Early winter hopes and chat

[Paul]

Just put together a blog entry on this latest cold winter headline:

 

Coldest winter in a century? Don't bet on it..

 

I know Jo is also blogging her views about it today too - will share the link to that as soon as it's ready!

[Paul]

And here's Jo's update:

Where's my 100 days of snow?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Reading the Express article note the quote that December is showing conflicting signs so there may be milder and stormier conditions....yet the rest of winter shows none?  hmmmmmm  Madden wobbling?

 

Netweather said: “Northern blocking is still shown to be in place into December, and that equates to forecast temperatures that are close to or slightly below-average across the UK.â€

 

Did you say that? 

 

BFTP

Edited October 10, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just to add to what Roger is saying on OPI thread, my thoughts re the jetstream being more favourable are that a basic pattern over North America like last year is anticipated but with a more -ve AO signature.  I like the 1977 composite as a general idea that Steve MURR posted.  It opens oppotunities for both arctic and tropical maritime incursions to influence and at times take hold of the winter.

 

BFTP   

[Paul]

Reading the Express article note the quote that December is showing conflicting signs so there may be milder and stormier conditions....yet the rest of winter shows none?  hmmmmmm

 

Netweather said: “Northern blocking is still shown to be in place into December, and that equates to forecast temperatures that are close to or slightly below-average across the UK.”

 

Did you say that? 

 

BFTP

 

It's lifted from here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers Paul.

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

 

We also have a supportive easterly QBO this winter. 

 

BFTP or anyone else for that matter. I was trying to improve my knowledge and looked up the QBO on Wiki, it seems to imply that an Easterly QBO is bad for North West European cold winters?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

 

 

Is there something amiss here?

[phil nw.]

BFTP or anyone else for that matter. I was trying to improve my knowledge and looked up the QBO on Wiki, it seems to imply that an Easterly QBO is bad for North West European cold winters?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

 

 

Is there something amiss here?

They use the term westward and eastward which is confusing MS.

Westward is going west ie flowing from the east so negative or East QBO is how i understood it.Checked and link here-

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/westward

 

so would ring true for eastwards, ie,westerly flow or positive QBO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its quirky explanation I think MS

 

Westward QBO = Easterly QBO

Eastward QBO = Westerly QBO

 

Example of quirkiness - Easterly winds move in a westward direction [from east to west]. westerly winds move in eastward direction [from west to east.]

 

Easterly or -ve QBO are defo better for blocking chances

 

Hope that helps

 

BFTP

Edited October 10, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Lauren]

Er.....so in short, no one knows and it's too early to make any reliable predictions?

 

Well that's simply not good enough!

 

 

Still the reality of the situation shan't stop the Express from scaremongering.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Er.....so in short, no one knows and it's too early to make any reliable predictions?

 

Well that's simply not good enough!

 

 

Still the reality of the situation shan't stop the Express from scaremongering.

 

 

Nah, you'll be stranded in blizzard conditions this winter Lauren

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

Cheers guys.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the thought's from WSI on the rest of Autumn and Winter from the September update, the October update will be issued later this month and will cover the first 2 months of winter

 

WSI: Widespread Above-Normal Temperatures to Continue Through Autumn

 

Evidence Mounting for Pattern Change toward Colder Weather in Late Winter

 

Andover, MA, 22 September 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, eastern and central mainland Europe and the UK for the October-December period, with below-normal temperatures confined to parts of Iberia and southern France.

According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The remains of Hurricane Edouard have helped to trigger a temporary pattern change towards much cooler temperatures across much of Europe this week. However, the bulk of the evidence suggests a return to the pattern of widespread above-normal temperatures that has been common for much of the past year. Our latest forecast for October reflects this idea, with below-normal temperatures forecasted to be confined to the far north and west of Europe as high pressure remains in control over central and southern Europe. Looking ahead towards winter, the bulk of the evidence suggests that there may be significant cold risk late in the winter, as the combination of various atmospheric/oceanic drivers (including El Nino) appear to be in consensus. On the other hand, the climate models are quite strongly suggesting another mild winter, so there is still significant uncertainty for the upcoming winter.â€

In October, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern Norway
UK – Warmer than normal south, cooler north
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia/southern France

In December, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia/southern France

 

http://wsi.com/fe17a4c7-4fc8-4bb8-b70d-fb3049307ca9/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Edited October 11, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Froze were the Days]

WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

[Polarlow]

Don't know much about this site, but heres the link, on the Gulf stream anomaly !!!

http://www.thebigwobble.org/2014/10/the-day-aftertomorrow-is-gulf-stream.html?utm_source=BP_recent

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

Generally what we get every year though and as common as the coldest winter in 1 trillion years call by Madden.

 

BFTP

[snowtimenow]

WSI weren't to far off the money last winter - predicting a strong Polar vortex and warmest months of the winter being January and February, yet another forecast heading towards possibly another mild/mildish one.

NOOOOOOOOOoooooooo!!!!  

[Gael_Force]

So many of these forecasts are predicated on a continuing/strengthening Nino during the winter months - the amount of land and SST positive anomalies are huge.

 

 

The latest run of the CFS ENSO predictions might just be showing that the forecasts will need to be re-evaluated.

 

 

 

[DELETED]

lol people seem to change there mind overnight.

[Neilsouth]

Generally what we get every year though and as common as the coldest winter in 1 trillion years call by Madden.

 

BFTP

 

Easier to forecast mild/warm than it is a freezing cold winter, that's for sure

[andy989]

Dont know if this is the right thread for this, or if it makes sense at all. There is a huge area of cold ocean temperatures in the  Atlantic which seems to have disrupted the gulf stream. See link

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-23.58,42.01,671 

I'm not the most meteorological literate person by a long stretch, but could this be a switch to a cooler Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation? It is to my understanding also that even during a warm phase Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation, it can temporarily switch to a cold one, see link.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg

As you can see, the cooler phases coincide with the cold winter events here in the UK. You can see on the graph, a dip to a cool phase during 2010, the 60's, mid 40's and other years. 

If this is nonsense, then mods feel free to delete. 

 

[Hocus Pocus]

 

Dont know if this is the right thread for this, or if it makes sense at all. There is a huge area of cold ocean temperatures in the  Atlantic which seems to have disrupted the gulf stream. See link

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-23.58,42.01,671 

I'm not the most meteorological literate person by a long stretch, but could this be a switch to a cooler Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation? It is to my understanding also that even during a warm phase Atlantic mutlidecadal oscillation, it can temporarily switch to a cold one, see link.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg

As you can see, the cooler phases coincide with the cold winter events here in the UK. You can see on the graph, a dip to a cool phase during 2010, the 60's, mid 40's and other years. 

If this is nonsense, then mods feel free to delete. 

 

 

I think it's another decade at least before the AMO is due to switch to it's negative phase.

[terrier]

Must admit that isn't a great start to winter from the wsi update and seems to go along with the mets glosea model. Let's hope next update is abit better for cold

[Hocus Pocus]

Must admit that isn't a great start to winter from the wsi update and seems to go along with the mets glosea model. Let's hope next update is abit better for cold

The WSI update was from September as was the MetO, there's an awful long way to go yet before any model latches onto any particular strong signal let alone the full three months of winter.

[andy989]

I think it's another decade at least before the AMO is due to switch to it's negative phase.

Thankyou, any thoughts on this cold area? Every action has a reaction and all.