Early winter hopes and chat

[Nick L]

Rather exited now after seeing a lot of the latest charts roll on December!

 

What latest charts?

[terrier]

Rather exited now after seeing a lot of the latest charts roll on December!

is that the charts that show no northern blocking then? Because all charts I've seen show a westerly regime. Unless your looking at the useless Cfs charts.

[throwoff]

More and more things are clicking into place.

 

You cant trust charts this far in advance, look at the general signs, Northern Hemisphere snow and ice is good, OPI is good.

 

I am not expecting much but we will get some cold and some falling snow I am sure.

[Hocus Pocus]

is that the charts that show no northern blocking then? Because all charts I've seen show a westerly regime. Unless your looking at the useless Cfs charts.

All long range models are about as much use as a chocolate teapot IMO, when they get it right ( which is not very often ) it's more by luck than anything else. 

[Nick L]

All long range models are about as much use as a chocolate teapot IMO, when they get it right ( which is not very often ) it's more by luck than anything else. 

 

Well, no, it's by the complex dynamics put into the models that gets it right.

 

If long range models were useless, then meteorological organisations wouldn't invest huge amounts of money in them and certain businesses wouldn't base decisions on what they're showing.

 

Unless you've got evidence suggesting that they're useless of course in which case please do share it!

Edited October 24, 2014 by Nick L

[feno13]

Well, no, it's by the complex dynamics put into the models that gets it right.

 

If long range models were useless, then meteorological organisations wouldn't invest huge amounts of money in them and certain businesses wouldn't base decisions on what they're showing.

 

Unless you've got evidence suggesting that they're useless of course in which case please do share it!

I hope the highlighted bit applies to terriors post above as well ??

[Hocus Pocus]

Well, no, it's by the complex dynamics put into the models that gets it right.

 

If long range models were useless, then meteorological organisations wouldn't invest huge amounts of money in them and certain businesses wouldn't base decisions on what they're showing.

 

Unless you've got evidence suggesting that they're useless of course in which case please do share it!

The evidence Nick is sort off in the forecasts themselves, hence why the MetO don't issue them publicly anymore. There are far too many variables once you get past the 30 day mark for them to be of much use as a forecasting tool, both the GLOSEA and CFS as well others tend to go along with an inbuilt bias towards certain situations whether that is oceanic or atmospheric based. The OPI looks interesting and appears to have a good correlation but  the data indexes are incomplete over a sufficient  period of time for them to be a reliable tool at this moment in time, this coming winter will be a good test for them in this part of the world.

[Dancerwithwings]

Posted this;  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81288-early-winter-hopes-and-chat/page-39#entry3053382 ..... On how to use the CFS,

shows how the CFS changes everyday when you look at the CFS chart showing (on the bottom of the page) in November and this was around ten days ago.

[EML Network]

You know Winters on it's way when you start getting the.....

 

"CFS show's snowmageddon" type posts, which are usually followed by..

 

"The CFS is rubbish" type posts, which are usually followed by...

 

"Actually Long Range Models aren't all rubbish, otherwise companies wouldn't plough money into them'' type posts, which are often followed by...

 

"Show me a Long Range Model that was right, but was not right just by being lucky" type posts....

 

 

 

And then in the not too distant future thereafter the GFS usually throws up something tasty in the deepest darkest depths of FI and we repeat the steps above, only this time it's in relation to the GFS.

 

At which point the CFS is completely disregarded for the entire Winter..

 

Then not too long afterward the ECM leads us all up the garden path...yes you guessed it we repeat the steps above only this time in relation to the ECM. 

 

Meanwhile the MET Office model chucks the odd wayward run in every once in a while and ...well you get the jist of it. 

 

I love winter on Netweather :-)

Edited October 24, 2014 by EML Network

[feb1991blizzard]

Still quite early, but it might be interesting to see if this develops any further...

 

Not cold enough, 528 line way too far North.

[Summer Sun]

Still quite early, but it might be interesting to see if this develops any further...

 

Wintry mix for northern Scotland

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Not cold enough, 528 line way too far North.

ScottRichards10, did say " to see if this develops any further " >>>>

 

SS are ya feeling alright.....posting a Wintry chart....   wonders never cease

Edited October 24, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

I know, but it is a northerly wind, so something may come out of it, however small it may be...

 

You need one where the Greenland block stabilises properly at this time of the year, strong robust heights and a direct hit long fetch, a glancing blow where you get the curves on the isobars starting to appear near Iceland will fail.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All par for the course at the moment. I'd be more concerned if the NWP was chucking out winter fantasy charts at present....you know what they say about ice in November bearing the weight of a duck! 2010 being a case in point. As long as we quell the threat of the PV getting its act together in any meaningful form, we're doing OK.

It's all about wavelength patterns and at present we're about 6-8 weeks off knowing the prevalent winter one IMO. Until then, it looks to me that we'll remain in a mostly mean westerly regime, perhaps interspersed with UK high interludes (bringing increased risk of frost and fog)

Edited October 24, 2014 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you Scott, this was a similar setup to fair and if I remember rightly, this delivered an inch in Birmingham, and it stuck, im sure this was the one.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I've seen RJS post in the seasonal thread... I have to say I completely agree with the gist of it. I can't really see this winter being up there with the classics, but maybe something for everyone?

[blizzard81]

I've seen RJS post in the seasonal thread... I have to say I completely agree with the gist of it. I can't really see this winter being up there with the classics, but maybe something for everyone?

I may be wrong but I sense a little reverse psychology at the end of your post

[Cheshire Freeze]

I may be wrong but I sense a little reverse psychology at the end of your post

Maybe, but last year really was the year for a potentially severe second half to winter IMO. Unfortunately the strat didn't play ball and the potential was lost.

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe, but last year really was the year for a potentially severe second half to winter IMO. Unfortunately the strat didn't play ball and the potential was lost.

 

I would have said this year has loads more potential than last year ever did, the only thing I can think of that can go wrong this year is we have only just left a solar max, like you I don't think it will be a brutal whole winter but it doesn't need to (87 and 91 the most famous examples), im convinced we will see another 47 or 63 before this decade is out, we need all the variables as they are now (qbo, enso etc), haven't worked out the qbo but 2018 or 2019 could be quite spectacular.

[blizzard81]

Maybe, but last year really was the year for a potentially severe second half to winter IMO. Unfortunately the strat didn't play ball and the potential was lost.

Well, it's the old "if it can go wrong, it most probably will" feeling we all have about the UK winters! The OPI theory really has added a whole new dimension to this particular winter though - very intriguing.

[Dancerwithwings]

Reverse psychology.... to member no'9, It's far too early for this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=9&mode=2&carte=0

 

Edited October 25, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[blizzard81]

Reverse psychology.... to member no'9, It's far too early for this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?

ech=192&code=9&mode=2&carte=0

 

Capture.JPGCapture.JPGCapture.JPG

Yes, too early for that shananigans! I want to see a wet and mildish Nov aka 2009

[Dancerwithwings]

Yes, too early for that shananigans! I want to see a wet and mildish Nov aka 2009

Reverse psychology....It's catching    

[MR EXTREMES]

Reverse psychology.... to member no'9, It's far too early for this

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=9&mode=2&carte=0

 

Capture.JPGCapture.JPGCapture.JPG

yep and the others have thats wedge of heights although not your 09 mega 1050mb still enough to cause a little more of a push on the jet to move a little more south.

although id sit on the fence for awhile yet but finding this winter more exciting to watch build to see if any of the other key factors like the OPI -QBO and see if this also has a knock on effect with the strat.

 

theres so much to be learnt and so much interest in this winter after last years blowtorch fest.

[jmatt81]

As it is Saturday afternoon and I'm waiting for the washing machine to finish, I watched Joe Bastradi's winter forecast on his website. He is predicting a US winter akin to 1977/78. He suggests that the models are having a difficult time at the moment due to the southern oscillation crashing and an easterly phase of the QBO. For the UK, that winter was very cold and snowy in January and February 1978. Could the same happen in early 2015? Who knows! I'm going to load the tumble dryer.