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Early winter hopes and chat


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

You say that, but the gas bill I got in March was almost half of what it was the year before.

 

I shudder at the thought of a winter like last year. Cool and damp in the house and I spent a fortune on heating with not even any decent snowy weather to show for it. I live in an old town house and they tend to get damp very easily so the heating has to be on near enough all the time. Was throwing away at least Â£60 a week into that meter! Not even a single flake of snow or decent frost to show for it :(

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

This winter will be mild like last year. No snowfall yet again in London as well  :yahoo:

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My hopes for this winter: mid-November to mid-December stormy and wet. Then a change to much colder, weather with northerlies and and N easterlies giving snow showers. A battleground snow event gives a foot of snow on Christmas day with a bitterly cold, frosty anticyclonic spell lasting the rest of the month. Then a return to stormy, wet weather until late Jan before another cold, snowy spell lasting into mid-February. Then more unsettled weather into early March before a trend to more mixed, "springlike" weather.

 

My predictions from my crystal ball: a mild, wet and at times stormy December with a brief cold snap early in the month. January, a fairly average month in all aspects with a frosty, anticyclonic spell but little snow. February, fairly wet but with a subistantial cold/snowy spell, temps average.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Oddly enough, despite this summer being more like 2013 than the 2007-2012 summers, the NAO and AO values were very similar to 2007-2012 and quite different to last year.

 

H1yEbod.jpg

Well spotted.Lets hope its stays in its current negative phase and more crucially into October and November. If that's the case come December we will be in for a totally different winter to last year ( ie ) drier and probably colder, but that will not take a lot of beating !

C

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Try telling that to the 1000s of people that got flooded last year, or suffered storm damage. But having read your previous posts I can see you are a WUM

 

A WUM for having a different opinion to someone else? Really? You don't have to like snow and cold to be a weather enthusiast. Many people such as myself would love a mild winter such as last year to reduce heating costs and bills, and for the fact that cold weather is just not pleasant. But that is our opinion, no need to bash it!

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

A WUM for having a different opinion to someone else? Really? You don't have to like snow and cold to be a weather enthusiast. Many people such as myself would love a mild winter such as last year to reduce heating costs and bills, and for the fact that cold weather is just not pleasant. But that is our opinion, no need to bash it!

Its not just about a different opinion though. Last winter was a real nightmare for a lot of people so it was utter nonsence to describe it as less inconvient than a dusting of snow would cause. Secondly if you care to read his previous posts they are written to deliberate antagonise people who want cold weather. And please point out where I bash him for wanting a mild winter, Im just pointing out that a little snow causes less problems than no stop storms do.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

I shudder at the thought of a winter like last year. Cool and damp in the house and I spent a fortune on heating with not even any decent snowy weather to show for it. I live in an old town house and they tend to get damp very easily so the heating has to be on near enough all the time. Was throwing away at least Â£60 a week into that meter! Not even a single flake of snow or decent frost to show for it :(

Hi Crewe, must have been awful. I lived in Cheshire for many years and witnessed some pretty mild winters but a least always saw one snowy day ! Funny enough whilst you lot were wishing for snow my home was buried under 300 cm of snow , up to the bedroom window. Fall out of bed into that lot after a few beers would never be seen again !

C

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Its not just about a different opinion though. Last winter was a real nightmare for a lot of people so it was utter nonsence to describe it as less inconvient than a dusting of snow would cause. Secondly if you care to read his previous posts they are written to deliberate antagonise people who want cold weather. And please point out where I bash him for wanting a mild winter, Im just pointing out that a little snow causes less problems than no stop storms do.

 

I don't think he is wishing floods again though, just mild weather.

 

I just don't like how certain cold weather fans think they are above everyone else, when they post ridiculous charts that are 2 weeks away showing a freezing cold spell, yet if someone posted a mild chart 2 weeks away they get heckled and labelled as a troll  :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

I don't think he is wishing floods again though, just mild weather.

 

I just don't like how certain cold weather fans think they are above everyone else, when they post ridiculous charts that are 2 weeks away showing a freezing cold spell, yet if someone posted a mild chart 2 weeks away they get heckled and labelled as a troll  :cc_confused:

I have never heckled anyone for posting a chart for 2 weeks plus away, be it cold or mild nor do I see myself as above anyone else either   :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Hi Crewe, must have been awful. I lived in Cheshire for many years and witnessed some pretty mild winters but a least always saw one snowy day ! Funny enough whilst you lot were wishing for snow my home was buried under 300 cm of snow , up to the bedroom window. Fall out of bed into that lot after a few beers would never be seen again !

C

 

Certainly wasn't nice. I moved in December time....the house had lay dormant for 5 months so it was tough warming the place up and ridding it of the damp. A nightmare in that kind of weather. Though at least I actually saw some thunderstorms this year....including an absolute cracker back in March.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

It's worrying  rom a cold perspective that the GLOSEA model is picking up such a strong +NAO this early, I rate this model highly and even though it's early days if next months update follows the same path it certainly can't be ignored. With regards to nino it's looking like a fairly weak affair as it stands now, so how this effects the pattern upstream is anyones guess at this stage and I would think a set up like last year looks unlikely with a weak nino. :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

It's worrying  rom a cold perspective that the GLOSEA model is picking up such a strong +NAO this early, I rate this model highly and even though it's early days if next months update follows the same path it certainly can't be ignored. With regards to nino it's looking like a fairly weak affair as it stands now, so how this effects the pattern upstream is anyones guess at this stage and I would think a set up like last year looks unlikely with a weak nino. :cc_confused:

 

The one consolation is that this time last year it was picking up heights to our N....which obviously never materialised.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Try telling that to the 1000s of people that got flooded last year, or suffered storm damage. But having read your previous posts I can see you are a WUM

Well said, the flooding here in the West Country was absolutely devastating to a lot of people, I expect they would have preferred a dusting of snow instead of having their property flooded for months on end which many homes were.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Make what you will of this from Matt Hugo

 

Mid-Sept update of ECMWF Seasonal model shows a mild and wet winter overall, not a whiff of blocking. Same from EUROSIP, we shall see...

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

I just don't like how certain cold weather fans think they are above everyone else, when they post ridiculous charts that are 2 weeks away showing a freezing cold spell, yet if someone posted a mild chart 2 weeks away they get heckled and labelled as a troll  :cc_confused:

And it's no different the other way round I'm afraid , can't say I like how some mild weather fans do nothing but shoot down anyone posting cold charts in winter, especially with no chart analysis to back up their views.

Constructive discussion of the charts I like seeing, be it mild or cold, people clearly posting to cause agro I can't be arsed reading and due to the ignore function thankfully I don't have to.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Make what you will of this from Matt Hugo

 

Mid-Sept update of ECMWF Seasonal model shows a mild and wet winter overall, not a whiff of blocking. Same from EUROSIP, we shall see...

 

Must mean some serious Northern Blocking from end of November till end off Feb...lol at this range i would not buy into any long range forecast!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

December 2010, that one is welcome back whenever it likes. If it had January 2013 and February 1994 after it even better :-)

 

 

This would be good for me a decent cold winter plenty of snow and at the end 21 years younger back to my 20s  :drinks:

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Keeping to the model thread title - my hopes are for more variety in the weather compared to last winter - which was consistently wet stormy and mild with nothing else. I always hope for a snowy spell at some stage, and also a cold frosty spell.

 

I've no idea how it may pan out - never do. I tend to gather my thoughts towards the end of November for what they are worth - but these are not usually based on any long range forecasts, just my gut feeling. Last year I think it is safe to say most forecasts were not predicting such a wet windy forecast, indeed some were suggesting a dry winter - always take them with a pinch of salt.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

I am hoping for variety in the weather this winter too, heavy snow, really heavy snow and blizzards!

Can we please start with snizzle and light snow first.... I'm with ya all the way snowy-house.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

LRFs, eh? Anyone got one that predicted a warm, stormy June, hot July, and the coldest August in 20 years. :)

 

The 2008-2012 period did coincide with the deepest solar minimum in 100 years, although I'm still yet to be convinced of the power of that particular factor. We are a couple of years or so from returning to similar levels of solar activity, so.....who knows?

 

We also have a volcano with a huge sinking caldera that could conceivably inject several million tons of ash and SO2 into the stratosphere in the next few days/weeks/months/years.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

This is the N. American multi-model ensemble page - no 500 height charts for some strange reason. There are very few cold pools anywhere on those charts - an artifact of continuing to model a moderate Nino. The IMME chart is an amalgam of the European models along with the NCEP.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmp2m_Seas3.html

 

The DJF Glosea is even worse than the one posted up thread.

 

2cat_20140901_z500_months46_global_deter2cat_20140901_temp2m_months46_global_det

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

This is the N. American multi-model ensemble page - no 500 height charts for some strange reason. There are very few cold pools anywhere on those charts - an artifact of continuing to model a moderate Nino. The IMME chart is an amalgam of the European models along with the NCEP.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmp2m_Seas3.html

 

The DJF Glosea is even worse than the one posted up thread.

 

2cat_20140901_z500_months46_global_deter2cat_20140901_temp2m_months46_global_det

 

Yes, I held off posting the DJF charts for fear of sending the thread into meltdown.

Edited by CreweCold
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