Early winter hopes and chat

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Potential 'Modoki' El Nino [central based warming in 3.4 region] looks very possible this winter which generally leads to southerly jet and blocking over Greenland

 

Not a bad outlook and many now are predicting a weak nino at 65%.  I think weak at very most and continued positive early outlook.

 

BFTP   

Edited September 14, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[gsteruk]

As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

[Barry12]

As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

 

Start of November.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As we are obviously too far out for anything close to a guess for winter, what kind of timescale do you think is from experience a good time to start making educated guesses? I realise even tomorrows weather is always open for interpretation lol

 

Now to Oct for reasonable early intentions and sometime in Nov for release

 

BFTP

[SMU]

Evening All,

 

Without perhaps writing the same as the last post I think the importance of not raising peoples expectations for a definitive winter forecast needs to be reinforced, of course respect to the people that attempt it & continue to do so, however for the UK which Is a tiny pixel on the wide screen TV of the globe it is almost pointless with low scores. The reason being is the change in location of the jet by just 2/300 miles can be the difference between a Wet/ Dry - Cold/Mild winter & this wont change.

We will never be able to macro manage our location for specifics against the background of variability across the globe. With that in mind & having an acceptance that this will always be the case what most credible long range forecasters are striving to achieve is a method in determining the probability of what the blocking will be for the DJF period & then equate that to a probability of Drier colder weather / wetter warmer weather. Within this though I would still never pinpoint the UK as an individual location, it would have to be Northern or north western Europe - to allow for a larger size of coverage to demonstrate the forecast integrity / accuracy.

 

Clownshoes like Madden should be auto ignored & I agree his name should be in the swear filter with an apt name applied.- Maybe Mickey Mouse.

 

There is also difficulty for the seasoned weather forecasters who are presenting their forecasts based onto historic composites - With pressure anomalies being grouped into years relating to strong modalities of Teleconnections like QBO / NINO etc, the crucial aspect of these composites is that the current feedbacks for these teleconnectors are the same as they were some 50 years ago...- (NOAA goes back to 1948 IIRC) - in current times where the sensational headlines of global weather is changing & becoming more extreme then NEW feedbacks need to be identified - Relating to Sea ice impacts & overall warmer global surface temperatures as these will influence the positioning of the jet, remember subtle impacts can have big impacts on locale...

 

I would say however whatever the signals these produce as far as composites from a neutral Nino & easterly QBO ( suggesting a more blocky winter ) its nothing more than suggestive excitement as the main event in terms of monitoring the stratosphere is still exactly 2 months away.

 

As highlighted above,one thing that doesn't seem to be changing though is the stratosphere it follows a very fixed path until we come to mid November where the direction of the forthcoming winter starts to get carved out - volatility in the early weeks with warm anomalies will be great news, however vice versa a developing very cold anomaly will of course pressurise any early blocky conditions by forcing a more westerly flow. ** remember there can be a disconnect between a cold stratosphere downwelling & a blocked surface **- but it doesn't last forever.

 

What would I look for in terms of precursors for EARLY winter in the next 6-8 weeks.

 

* Early vortex development & its sinuosity across 70N- as weak as possible please.

* Location of CORE lowest heights -  Ideally Russia for the depths of the vortex with chunks scattered in as many locales as possible

* Zonal Mean- Whether it can oscillate into weak easterly negatives early in the season or whether a positive westerly phase starts to develop

* SAI, snow advancement in October is what were looking for especially expanding West & south out of Russia, however any possible positive feedback this can give the UK in terms of blocking in & around Svalbard will only occur if the PV isn't strong.

 

 

So that's it.

 

8 weeks to sit tight, ignore all early forecasts that are giving specifics & take ANY winter forecast showing DJF 500MB anomalies with a pinch of salt as irrespective of what the composites show it all hinges on the stroatosphere.....................

 

S

Edited September 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

 

 

 

 

EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

 

Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

Edited September 14, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Due South]

Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

[Hocus Pocus]

Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

 

 

 

 

EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

 

Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

Nothing wrong in trying to assess what may happen though

 

With regards too the QBO, when you look at previous analogues for these there are many conflicting outcomes when  a  -QBO has resulted in the opposite happening and vice versa. There are no guarantees in any teleconnections albeit a strong PV more or less means a poor winter for the UK if it's cold your looking for, though as SM highlighted a cold set up albeit  not a prolonged one is still achievable.

[Guest]

Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

During the winter of 1962/1963 I was a scientific assistant at Heathrow Airport - I can't remember the date, most probably Feb 1963, now but during that time I do recall plotting an 'ob' for New Orleans - it was -5C, though given by the Americans in F with freezing rain - that stood out but other than that, can't recall a sausage.

[carinthian]

Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

Not sure about 1947, but I am fairly certain that similar pressure patterns in the Arctic and North Atlantic were similar in both North America and Northern Europe in the prelude to the winters of 67/68 and 62/63. Of course 62/63, the coldest since the 1700s in the UK. These two winters were also cold in North America but not exceptional compared to Northern Europe (62/63 ).

The similarities in both winters was the prolonged negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the build up to the winters (ie ) when the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelantic Low pressure system is not great , similar to much of this present month. If the NAO remains in negative phase for the rest of the Autumn, then the chances of a cold winter increases with the likelihood of negative AO dominating.

C

[SMU]

Very basic but just handpicked a few out based on likely ENSO and QBO state for forthcoming winter, years with weakish Nino to borderline ENSO neutral with - QBO. ENSO based on NINO 3.4 region

 

 

 

 

EDIT : LOL just seen steve's post above, he wont be a fan of my post then!!!!

 

Agree seasonal forecasting is in its infancy but surely the state of the stratosphere is driven by other things including the qbo, which we can predict with very high accuracy a long way out.

 

No issue with reviewing what has happened before as a 'possible' source of information, its good to see some of the metrics pointing to cold..... -

 

To get a really great winter everything needs to be loaded in terms of the dice.....

 

Lets hope we roll a double six!

[Norrance]

Not sure about 1947, but I am fairly certain that similar pressure patterns in the Arctic and North Atlantic were similar in both North America and Northern Europe in the prelude to the winters of 67/68 and 62/63. Of course 62/63, the coldest since the 1700s in the UK. These two winters were also cold in North America but not exceptional compared to Northern Europe (62/63 ).The similarities in both winters was the prolonged negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the build up to the winters (ie ) when the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelantic Low pressure system is not great , similar to much of this present month. If the NAO remains in negative phase for the rest of the Autumn, then the chances of a cold winter increases with the likelihood of negative AO dominating.C

1978/9 was another good example of cold Winters on both sides of the Atlantic.

[hillbilly]

Hi guys.  Can anyone tell us what the weather was like in the states during the winters of 47 and 62/63.

Just had a quick google and it appears that 1963 was quite bad in the states as here and in 1947 there was a huge snowstorm that had not been seen in 60 years

[carinthian]

1978/9 was another good example of cold Winters on both sides of the Atlantic.

Yep Norrance, classic Arctic Continental air mass winters. Some of those NEly produced some memorable snowstorms in both the UK and New England states/ Great Lakes.

c

[carinthian]

The miserable soggy, largely snowless and frost free winter you guys had to endure last season must be hard to beat in the worst ever winter for snow feast lovers. So on the law of averages winter 14/15 must surely be an improvement. I really hope the snow lies deep crisp and even and the frosts are cruel. You cold lovers deserve it after the lashing of wind and relentless Atlantic dumping on poor blighty.

c

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

 

[Paul_1978]

With the Rollercoaster of ups and downs in the model output thread this winter, I'll be invariably sticking to recording and watching the BBC late night forecast (previously called Weatherview, but now just Weather for the Week Ahead).

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

To be honest I Pay about as much attention to the met office long range models as I do with the CFS , they have been horrifically wrong over the years , which includes last year . Long range forecasting is a mugs game. We can all look for signals , ie QBO , SSI , El Niño/La Niña , solar activity , jet stream , and of course the very important stratosphere , and analogue years for pattern matching, then produce a forecast at the very end of autumn , but looking at computer models for over 3 months away is completely useless because no computer model can correctly forecast how all the pieces of the jigsaw falls into place , because say for example you have most signals pointing toward a mild winter , but Europe have a cold autumn with extensive Siberian snow cover ,(autumn 2012) then once that Siberian high forms it can be very difficult to shift , therefore can drive cold weather to out shores with the increased risk of southerly tracking lows . So lots of jigsaw pieces to fit together and only once we have the complete picture can we look at putting together an accurate forecast . Even then it's rarely right. As timing of events can be extremely volatile . Edited September 16, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[TEITS]

Im particularly looking forward to this winter. Reason being is due to personal reasons last winter, I didn't care if we had 10ft blizzards or mild/rain. Im also looking forward to being much more active in the model discussion thread.

 

It shouldn't be too hard to improve on last winter because I can't remember many winters when i didn't see a single snowflake.

[carinthian]

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

 

Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.

C

[tcc]

Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.

C

 Well that's a cheery thought then! let's hope it changes next month!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Maybe the UKMO know better than most. Remember on the 25th of October 2013, they presented their seasonal forecast for NOV/DEC/JAN with the likelihood of above average temperatures. This went against the grain predicted by Exacra and Vantage Weather who were going for the coldest winter in decades ( aka Daily Express ). It is a sobering thought that the Met Office may be right again with its latest Glosea Model and proven expertise. Lets hope it goes all pear shape for the sake of us cold lovers and the current -NAO remains in negative phase into next month.C

Fair enough but it wasn't going for a stormy winter , if remember righty it was going for a dry winter wasn't it ?

[carinthian]

Fair enough but it wasn't going for a stormy winter , if remember righty it was going for a dry winter wasn't it ?

Yes correct, however, it was going for above average seasonal temperatures, whilst some of the other agencies were going for bitter cold and snow. Whether its dry or stormy, above average temperatures is no good for us snow lover ! Still a long way off yet and I am fairly confident that last winters wash out is unlikely to be repeated

[carinthian]

Well that's a cheery thought then! let's hope it changes next month!

Yes tcc, I hope so as well. The encouraging factor at the moment is the holding of the NAO negative phase ( weaker Atlantic zonal flow ). We need to see this hold in October and then our chances of a colder season increases. Not all lost yet, but the latest Glosea Model does not make for pretty viewing.

c

[cheeky_monkey]

The Metoffice Glosea model looks absolutely horrific for winter....maybe even worse than last year

 

Looks like a cold snowy set up for Canada and the northern USA with a large positive heights around Alaska and low heights further east..would funnel cold air pretty much over the entire area east of the Rockies across to the east coast..would increase our chances of very mild winter to come.