Early winter hopes and chat

[snowking]

How many inches is that?

That's approximately 1' 8" or 20 inches

[lassie23]

That's approximately 1' 8" or 20 inches

Wow! Thanks, that is an insane amount of snow!

[blizzard81]

I remember the brilliant GP stating that if the NAO was positive in October then the opposite would occur during the Winter - negative NAO and vice versa. This is obviously not fool proof but I distinctly remember him saying that there was a big correlation between the October NAO and the opposite occurring during the following winter. Does anybody else remember him saying this?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I want to see snow so deep it comes up to my knees, the type of depth that buries hedges.....and not just over elevated ground (like March 2013). You may laugh considering I live at such a low elevation but the historical records suggest that we have had snow that deep even here before. So it is possible.

 

The maximum snow depth I've ever encountered is about 10cm.

 

At the end of December 1962, Keele uni had 45cm of level snow, even Manchester City Centre had 15cm of snow lying. There were drifts 15 feet deep in some places of the west. Imagine that!

Hi Aaron

I remember well the great winters of 78/9  81/2, 84/5, 85/6, 86/7 ...for Swansea at least.  We had amazing snowdepths and longevity.  Dec 81 my sister was 14 months, we dug a pathway to our shed.  The snowdepth was 'level' with her head ...and the snowdrifts in 86 and 87 were just stunning.  I'm plumping for quite some December this year....

 

 

BFTP 

[Summer Sun]

I remember the brilliant GP stating that if the NAO was positive in October then the opposite would occur during the Winter - negative NAO and vice versa. This is obviously not fool proof but I distinctly remember him saying that there was a big correlation between the October NAO and the opposite occurring during the following winter. Does anybody else remember him saying this?

 

Its not something I personally saw GP write but its something we can look at over the coming weeks and months

[Fingers]

That doesn't bode too well for us at the moment if that's correct with both the AO and the NAO being very negative at present and forecast to be so at least until mid month.

[Jax]

Kris works in old money like I do

[Andy_]

In December 2010 we had around 50cm of snow here. It was insane.

 

I had 30cm (1 ft) in my back garden level snow then near the north sea coast and without much elevation, incredible and I'm not sure I'll ever see that much again round these parts!

 

Keeping last Winter in mind i'd be happy with 1cm this year 

[Don]

Its not something I personally saw GP write but its something we can look at over the coming weeks and months

 

I don't remember GP saying this either.  However, I have heard that northern blocking during October does not bode well for a cold blocked Winter to follow.  This Autumn so far has reminded me of many of those during the 1997-2007 period.  Bearing this part of the jigsaw in mind does not give me much confidence of a cold Winter at the moment.  I also remember reading an article from the Met Office that warm/dry Octobers can increase the chance of cold weather during the following Winter, particularly in February.

Edited October 4, 2014 by Don

[summer blizzard]

All very complicated but yes, there is a correlation. If October records an AO value in excess of +0.7 then statistically the winter records an AO value in excess of -0.7. But, there's no telling whether thats from one month or not. It should be noted however that 09 recorded a record -AO October and then the record -AO winter.

 

Cohen has about a 0.5 correlation with the winter AO.

[neige57]

I am absolutely in total désacord with all the messages I've read. There is absolutely no but then absolutely no correlation between the NAO / AO in October and the following winter. I do not understand how anyone can believe these things the. In this case, make a chart going back to 1950 (since the NAO goes back to 1950) and you will see that it does not work. 

 

Some past examples: 

 

October 2000: NAO + next winter neutral NAO 

October 2001: Neutral following winter NAO: NAO + 

October 2002: NAO- following winter NAO neutral 

October 2003: NAO- following winter NAO neutral 

October 2004: NAO- next Winter: NAO + 

October 2005: NAO- next Winter: NAO- 

October 2006: NAO - next Winter: NAO + 

October 2007: NAO + Next Winter: NAO + 

October 2008: neutral NAO following winter NAO neutral 

October 2009: NAO - next winter NAO- 

October 2010: NAO - next winter NAO- 

October 2011: NAO + following winter NAO + 

October 2012: NAO- following winter NAO neutral 

October 2013: NAO - next winter NAO + 

 

just by going up since 2000, we see that it did not work this theory, or even the hot dry October and cold winter followed theory

 

And I've never seen GP utter a word on the NAO in October

Edited October 4, 2014 by neige57

[blizzard81]

I am absolutely in total désacord with all the messages I've read. There is absolutely no but then absolutely no correlation between the NAO / AO in October and the following winter. I do not understand how anyone can believe these things the. In this case, make a chart going back to 1950 (since the NAO goes back to 1950) and you will see that it does not work.

Some past examples:

October 2000: NAO + next winter neutral NAO

October 2001: Neutral following winter NAO: NAO +

October 2002: NAO- following winter NAO neutral

October 2003: NAO- following winter NAO neutral

October 2004: NAO- next Winter: NAO +

October 2005: NAO- next Winter: NAO-

October 2006: NAO - next Winter: NAO +

October 2007: NAO + Next Winter: NAO +

October 2008: neutral NAO following winter NAO neutral

October 2009: NAO - next winter NAO-

October 2010: NAO - next winter NAO-

October 2011: NAO + following winter NAO +

October 2012: NAO- following winter NAO neutral

October 2013: NAO - next winter NAO +

just by going up since 2000, we see that it did not work this theory, or even the hot dry October and cold winter followed theory

And I've never seen GP utter a word on the NAO in October

For Pete's sake calm down!

This is a weather forum where people can discuss all aspects of mother nature. I have read your very in depth post and like you have implied, it leaves more questions than answers. However, I am certain GP did mention this "POSSIBLE" correlation between the October NAO and the proceeding winter NAO being the opposite.

Edited October 4, 2014 by blizzard81

[gsteruk]

Yeah keep it calm, it's a weather forum - not a place for twisted knickers! Agree or disagree with whatever you like, no need to be so precious. Peace!

[Mair Snaw]

Morning all.....first frost of Autumn for me this morning...nice to see after such a long absence...looks like a real mixed bag across the UK during the next week but nice to see a change to something more seasonal after what seemed to be weeks and weeks of nothing weather....on a side note i currently live at 200m asl but the garden is too small have found a nice house not too far away at 365m asl what do you guys think i should do...that extra 165m could come in useful during winter....ive not told the wife its higher as she hates the snow....

[Polar Maritime]

Where about's Big Snow, Yes that extra height would certainly help.. You should of stopped up the road in Hartington 

[Mair Snaw]

Where about's Big Snow, Yes that extra height would certainly help.. You should of stopped up the road in Hartington 

Chelmorton Buxton....365m asl should just about do it i reckon....Leaving Brassington was a big mistake i need more elevation again...its either that or a few hundred miles north....lol

[lassie23]

Chelmorton Buxton....365m asl should just about do it i reckon....Leaving Brassington was a big mistake i need more elevation again...its either that or a few hundred miles north....lol

How about the Highlands?

[iand61]

Morning all.....first frost of Autumn for me this morning...nice to see after such a long absence...looks like a real mixed bag across the UK during the next week but nice to see a change to something more seasonal after what seemed to be weeks and weeks of nothing weather....on a side note i currently live at 200m asl but the garden is too small have found a nice house not too far away at 365m asl what do you guys think i should do...that extra 165m could come in useful during winter....ive not told the wife its higher as she hates the snow....

Yeah when looking for property it's all about altitude, altitude, altitude.

Other matters are secondary.

[Mair Snaw]

How about the Highlands?

We have had that conversation already...i lost...still working on it tho and i would go at the drop of a hat....

[lassie23]

We have had that conversation already...i lost...still working on it tho and i would go at the drop of a hat....

guaranteed some snow up there! :cold:

[Jax]

Winter must be coming! (twisted knickers )

[Summer Sun]

Latest winter update from Gavin Partridge

 

[summer blizzard]

Does the new house have a lamppost. Is it closer to the coast.

[phil nw.]

I don't believe we can take any guidance for Winter by seeing highs over the Arctic,not at this early stage anyway.

The cooling of the upper atmosphere has only just got underway and the PV at an early stage of formation.

Meaningful monitoring of the stratosphere will begin towards month end and I think it,s really into November where we can start to detect trends in the probable profile/strength of the PV.

The point being Arctic blocking now can quickly disappear by November.

[Cloud 10]

Speaking of Arctic blocking,anyone have any theories for the very sharp negative plunge in the AO which is imminent?