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Early winter hopes and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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SnowObsessor90 Apprentice

SnowObsessor90

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

What I'd ideally want is November/December 2010 type synoptics even though I'm 99.9% sure that it's not going to happen, btw are the MOD and Regional discussion threads from that period still archived somewhere? as I'd really love to have a look at them :)

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Norwegian Met puts Spitzbergen into the deep freezer this time next week with falling temperatures possibly as low as -18C by Thursday. The cold plunge could affect parts of Lapland and the White Sea for a time.

 C

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted

Getting ready for winter, we've updated our snow radar app for Android - you can get it here (free)

 

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.netweather.snowradar

Paul thanks for that. Is it working mine only shows rain, (I know, I'll grab my coat now), thanks anyway, hope to get some use this year!

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tcc Contributor

tcc

Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
Posted

The polar vortex ( early season ) in exactly the wrong place ... of the right place as the case may be!!!!!!

 

Wrong place as in bad for snowy prospects this winter?

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Wrong place as in bad for snowy prospects this winter?

 

Nope - "right" place in terms of building up a negative OPI. The GFS this morning has a lot of snow forecast over the Asian continent. I'm still hazy on just how far south this need to fall - but to my untrained eye it seems to be an active low pressure pattern pushing quite a good way south.

 

So wrong = right.... if you want cold. And if you believe in the OPI research. Go check out the thread. The data as presented is quite illuminating....

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)

What is also interesting, scanning the data today, is just how obvious the disaster of last year now looks with the benefit of hindsight. We all know it was a westerly QBO... but Dec - Feb saw a spike in solar activity (a spike that has thankfully diminished) and also October 2013 produced poor snow cover over Asia and a high OPI. We all know what happened to the temperature of the vortex also. Put these 3 indicators together and it screams mobile and wet.

 

I know there are other indicators too that are important - but going way back to the Presutti days snow cover and solar activity have always been touted by many as important drivers. Now we know a bit more about the stratosphere and might also be on the brink of confirming the Italian OPI research. Happy days for winter forecasters.

 

Sticking my neck out a bit - and very early at that - the indicators for the coming winter look very different. A cold winter is possible I think.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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tcc Contributor

tcc

Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
Posted

Nope - "right" place in terms of building up a negative OPI. The GFS this morning has a lot of snow forecast over the Asian continent. I'm still hazy on just how far south this need to fall - but to my untrained eye it seems to be an active low pressure pattern pushing quite a good way south.

 

So wrong = right.... if you want cold. And if you believe in the OPI research. Go check out the thread. The data as presented is quite illuminating....

Cheers CH, yes I've had a read of that and it is very interesting albeit too early to put too much confidence in it.

 

Another indicator I've read about is to do with the Strat Temp over mid and Eastern Asia in November? Still early days on that particular correlation as well!

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

Norwegian Met puts Spitzbergen into the deep freezer this time next week with falling temperatures possibly as low as -18C by Thursday. The cold plunge could affect parts of Lapland and the White Sea for a time.

 C

 

There's a 360 degree webcam here for the interested:

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

There's a 360 degree webcam here for the interested:

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

 

What a beautiful place!

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

There's a 360 degree webcam here for the interested:

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

Yes, its a great webcam. Some good shots presently whilst there some remaining daylight.

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

What a beautiful place!

 

What a beautiful place!

Great pictures today RD. Not very often you can see the waters of The Adentfjorden inlet starting to freeze over. Usually too dark. Looks like winter is arriving early up there this year.

c

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Yes, its a great webcam. Some good shots presently whilst there some remaining daylight.

Thanks for that C.I have bookmarked the link.

It looks lovely in the setting sun with snow and ice just forming now.

My wife and I were up there in July 2011 on an Arctic cruise we couldn't, dock at Longbyern because of ice floes still in the inlet.

A wild and beautiful area though.

Hopefully we can get a taste of those scenes in Europe this Winter.

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

What a beautiful place!

Yes and not an Aldi or Tesco Express to be seen for miles.........bliss!

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Thanks for that C.I have bookmarked the link.

It looks lovely in the setting sun with snow and ice just forming now.

My wife and I were up there in July 2011 on an Arctic cruise we couldn't, dock at Longbyern because of ice floes still in the inlet.

A wild and beautiful area though.

Hopefully we can get a taste of those scenes in Europe this Winter.

Yes Phil, wild and beautiful as you say. I was lucky enough to spend a month up there some decades ago ( ice mapping ) Very unlikely to go back again but nice to have such a good cam shot every 15 mins. Just pleased its administrated by The Norwegians, who preside over everything there and are very careful about low pollution and disturbance of nature. Glad its not in Russian hands, yet !

 c

 C

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Yes Phil, wild and beautiful as you say. I was lucky enough to spend a month up there some decades ago ( ice mapping ) Very unlikely to go back again but nice to have such a good cam shot every 15 mins. Just pleased its administrated by The Norwegians, who preside over everything there and are very careful about low pollution and disturbance of nature. Glad its not in Russian hands, yet !

 c

 EC

Yes indeed.Let,s enjoy those views whilst we can,before the daylight goes altogether.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Yes and not an Aldi or Tesco Express to be seen for miles.........bliss!

 

LOL It has a stark beauty but would I want to live there?

Nope!

 

Fantastic webcam though and I was completely mesmerised by the stunning scenery.

Edited by Mucka
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Dusting of snow @ the top of Tower Ridge on my day off http://alanhalewood.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/sno-on-ben-nevis-my-day-off.html â€¦

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

What is also interesting, scanning the data today, is just how obvious the disaster of last year now looks with the benefit of hindsight. We all know it was a westerly QBO... but Dec - Feb saw a spike in solar activity (a spike that has thankfully diminished) and also October 2013 produced poor snow cover over Asia and a high OPI. We all know what happened to the temperature of the vortex also. Put these 3 indicators together and it screams mobile and wet.

 

I know there are other indicators too that are important - but going way back to the Presutti days snow cover and solar activity have always been touted by many as important drivers. Now we know a bit more about the stratosphere and might also be on the brink of confirming the Italian OPI research. Happy days for winter forecasters.

 

Sticking my neck out a bit - and very early at that - the indicators for the coming winter look very different. A cold winter is possible I think.

Indeed CH.  I have already suggested that my winter outlook will probably target a sudden cold early start to winter and a pronounced blocked and cold late winter delaying the onset of Spring.  I noticed last year during the summer we had a very unusual spike in warmth of the North Pacific, on the only very few previous occasions we had such an anomaly the immediate following winter so an extra stormy Atlantic driven winter...difference being last winter were the storms tracking a touch further south thus mainland UK experienced direct storm hits rather than the west and NW taking brunt.  This IMO is due to the ongoing solar driven southward shift of the Jetstream, which is here to stay for sometime.   However, what I noticed was that the following on winters displayed a character of plenty of HLB particularly early and even more so late winter.

 

We also have a supportive easterly QBO this winter. 

 

These along with the overall solar state [we're heading towards a deep minima and have already entered the long-term cycle] I already think we will see the OPI and November index 'supportive' of HLB prevalence......will it be any good for the UK?

 

BFTP

I already believe as with the Jetstream generally further south any HLB is more likely IMO to affect us. 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Indeed CH.  I have already suggested that my winter outlook will probably target a sudden cold early start to winter and a pronounced blocked and cold late winter delaying the onset of Spring.  I noticed last year during the summer we had a very unusual spike in warmth of the North Pacific, on the only very few previous occasions we had such an anomaly the immediate following winter so an extra stormy Atlantic driven winter...difference being last winter were the storms tracking a touch further south thus mainland UK experienced direct storm hits rather than the west and NW taking brunt.  This IMO is due to the ongoing solar driven southward shift of the Jetstream, which is here to stay for sometime.   However, what I noticed was that the following on winters displayed a character of plenty of HLB particularly early and even more so late winter.

 

We also have a supportive easterly QBO this winter.

 

These along with the overall solar state [we're heading towards a deep minima and have already entered the long-term cycle] I already think we will see the OPI and November index 'supportive' of HLB prevalence......will it be any good for the UK?

 

BFTP

I already believe

 

Indeed CH.  I have already suggested that my winter outlook will probably target a sudden cold early start to winter and a pronounced blocked and cold late winter delaying the onset of Spring.  I noticed last year during the summer we had a very unusual spike in warmth of the North Pacific, on the only very few previous occasions we had such an anomaly the immediate following winter so an extra stormy Atlantic driven winter...difference being last winter were the storms tracking a touch further south thus mainland UK experienced direct storm hits rather than the west and NW taking brunt.  This IMO is due to the ongoing solar driven southward shift of the Jetstream, which is here to stay for sometime.   However, what I noticed was that the following on winters displayed a character of plenty of HLB particularly early and even more so late winter.

 

We also have a supportive easterly QBO this winter.

 

These along with the overall solar state [we're heading towards a deep minima and have already entered the long-term cycle] I already think we will see the OPI and November index 'supportive' of HLB prevalence......will it be any good for the UK?

 

BFTP

I already believe

 

Agree with most of what you say but i am a bit concerned that a burst of solar activity could scupper the winter, i think generally we are heading into a little ice age and we will get another 47/63 before this decade is out but not so sure it will be this year, if we had zero sunspot number this winter then it would be a near certainty that we would have a belting winter.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Agree with most of what you say but i am a bit concerned that a burst of solar activity could scupper the winter, i think generally we are heading into a little ice age and we will get another 47/63 before this decade is out but not so sure it will be this year, if we had zero sunspot number this winter then it would be a near certainty that we would have a belting winter.

Bearing in mind we are at cycle 24 maxima/peak....its low.  62/3 was extremely unique and I'm not chasing one of them even over next decade.....

I certainly see quite a start to winter with a strong change to very cold conditions late Nov into December.  The idea would then be an ease off Jan into Feb with late Feb and March returning cold

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Darren Howell Fagan Newbie

Darren Howell Fagan

Posted
Posted

I can't really put my finger on why I think it's going to be a helping winter in the UK just have a awful feeling were in for a once in a lifetime sub zero big freeze I really think a bad winter with lots of heavy snow would bring the UK to its knees it's had to many mild winters and we all expect the same again big mistake were due something if not this winter very soon

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