Early winter hopes and chat

[bryan629]

Was the Glosea hinting at northern blocking for Winter 2013/14 this time last year and/or was that before it was upgraded?  I know the CFSv2 was pointing towards lots of high latitude blocking.

 

im pretty sure the Met predicted a below average winter late last autumn.... so can assume as part of their assessing would have included the modelling from Glosea.

[Gael_Force]

im pretty sure the Met predicted a below average winter late last autumn.... so can assume as part of their assessing would have included the modelling from Glosea.

 

There is a drop down archive that goes back several years.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

As you will see, last October update failed completely with the 500 height pattern and the temp forecast for the US was spectacularly wrong.

 

Worse was to follow for the November update.

 

[Duane S.]

Well if we are having such prolonged settled weather, the possibility of a wetter winter increases?

Not necessarily, who is to say the dry weather won't continue on through the winter? Or maybe we are indeed in a cycle of anomalously wet winters and dry warm summers?

The weather has shown time and time again how it balances itself out. Every time we start to think we can spot a new semi-perminent trend occurring following a very wet / dry / stormy / cold / hot / snowy / whatever spell, just at that point, so the weather flips to dispel any such notion of some large scale shift in the weather. It's all about cycles and cycles within cycles.

Edited September 21, 2014 by s4lancia

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That just looks very similar to last winter - can't believe that will happen again, but don't mild winters (snow free) come largely in pairs? - when was the last time we had a very mild winter followed by a cold one?

That doesn't ring true .It doesn't go mild to average to cold  

 

BFTP

[MP-R]

Watching the model output at the moment is nothing short of tedious. What has happened to September in recent years?

 

To be fair this is the worst September for model watching since 2009. At least 2010-2013 were a lot more varied.

[damianslaw]

Not necessarily, who is to say the dry weather won't continue on through the winter? Or maybe we are indeed in a cycle of anomalously wet winters and dry warm summers?

The weather has shown time and time again how it balances itself out. Every time we start to think we can spot a new semi-perminent trend occurring following a very wet / dry / stormy / cold / hot / snowy / whatever spell, just at that point, so the weather flips to dispel any such notion of some large scale shift in the weather. It's all about cycles and cycles within cycles.

 

Agree, I've just posted a thread about very dry and very wet periods.. and how the weather over the last 20 years in this respect has balanced itself out.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this winter ended up dry, drier winter tend to be cooler ones , thanks to anticyclonic conditions, exceptions have occurred such as winter 75/76 and 88/89, 89/90 (southern parts only thanks to the 'Bartlett high', but in the main the likes of winter 95/96, 05/06 the most recent examples of national wide dry winters were chilly ones as well.

 

The weather will always surprised us, it is all about cycles, but predicting the timing of the cycles is the hard bit. Everyone was caught out by last winter, not one long term forecast I read predicted a notably wet winter, and not one mentioned the wettest in England.

[Jax]

To be fair this is the worst September for model watching since 2009. At least 2010-2013 were a lot more varied.

Some of us would like a calm and extended period of calm weather too, it does not always have to be extreme, sure some on the south coast are begging for some of that right now, if it was extreme all the while I think even the hard fans would get fed up of it eventually.

[feb1991blizzard]

Loads of good pointers towards cold winter this year, the only one that worries me is we are only just the right side of solar max and convinced there will be some more activity to scupper a cold spell at some stage but also think an SSW is likely at some point, average but with some potential, at this stage a 12/13 more likely than a 09/10 but subject to change.

[feb1991blizzard]

BTW, I wont be able to upload analogue charts as I cant upload anything saved, I can post them direct from my composite analogue charts from the NOAA website but they disappear within a day.

[MP-R]

Some of us would like a calm and extended period of calm weather too, it does not always have to be extreme, sure some on the south coast are begging for some of that right now, if it was extreme all the while I think even the hard fans would get fed up of it eventually.

 

Never said anything about extremes, just some more variation.

[Froze were the Days]

Could do with the excessive SST's off the coast of Alaska/Canada/States to lessen...we all know this was the case late last Autumn and Gav quite correctly predicted a strong ridge in that area and cold into Canada and central/eastern States, unfortunately he got what was going to happen this side of the pond very wrong. Positives and minuses for me but a lot can change over 2 months or so.

[Yarmy]

For a climatic effect globally you really need VEI6 levels of SO2.

Which is a possibility for a collapsing 80 square kilometre caldera with an incomprehensible amount of water on it. However, there has to be sunlight for sunlight to be reflected and soon there will not be at those latitudes. An eruption next Spring would raise some eyebrows.

[Yarmy]

Significant genuinely disruptive snow is such a rarity in these lands that it surprises me that people are so terrified of it. It's hardly ever a real problem. For example, what's the most days anyone has had off school because of snow. In my school days it was 2 or 3 days in 13 years.

[Mark Neal.]

My school was on a hill in Oldham, so during January 2010, we had a week and half (about 8 school days) off because of the snow. It was also tied on to the end of the Christmas holidays so, we ended up with nearly four weeks off.

 

Not bad!

Even in Jan 2010 down in Oxford we had heavy snow 2 days into the new term after having 2 weeks off for Xmas. Ended up with another 5 days off due to snow... The following 2 school years not one day off due to snow.

[sundog]

Significant genuinely disruptive snow is such a rarity in these lands that it surprises me that people are so terrified of it. It's hardly ever a real problem. For example, what's the most days anyone has had off school because of snow. In my school days it was 2 or 3 days in 13 years.

I went to school from 1978-91.Think my school was closed for a week or so during jan 1979 though my memory isnt too good that far back. I had over a week off school in jan 82 which was cool cos that cold spell with plenty of snow started just as we were going back to school after the xmas holidays. Had some days off during  jan 84,85 and 86 if i remember correctly. Had most of the week off during the cold spell of jan 87,remember the headmaster on the intercom on the tuesday morning (heavy snow falling at the time) telling us all to go home and the school would be closed for the remainder of the week. Then came the mild run of winters and that was that.

[feb1991blizzard]

Significant genuinely disruptive snow is such a rarity in these lands that it surprises me that people are so terrified of it. It's hardly ever a real problem. For example, what's the most days anyone has had off school because of snow. In my school days it was 2 or 3 days in 13 years.

 

A week and a half in Jan 1987 and the same in feb 1991 although don't know exactly how long it was closed in feb 91 though as had flu and the week holiday followed that so nearly 3 week s  but false.

[feb1991blizzard]

This wont be happening for a long while now.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxl9mY-YSg4

[cheeky_monkey]

I don't know why schools close ...they never shut in Edmonton or Calgary and the amount of snow is worse every year than we would ever get here..its just barmy...kids still have to play outside it is only when it gets below -23c are they allowed in doors at lunchtime etc.

[summer fun]

A week and a half in Jan 1987 and the same in feb 1991 although don't know exactly how long it was closed in feb 91 though as had flu and the week holiday followed that so nearly 3 week s  but false.

 

I had a week of school in feb 91, remember it well because i was in my final year of junior school, probably the most winter fun i ever had. but also i remember it well because it was the most snow i have ever seen in blackpool  snowed for around 3 days and the snow drifts were very impressive for the area. Not seen anything like it here since. 

 

My hopes for winter would be something exactly like this again.

[TwisterGirl81]

I would love to have some epic storms like last year and some good proper snow thrown in, although proper snow for my area is pretty rare but maybe this year will be a repeat of 2010 - 11 winter   I'd love a white christmas where is snows on christmas day

[snowy weather]

I really miss the frost. Last year there was hardly any, maybe 3-4 frosty nights here. I love a sunny crisp morning

[gsteruk]

I would love to have some epic storms like last year and some good proper snow thrown in, although proper snow for my area is pretty rare but maybe this year will be a repeat of 2010 - 11 winter   I'd love a white christmas where is snows on christmas day

Can't beat a white Christmas can you? You just never know, we could get another event worthy of excitement, fingers crossed!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

In my day unless we were buried in snow  Jan 79, Dec 81, Jan 85, Feb 86, Jan 87 we still went to school as teachers never had to travel far themselves.  It was the cold that was more of an issue if the heating wasn't working.

 

BFTP

[Fozfoster]

In my day unless we were buried in snow  Jan 79, Dec 81, Jan 85, Feb 86, Jan 87 we still went to school as teachers never had to travel far themselves.  It was the cold that was more of an issue if the heating wasn't working.

 

BFTP

I remember frost on the inside of our bedroom windows in Jan 79 and Dec 81.My sister and i used to draw pictures in the frost with our warm fingers!! FOZ.

Edited September 22, 2014 by Fozfoster

[phil nw.]

In my day unless we were buried in snow  Jan 79, Dec 81, Jan 85, Feb 86, Jan 87 we still went to school as teachers never had to travel far themselves.  It was the cold that was more of an issue if the heating wasn't working.

 

BFTP

I can,t recall missing school in Winter 62-3.Transport no problem,we walked the 2 miles each way through the snow.

A different era then we just got on with it.