Early winter hopes and chat

[BlueHedgehog074]

Generally agree. I think we have the right to enjoy what ever weather we like - even if it's something like wishing for snow to fall everyday throughout Winter.

[lassie23]

Generally agree. I think we have the right to enjoy what ever weather we like - even if it's something like wishing for snow to fall everyday throughout Winter.

In that case, three feet of snow on Christmas day will do nicely!

[BlueHedgehog074]

In that case, three feet of snow on Christmas day will do nicely!

That would be interesting. You could probably build your own snow-house with all that white stuff.

[EML Network]

I recall very well that this time last year the majority on here were gunning for a sluggish BUT COOL start to Winter but a much colder 2nd half, it never really transpired that way and I think by the time we got to Mid January it was clear that Winter wasn't going to deliver. 

 

IMO THIS Winter may well end up going a similar way everyone thought it would last year. 

 

I.E Unsettled mild and wet start, with a rapid cool down and several short lived cold snaps capable of producing snow anywhere from Mid Jan to March

[lassie23]

That would be interesting. You could probably build your own snow-house with all that white stuff.

Won't be a boring Christmas day stuck in front of the telly with the relatives, watching crappy Christmas specials, that's for sure! The relatives wouldn't be able to make it here for starters!

Edited October 1, 2014 by lassie23

[joggs]

I think the key thing with us weather freaks is no matter what preference of weather we have,the ups and downs in our excitement/feelings is more pronounced than a normal hobby lol.

I dont know about anybody else but if im forecast a winter wonderland and it fails to deliver,i keep out of wife n kids way for a while lol.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Won't be a boring Christmas day stuck in front of the telly with the relatives, watching crappy Christmas specials, that's for sure! The relatives wouldn't be able to make it here for starters!

Always kind of feel snow makes Christmas extra special, and without their being a proper white Christmas (with snow falling on the day itself) for quite a while now, I really hope this Winter can offer that. It would be cool!

[phil nw.]

Winter model watching really starts for me when the clocks go back 1 hr at the end of October.

The GFS starts coming out around 4 instead of 5pm-always a reminder along with the darker evenings that the build up of Arctic cold is well under way.  

[Thundery wintry showers]

I sometimes mention that with snowy weather, if the snow cover goes very icy then I find myself hoping for a temporary thaw to remove the ice before the next fresh snowfall, but that's not the same as getting tired of cold snowy weather and thinking, "I don't want any more snow for a while".  I don't know what it would take to get me thinking along those lines, but it would certainly be something a lot more severe than anything we got in 2009/10 or 2010/11. 

 

The "wanting disruptive weather is selfish" thing is something that has often got to me over the years, and I think of it as partly a misconception (you are perceived as getting enjoyment out of others' suffering, rather than enjoying a source of it because of other redeeming features and despite the suffering) and partly a normative thing- anything that is considered different to the expected norm is vulnerable to being regarded with suspicion and even as perverse in some cases.

 

I might struggle to get much snow this winter as I expect to be based in Exeter for most of it this time around, although they did get a fair dumping in December 2010 (and to a lesser extent when I was there back in 2009- two unexpected snowfalls on the 2nd and the 5th February and another on the 4th/5th March) and I should be up north for Christmas.  But as last winter demonstrated to an extreme, I should be more exposed to wild stuff from the Atlantic.

Edited October 1, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[cyclonic happiness]

I sometimes mention that with snowy weather, if the snow cover goes very icy then I find myself hoping for a temporary thaw to remove the ice before the next fresh snowfall, but that's not the same as getting tired of cold snowy weather and thinking, "I don't want any more snow for a while".  I don't know what it would take to get me thinking along those lines, but it would certainly be something a lot more severe than anything we got in 2009/10 or 2010/11. 

 

The "wanting disruptive weather is selfish" thing is something that has often got to me over the years, and I think of it as partly a misconception (you are perceived as getting enjoyment out of others' suffering, rather than enjoying a source of it because of other redeeming features and despite the suffering) and partly a normative thing- anything that is considered different to the expected norm is vulnerable to being regarded with suspicion and even as perverse in some cases.

 

I might struggle to get much snow this winter as I expect to be based in Exeter for most of it this time around, although they did get a fair dumping in December 2010 (and to a lesser extent when I was there back in 2009- two unexpected snowfalls on the 2nd and the 5th February and another on the 4th/5th March) and I should be up north for Christmas.  But as last winter demonstrated to an extreme, I should be more exposed to wild stuff from the Atlantic.

All I want is to have a snowfall to stop all the traffic so I can hear 'silence' in the town's streets.

 

I remember the great blizzard of 1990 when 2 feet of snow fell overnight, nothing could get through and there was no water or electricity for 4 days!

But most of all I remember the silence in the streets, except for the sound of children's laughter. That was amazing!

 

We've not come close to that since, maybe 2012 jan/feb, we managed to get around 12" of snow, but it came in a few separate snowfalls and meant the roads stayed clear the whole time.

2010 was useless here for snow. Whilst EVERYONE was celebrating on NW, in Warwickshire we stood by and watched 8 failed snowfalls, that dumped over a foot of snow not 10 miles from here whilst we got 0.5"  :-(

[bryan629]

Heres Terry Scholeys  thoughts for October weather, and also early winter thoughts...not too bad....courtesy of Gavs weather website 

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Edited October 1, 2014 by bryan629

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

You could stay this run of extremes started in 2006. From http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/82678-extremes-galore/

 

Warmest spring: 2006

Warmest and sunniest July: 2006

Warmest September: 2006

Warmest autumn: 2006

Sunniest November: 2006

Warmest April: 2007 until broken

Sunniest February: 2008

Warmest and sunniest April: 2011

Warmest spring: 2011

Wettest April: 2012

Wettest June: 2012

Wettest January: 2014

 

3rd warmest spring: 2007

2nd warmest autumn: 2011

2nd warmest April: 2007

3rd warmest October: 2006

2nd warmest November: 2011

2nd coldest December: 2010

3rd wettest year: 2012

2nd sunniest winter: 2008

2nd sunniest spring 2011

3rd dullest summer: 2012

 

Coldest winter since 1978-79: 2009/2010

Coldest spring since 1962: 2013

Coolest summer since 1988: 2011

 

Temperature CET records going back to 1659, rainfall 1776. That's a lot of extremes in a short space of time. Many other notable extremes and records also.

 

Now can add one of the driest and warmest Septembers ever (driest September on record here).

 

I wonder when the next extreme is coming and what form it will take?

 

Blimey, you're not wrong, what an impressive list of events there has been, surely that many extremes so close together must make the times we are living in and experiencing rare indeed. I suppose in a way we are lucky to be witnessing and living through such times. Would be very dull if our weather was the same and easily predictable. 

 

The mind boggles at what extremes may lay ahead for us but I do hope it is not too far away and of the white, wet and cold variety!   

[Summer Sun]

Latest thoughts from netweather on November & December

 

November

 

The air pressure anomaly currently forecast for November may be a very interesting one to those looking out for colder weather, as it shows northern blocking in place with pressure higher than average to the north of the UK, and lower than average to the south. This forecast model does suggest this will be a fairly weak anomaly, so on the ground a fairly average month is expected with both temperatures and rainfall close to the seasonal norm.

 

December

That northern blocking is still shown to be in place into December, and that equates to forecast temperatures that are close to or slightly below average across the UK. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be near to average generally with western Scotland, Northern Ireland and a good deal of Ireland currently expected to be slightly drier than average. Please note that confidence at this range is currently very low though.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[stewfox]

 

The next four to six weeks will be quite telling on the type of winter comming up... such as the polar vortex formation and location, ocean temperatures Mdo or tripole, the strength on ENSO ( which met office seem to be taking no notice of) . there was also no mention of the QBO...which is now flowing in an easterly direction, this is known to reduce the flow of our PFJ too... so a bit odd. because this aids northern blocking 

 

 

If only this was true wouldn't it being boring ie if we had a good idea how the winter will pan out by mid November

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

You could stay this run of extremes started in 2006. From http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/82678-extremes-galore/

Warmest spring: 2006

Warmest and sunniest July: 2006

Warmest September: 2006

Warmest autumn: 2006

Sunniest November: 2006

Warmest April: 2007 until broken

Sunniest February: 2008

Warmest and sunniest April: 2011

Warmest spring: 2011

Wettest April: 2012

Wettest June: 2012

Wettest January: 2014

3rd warmest spring: 2007

2nd warmest autumn: 2011

2nd warmest April: 2007

3rd warmest October: 2006

2nd warmest November: 2011

2nd coldest December: 2010

3rd wettest year: 2012

2nd sunniest winter: 2008

2nd sunniest spring 2011

3rd dullest summer: 2012

Coldest winter since 1978-79: 2009/2010

Coldest spring since 1962: 2013

Coolest summer since 1988: 2011

Temperature CET records going back to 1659, rainfall 1776. That's a lot of extremes in a short space of time. Many other notable extremes and records also.

Now can add one of the driest and warmest Septembers ever (driest September on record here).

I wonder when the next extreme is coming and what formit will take?

Thanks for taking the time to post this. That is quite a list and these extremes aren't going to stop. They will keep on coming. So what extreme would like to see next if we have to have one? Edited October 1, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[gsteruk]

I think peoples tatse for a snowy or frosty run up to Christmas starts to build as we get towards the end of October. Mine never really needs much building but a few cold nights certainly starts to get me more in the mood. Tonight here its actually feeling very autumnal, nice and crisp. Although the rain and gales that are due is quite interesting, I want it out of the way for cold and crisp to return!

Thanks for taking the time to post this. That is quite a list and these extremes aren't going to stop. They will keep on coming. So what extreme would like to see next if we have to have one?

 

Extremes for this year - it has to be snowfall for me. Amount of snow in a short period, or snowfall over a lengthy period. Snow very much the feature lol

[AderynCoch]

If we can't have cold and snow, then I'll have a nice calm Bartlett please.

Careful not to say that too often in the coming months. That's verging on pitchfork mob territory!

[Bobby]

Careful not to say that too often in the coming months. That's verging on pitchfork mob territory!

 

Anything but the dreaded Bartlett. I like my winter weather to be either be heavy rain and gales or freezing cold and snow. Almost as bad as the Bartlett is the mid-Atlantic high which also brings nothing weather.

[virtualsphere]

With you on the Bartlett, but I'd take a mid-Atlantic high....

 

[feb1991blizzard]

With you on the Bartlett, but I'd take a mid-Atlantic high....

 

 

 

Similar but quite in the league of this.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Similar but quite in the league of this.

 

 

DEC 2010.... The Three Degrees....."When Will I See You Again".... Maybe not in my lifetime

[AderynCoch]

With you on the Bartlett, but I'd take a mid-Atlantic high....

 

That's not a mid-Atlantic High, because it stretches right up to Greenland. A true mid-Atlantic High doesn't ridge that far north, allowing low pressure to set up shop near Greenland and a westerly flow to establish over the UK as a result.

 

I actually think a mid-Atlantic High can be even worse than a Bartlett for bland weather, as the latter can at least provide calm, sunny weather and clear nights providing it reaches far enough, but the Bartlett High is a real death knell for wintry prospects because it's liable to stick around and there's no easy route to cold. Mid-Atlantic Highs are boring, but there's always hope that a change is around the corner.

[Stormyking]

I would of thought this would be closer to an Atlantic high, I remember this little spell very well in March 2007 around the 19th and 20th, we had a big thundersnow event, first started as sleet, hail and snow with frequent Thunder and lightning and then became just heavy snow with thunder and lightning, and this was on the 20th

 

Edited October 3, 2014 by Stormyking

[Bobby]

Similar but quite in the league of this.

 

 

That's a monster 1070mb Greenland high extending south!

 

That's not a mid-Atlantic High, because it stretches right up to Greenland. A true mid-Atlantic High doesn't ridge that far north, allowing low pressure to set up shop near Greenland and a westerly flow to establish over the UK as a result.

 

I actually think a mid-Atlantic High can be even worse than a Bartlett for bland weather, as the latter can at least provide calm, sunny weather and clear nights providing it reaches far enough, but the Bartlett High is a real death knell for wintry prospects because it's liable to stick around and there's no easy route to cold. Mid-Atlantic Highs are boring, but there's always hope that a change is around the corner.

 

Yeah I was thinking of something more like this or this.

 

 

Quite they aren't quite as the stubborn as the persistent Bartlett slug at least. Can be frustrating though - often a northerly blast showing on the models turns into a nothingness mid-Atlantic high in reality.

Edited October 3, 2014 by Bobby

[cyclonic happiness]

DEC 2010.... The Three Degrees....."When Will I See You Again".... Maybe not in my lifetime

We never saw it here in the first place. 1/2cm of snow and everyone else was getting feet of the stuff :-(