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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

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Well autumn has officially begun and it's time for a new thread. Will we get a cracker to remember or will the fuse be blown? Let's see what storms autumn holds! :)

 

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You say Autumn has officially begun, but it hasn't. That will be the 23rd.

The only reason the 1st is used, is for tidy statistics when comparing seasons to previous years.

It is still Summer for another three weeks. :)

Nothing from Estofex today, considering the potential in the Balkan's/Italy

Severe-weather.eu have picked up on it.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-01092014/

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been looking at this weekend, looks like possibilities from sunday until tuesday at the moment, not exactly keen on storms (at least in my area) because l run allot of sensitive equipment. anyone think the GFS outputs will move further east?

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Not uk but Utah on holiday bad flooding here sections of interstate have been completely destroyed ,storms have dropped up to eight inches of rain ,200 mile detour to get to Vegas !!!!!!

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been looking at this weekend, looks like possibilities from sunday until tuesday at the moment, not exactly keen on storms (at least in my area) because l run allot of sensitive equipment. anyone think the GFS outputs will move further east?

 

Just spotted the potential from Sunday which continues to as far as I can see on GFS which is Wednesday. Temps warm up a bit too. I hope we can get a bit of excitement again from this possibility and get a nice active thread again :)

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Just spotted the potential from Sunday which continues to as far as I can see on GFS which is Wednesday. Temps warm up a bit too. I hope we can get a bit of excitement again from this possibility and get a nice active thread again :)

Indeed. I'm off to France on Monday and notice that Météo France and progging t-storms more or less countrywide from mid-week. Not surprising when it's getting to 27c. September can exceed all expectations!

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Yes up until now, we've had a pretty quite start to autumn, with maybe only one or two weak and very isolated thunderstorms so far. However there are hints for earlier next week.

 

The GFS is currently showing a bit of storm potential on Monday afternoon. Possibly something to keep an eye on as the week progresses?

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It's nice to see some potential back on the charts, even if it is just that at this stage. It seems so long since the last convective outbreak.

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Be awesome to see a late season thundery set up. Potential for a plume type scenario as we go into next week with LP close to the SW drawing in south to south easterly winds and some warm uppers for the time of year. 

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Be awesome to see a late season thundery set up. Potential for a plume type scenario as we go into next week with LP close to the SW drawing in south to south easterly winds and some warm uppers for the time of year. 

 

Indeed...if the outputs continue to show this it could be quite an interesting period! I cannot remember the last time I've had thunderstorms in September in my area to be honest.

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I know it's early days, but there are some interesting CAPE and LI values being predicted for next week:

 

 

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Indeed...if the outputs continue to show this it could be quite an interesting period! I cannot remember the last time I've had thunderstorms in September in my area to be honest.

I've just checked and it was September 14 2006 when we had the Leeds tornado! My friend and I were running a training event in a marquee and it got really scary...then there were more at the end of the month in both countries because we ran the same event in northern France and were delayed for hours coming back to the UK - similar temperatures and setup I think in northern France next week as back then...Dijon and Paris in the thunderstorms again for me!

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I've just checked and it was September 14 2006 when we had the Leeds tornado! My friend and I were running a training event in a marquee and it got really scary...then there were more at the end of the month in both countries because we ran the same event in northern France and were delayed for hours coming back to the UK - similar temperatures and setup I think in northern France next week as back then...Dijon and Paris in the thunderstorms again for me!

 

There was a tornado in Derby on the same day. I did not see it as lived about 5 miles north of the city at the time but the storm did bring some squally winds over my house for a time. I chased that storm from my house and saw some clear rotation as it headed towards South Yorkshire (and eventually Leeds). 

 

There were also some intense storms around on the evening of the 11th September 2006 that tracked north from around Bournemouth across the East Midlands. Some beautiful CG's and pronounced gust front as it crossed over the eastern side of Derby (where the western side saw nothing).

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We had a thunderstorm in September 2011 but I forget the date. I remember the September 2006 tornado very well - many a tree uprooted that day. Might have just been straight-line winds but in any case it was a fierce day.

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Another run from the GFS and another thundery end to the week. It's looking like Friday will be the peak day should this play out, and for once, the west appears to be getting the best of them!

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Another run from the GFS and another thundery end to the week. It's looking like Friday will be the peak day should this play out, and for once, the west appears to be getting the best of them!

 

Indeed...tasty Sept charts....but still too far out for my liking. A day or two ago showed thundery showers moving up mid-next week, but now it has been pushed back more towards the end of next week.

 

But...currently there at least seems to be some agreement that the trough will slowly edge closer...it will then depend on whether it weakens too much before it finally gets here.

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Let's hope it doesn't go like what the MO have just said "Unsettled next week, light rain Mon and Weds" lol

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Let's hope it doesn't go like what the MO have just said "Unsettled next week, light rain Mon and Weds" lol

 

As we move closer the trough seems to be getting modeled to affect us less and less, with a reinforcement of the current pattern even being hinted.... a way to go yet though.

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Wow, next week is still looking interesting!

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Reaaly hoping for plume convection / breakdown on Thursday night / Friday morning, I have a wedding to go to over the weekend and won't have the time to enjoy the show if it happens any later!

 

I have thursday and friday off so it would be PERFECT!

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I'm not buying in to it. At most, isolated showers look possible for southern counties as it stands now. It is diminishing with every day that passes, it'll probably diminish completely by Wednesday.

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wierdly the met office is going for settled weather or at least thats what the west midlands forecast is saying up till thursday. even suggesting a continuation on the 5/30 day forecast.

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