Early winter hopes and chat

[Nick L]

 

So this years October setup is the same as last years????? Far from it Nick L. The CFS went for a lot of blocking around September time last year, then backed off totally into October.

 

I never said it was the same did I?

[LomondSnowstorm]

then it goes against their current model outputs for the winter period, see link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

For what it is worth these signals have been consistent for Nov-Jan for the last 3 issues

 

I don't know if the 'dad's friend at the MO' comment was genuine or tongue in cheek (although the anecdote is so common it's basically a cliché by now) but I wouldn't put much stock in the long range forecast models when they at least appear to contradict most of the background signals, which at the very least are suggestive of a winter with a negative AO which isn't reflected in the long range modelling. 

As someone else on here pointed out, GloSea4 came up with a high pressure dominated winter for NW Europe last October, while their miss in October 2009 (although admittedly there have been significant upgrades since then) was something else:

 

That's not to say that I think we should totally discount long range models, just that they're certainly not the be all and end all by any means.

[Gael_Force]

The Chinese model has just updated - not offering anything to get excited about either. Completely different in heights, though.

 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/en_cs.php

[Lauren]

Remind me, because I am pretty sure this time last year we were in a similar guesstimate for winter? Or was that the year before?

[carinthian]

Our agency continues to impress on a 60% chance of well above average temps Oct/Nov/Dec , which is a very high percentage and only 20% for colder than average. This is for Central Europe. Pressed further, high pressure likely to be dominant  in this location, with westerly flow over NW Europe. Fair assumption that rainfall totals will be lower this first part of the winter season generally across Europe including the British Isles. The models used for winter forecast have a high level of uncertainty but seem to favour a colder January with more Arctic incurrsions than last year. Draw your on conclusions from that, but from our point of view  looks like a slow start to the ski-ing season over The Eastern Alps. One thing we do not want is Euro High to sit in residence for weeks on end, which would be no good for a snowy European winter. Still I sit out on this one, but synoptics to my eye look different to last year so far. Too far to call just yet.

 C

[MPG]

Our agency continues to impress on a 60% chance of well above average temps Oct/Nov/Dec , which is a very high percentage and only 20% for colder than average. This is for Central Europe. Pressed further, high pressure likely to be dominant  in this location, with westerly flow over NW Europe. Fair assumption that rainfall totals will be lower this first part of the winter season generally across Europe including the British Isles. The models used for winter forecast have a high level of uncertainty but seem to favour a colder January with more Arctic incurrsions than last year. Draw your on conclusions from that, but from our point of view  looks like a slow start to the ski-ing season over The Eastern Alps. One thing we do not want is Euro High to sit in residence for weeks on end, which would be no good for a snowy European winter. Still I sit out on this one, but synoptics to my eye look different to last year so far. Too far to call just yet.

 C

I remember your model last winter was continually going for a change from a westerly flow and rain to a cold outbreak which never materialised.

[carinthian]

I remember your model last winter was continually going for a change from a westerly flow and rain to a cold outbreak which never materialised.

Yep the bogus Easterly wrong footed quite a few forecasts at home as well. We actually did well with record snowfall in our own forecast perimeters.

[Jackfrost]

I've been a member of the Net-Weather since its early days and never fail to get drawn into the hype, excitement and speculation on the coming winter in October.

 

While I've been indulging in reports, pictures and videos of the glories of winters past, I simply see little to get excited about regarding winter 2014-15. I hope I'm proven spectacularly wrong, but my gut instinct goes with a record-breaking mild season.

[Barry12]

I've been a member of the Net-Weather since its early days and never fail to get drawn into the hype, excitement and speculation on the coming winter in October.

 

While I've been indulging in reports, pictures and videos of the glories of winters past, I simply see little to get excited about regarding winter 2014-15. I hope I'm proven spectacularly wrong, but my gut instinct goes with a record-breaking mild season.

 

It goes both ways though, it's only October so you shouldn't be drawn into the hype and excitement, but it's only October so how can you 'see' little to get excited about. What are you seeing? if it's a gut feeling, then it's no better than someones gut feeling it will be the coldest winter on record.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Barry95

[johnholmes]

No one no matter how brilliant a scientist can predict 3 months in advance. All we have at the moment from a known scientific viewpoint are the models being shown, as with UK Met, that suggest no deep cold at any stage. The other side is the apparent links with northern Eurasian snow cover OPI etc that suggest otherwise.

Being realistic, who knows, by the 1 March we will all know. For the time being it gives everyone an outlet for their views, cold or mild, in between, a bit of both or don't know-no one can ridicule anyone else or any model at this time in October.

[carinthian]

No one no matter how brilliant a scientist can predict 3 months in advance. All we have at the moment from a known scientific viewpoint are the models being shown, as with UK Met, that suggest no deep cold at any stage. The other side is the apparent links with northern Eurasian snow cover OPI etc that suggest otherwise.

Being realistic, who knows, by the 1 March we will all know. For the time being it gives everyone an outlet for their views, cold or mild, in between, a bit of both or don't know-no one can ridicule anyone else or any model at this time in October.

Yep, John, a bit long in the tooth having seen many winter past yourself ! Before powerful computers and long range predictions, it was the eye on the present day synoptic charts with DWR before a trend could be detected. The big freeze of 62/63 was only picked up days before Christmas and not October. The big snowstorms from Mid -February 1947 developed from a fairly mild 8 weeks prior to that prolonged Easterly. So overall, no one really knows, even with all the latest in- puts , fine mesh models. The fun is trying to predict winter this far out, in reality, many in the British Isles turn out mild , but all ways the chance of the big one. That's what keeps us interested.

[cyclonic happiness]

I can never understand why people get berated by others who get excited about the coming winter.

 

I don't think I'd be wrong if I said that 'EVERYONE' gets excited come november.

 

Some may be very good at meteorology, some may be just keen amateurs, some may just love snow and cold and pop onto here to ask if it's going to snow on a certain day 3 months away.

 

I think we should ramp and spout as much enthusiasm as we possibly can, because, if it's as mild and boring as most people on here seem to think, ramping and spouting rubbish is the best chance we have of keeping the torch of enthusiasm burning. :-) 

[Nick L]

I can never understand why people get berated by others who get excited about the coming winter.

 

I don't think I'd be wrong if I said that 'EVERYONE' gets excited come november.

 

Some may be very good at meteorology, some may be just keen amateurs, some may just love snow and cold and pop onto here to ask if it's going to snow on a certain day 3 months away.

 

I think we should ramp and spout as much enthusiasm as we possibly can, because, if it's as mild and boring as most people on here seem to think, ramping and spouting rubbish is the best chance we have of keeping the torch of enthusiasm burning. :-) 

 

To be fair, I don't think anyone has seriously suggested that this winter is going to be mild. I was just attempting to put a bit of caution on the current optimism!

[cyclonic happiness]

To be fair, I don't think anyone has seriously suggested that this winter is going to be mild. I was just attempting to put a bit of caution on the current optimism!

Fair enough :-p

[lassie23]

Aim low and avoid disappointment!

[Liam J]

I really hope this winter turns out to be colder than average with plenty of snowfall! I'd like to see the odd Atlantic storm being a severe weather fan though, love some wild weather over winter! Storm force winds and snow anyone?

 

As the old saying goes, expect nothing and you'll never be disappointed... 

[Chris K]

Aim low and avoid disappointment!

 

After last winter...one morning of frost on my car would be an improvement   

Edited October 15, 2014 by Chris K

[lassie23]

After last winter...one morning of frost on my car would be an improvement   

I'm hoping for a five minute sleety shower, that would also be an improvement on last winter!

[Dancerwithwings]

Come on you fellow coldies, you know it will happen!...... The Question is when ?....
 

[gottolovethisweather]

Aim low and avoid disappointment!

 

Thanks Lassie and whilst I don't agree with one-liners, yours is as good a statement as anyones. I would add that hype rarely equals reality, so let's keep things civil and keep those feet of ours firmly on the ground.

 

For coldies like me, there is plenty to cheer about though, as alluded to in the differing longer-term threads. OPI indexes are favourable, the PV is not in the same state as other years at this juncture. So to me, its how one chooses to interpret things and who one chooses to listen to. This will determine whether your own personal viewpoint differs to those of others and how much faith you should have in your own thoughts about the Winter season (still some six weeks away).

 

In netweather towers we have a most informative bunch and I sure have learnt a lot over the years, by listening to some of the best amateur weather enthusiasts in the business.

 

Watch this space for ongoing updates from all and sundry, but chill out before the true chill descends upon these isles.

[MP-R]

Let's rest assured by the fact that 2/3 of any weather we could have in winter would be cold. Pretty much anything from between the NW and S-SE would deliver cold to the UK in one way or another, sometimes even from the W via a returning airmass such as what happened a lot last winter. Mild weather is only evident from between S and W-NW. So as long as we don't have a predominant SW-NE titled jet through the winter, that would be a very good start.

[lassie23]

I think last winter taught everyone a lot. Those who want to try a genuine stab at long range forecasting would have found last winter's surprising events very useful, those who just want to sell forecasts on the net, would have learned nothing. Low solar activity is not the only thing needed for a cold winter James madden Sure it helps! I am hoping for lengthy cold spells and enough snow so I can dust down the snow shovel!

Edited October 16, 2014 by lassie23

[snowtimenow]

Aim low and avoid disappointment!

Tried that last year.... didn't work

[stewfox]

It goes both ways though, it's only October so you shouldn't be drawn into the hype and excitement, but it's only October so how can you 'see' little to get excited about. What are you seeing? if it's a gut feeling, then it's no better than someones gut feeling it will be the coldest winter on record.

 

My gut feeling is nearly always wrong. So if I say its going to be a incredibly mild December with a CET of 7c I should be wrong

 

Probably end up at 8c 

[Hotspur62]

Think this winter is shaping up to be a difficult one to call.Have been an avid follower of OPI forum for last 2 weeks and from a "coldies" pov this looks encouraging. Then you have snow advancement  Westward from Siberia at high levels and the Sun being relatively quiet and continuing to become quieter from a sunspot perspective and  these indicators provide some evidence that we may be in for a colder than average winter.On top of that there being a weak to moderate El Nino and things look better still for our part of the world. But then you have certain models in their LRFs going for above average temps for DJF that puts a dampner on things. Like others have said before (and with far more knowledge than I will ever have!!) only time will tell and this time next month we will have a better handle on things. So in the meantime just enjoy all the evidence gathering and different aspects/indicators that will help give the experts a chance in trying to explain what way the UK winter of 2014-15 will go.

 

Enjoy the Ride!!