above average winter again. Not a great outlook for winter at all. Think this opi might be our only hope now.

Terrier you said the same thing last wk. in fact every week , you obviously haven't got a clue how to read signals , stratosphere impact , -QBO , and the fantastic correlation of the OPI ,all the major signals pointing to an interesting winter to say the least .

Computer models have a verification stat that's best left in the cats litter tray .

[Mucka]

Just watched gavs latest model update for winter and 9 out of the 10 models are going for above average winter again. Not a great outlook for winter at all. Think this opi might be our only hope now.

 

Well there is always the hope the seasonal models are wrong and given they are worse than useless on average and flip on a whim it is not a forlorn one.

[snowtimenow]

What was forecast for winter 2009-2010 by the models? how many went for mild ?

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest I'd rather have at least a few long range models on side at this point. It is worth remembering the likes of OPI are even more experimental than the said models people are trashing.

[Fingers]

After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

Clem

[Dancerwithwings]

'our only hope' ?

 

Come on , show me any long range forecast that's been remotely accurate over a period of time and I'll write winter off as well.

 

Absolutely.... Gavin's headlines for the of Winter 2013-2014, Issued on 1st December 2013, Seasonal Forecast... The forecast predicts the possibility of an average to slightly colder than average winter this year and the possibility of it being very dry, too........   So, so glad Gavin is going for mild one this year... This Reverse psychology ain't half catching

Edited October 26, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[jmatt81]

'our only hope' ?

 

Come on , show me any long range forecast that's been remotely accurate over a period of time and I'll write winter off as well.

 

Lets write 2014/15 winter off in April 2015 not Oct 2014 ?

 

Looking at the Met Office's forecast for Winter 2013/14 issued in November 13, you can see how useless these things are

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Its just purely guesswork from the models at this long out IMO. We saw how many of them balls'd up last winter!! 

As long as we can get lowering the heights in the Mediterranean and a more Southerly tracking jet, and in turn, prop the heights up to the North (Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia) then we should be cooking with gas for some cold shots. I would bank on seeing more snow than last winter anyway, thats for sure!

[IDO]

After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

Clem

 

I would not count on sunspot activity working in our favour. Current: 

 

A recent headline: http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/9831/20141024/nasa-notices-largest-sunspot-decades.htm

 

Last year's washout will not happen this year, well at least not for the same reasons, but there are very few positive signals from the LR models, so its a case of fingers crossed.

[Cleeve Hill]

I number of those LRF's just don't look right, and some have changed considerably from 30 days ago. I remember CFS last year was going for a cold winter in NW Europe and how wrong was that. Interesting nonetheless but if the Elnino materialises and we have a -NAO if will be very different to those forecasts. Will beinteresting to see the next forecasts at the end of November.

[stewfox]

Looking at the Met Office's forecast for Winter 2013/14 issued in November 13, you can see how useless these things are

 

Met Office 2013-14.jpgMet Office 2013-14 Temp.jpg

 

I respect any long range forecast and I do believe in terms of trends many of the better researched ones are getting better

 

But a small Island like ours a low going 250 miles further south east can make the difference  between drizzle and 4c and a snow fest at -2c.  A drive to 600ft can also make all the difference.

 

Its why 'the British' are seen to be so obsessed with the weather and why folk in Saudi Arabia are not.

 

Two week forecast Hot and sunny but 'maybe' broken clouds on the 7th Nov. Getting excited about broken clouds two weeks hence I'll stick to ours.

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/saudi-arabia/dammam/ext

Edited October 26, 2014 by stewfox

[Captain Shortwave]

With respect to long range forecast, maybe many should ask those across the pond in the US on how the long range models did. I would expect the complete opposite reaction to here.

A Pacific ridge/US trough is not a particularly good omen for NW Europe unless you can get heights building to the north east of the UK to deflect the strong Atlantic jet south to bring cold in from the east. Simply put a Greenland high was never on last year. A Scandi high was a possibility and in fact we did get one

Trouble was we were just too far west to benefit and in fact resulted in record breaking rainfall as low pressure disrupted over the UK with slow moving fronts carrying heavy rain.

[Eugene]

According to Stan Collymore winter is here, yes he just said that on Talksport, 14C------->   

[Fingers]

I would not count on sunspot activity working in our favour. Current: mdi_sunspots.jpg

A recent headline: http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/9831/20141024/nasa-notices-largest-sunspot-decades.htm

Last year's washout will not happen this year, well at least not for the same reasons, but there are very few positive signals from the LR models, so its a case of fingers crossed.

Agree. Certainly has been an upward tick at the mo. Need it quieten like it did 13/14.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Fingers

[Formula_1_Fan]

Just out of curiosity what is input into the long range models?

At the moment we have seem to have a number of factors hinting at a colder winter or at least factors that make it more of a possibility for us. I understand the OPI won't be factored in but with promising signs from other things such as the SAI, an easterly based QBO, weakish El nino, and perhaps a stratosphere that appears more likely to play ball what are we missing?

I was under the impression the long range models take all of the above into account and going off some of the excellent posts on this forum (which are miles ahead of my level of knowledge), you would expect the models to be hinting at something a bit more wintery. So is there something they take into account that has being missed on the forum?

[Nick L]

According to Stan Collymore winter is here, yes he just said that on Talksport, 14C------->   

 

The bloke is a grade A prat at the best of times.