Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It's September 21st: how can it be detrimental to WInter?

 

as i see it, weather often goes in repeated patterns, hence long wet summers quite recently, or like this - a long dry anticyclonic spell.

id expect that when this spell ends, it would possibly be replaced by something totally different, which could also last several months. its fairly likely that an atlantic driven, low pressure dominated regime will replace this current anticyclonic one. if thats the case then it is plausible that it could last for several months and give us a winter like the last one.

yep, totally unscientific, and with alot of 'ifs and buts' but one that perhaps shouldnt be totally ignored.

of course theres no way of guessing when the current anticyclonic dry spell will end, back in autumn 75 we thought that similar rather dry spell (not as dry as this) would end soon. then we got the great drought of 76. lol.

[snow freak]

i don't think anyone can tell what this winter holds in store just yet.  the fact we are in and have been in a reasonably stable high pressure system for a while doesn't mean that we can only look forward to several months of low pressure atlantic dominated weather from now on.  The UK weather is not that predictable.  Yes it is a high possibility but then so is the likelihood of a winter pattern which delivers cold and snow.  the weather doesn't tend to produce highly reliable phases of weather patterns in the UK and everything is up for grabs at the moment.  I sincerely hope this winter doesn't provide us with a repeat of last winter though.  If it does, that's it...I'm emigrating.

[MP-R]

I know one shouldn't try and find patterns (even though sometimes there's too much coincidence) but if the last two dry Septembers are anything to go by, nature will balance itself out. The last prolonged dry spell in September similar to this month was in 2009, which was followed by a mixed October and a washout November. Before that one has to go back to 2002 which was very similar to 2009. 2003 was also very dry, October was mixed and quite chilly, then November was more Atlantic dominated. So it will be interesting to see how this autumn pans out.

[johnholmes]

It has to be repeated this year that looking for similarity in charts for any one month then another month and using this to try and predict what the weather is 1, 2, 3 months down the line does not work. Okay it may in 1 in how many occasions. Do a statistical analysis on it and it will tell you there is no connection. Further, why do not the main met centres not use this method? For the same reason, no one has ever found any scientific connection. Fun to speculate for sure but much much  less likely to be correct than the 30 day forecast using scientific methods is.

[MP-R]

It has to be repeated this year that looking for similarity in charts for any one month then another month and using this to try and predict what the weather is 1, 2, 3 months down the line does not work. Okay it may in 1 in how many occasions. Do a statistical analysis on it and it will tell you there is no connection. Further, why do not the main met centres not use this method? For the same reason, no one has ever found any scientific connection. Fun to speculate for sure but much much  less likely to be correct than the 30 day forecast using scientific methods is.

 

Basically what I said John: 'one shouldn't try and find patterns' even though there are too many to be ignored.

[Bobby]

This weather certainly is a barrel of laughs. It doesn't get any better than this. I could barely sleep last night so electrified with excitement was I as a weather enthusiast. If this continues much longer I may just spontaneously combust with the exhilaration of it all.

Edited September 25, 2014 by Bobby

[snow-witch]

Is it too early for Winter ramping? Not for me ( in my little Narnia head) - Jamstec is providing a nice cool chart for Winter 2014-2015 for us here in Winter! Haven't got a clue whether it is a reliable tool for forecast and am totally gormless when it comes to understanding what an El Nino Modika is but have grasped the fact that it is predicting things to be colder than they originally predicted! Sorry I can't post the chart - clueless on how to do that as well but easy to locate ( I put up the link but was told I couldn't post it!)

[mushymanrob]

This weather certainly is a barrel of laughs. It doesn't get any better than this. I could barely sleep last night so electrified with excitement was I as a weather enthusiast. If this continues much longer I may just spontaneously combust with the exhilaration of it all.

 

not sure what you expect, im enjoying this weather, it can stay like this all blinkin winter for me!

[IanR]

not sure what you expect, im enjoying this weather, it can stay like this all blinkin winter for me!

Same here as long as there are at least some vigorous storms from the atlantic too,  but as far as ice and deep cold goes I can cope for a week or two in january just to kill the insects,   then I want it banished again      

[mushymanrob]

Same here as long as there are at least some vigorous storms from the atlantic too,  but as far as ice and deep cold goes I can cope for a week or two in january just to kill the insects,   then I want it banished again      

 

youll get no argument from me on your last line! lol

[hec1]

this weather = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest this weather can carry on until the end of October, then winter can return with a vengeance

[MP-R]

To be honest this weather can carry on until the end of October, then winter can return with a vengeance

 

Autumn first please    I've almost forgotten was a cumulonimbus cloud looks like! Still nothing on the models to suggest I will see one anytime soon.

[conor123]

Had a month of Autumn here all August, 15c days and vicious showers for what seemed an eternity 

This month has been an equivalent of July 2010 or August 2008 here, overcast days and very muggy with consistent maxes between 17-21c.

Like last Autumn, the breakdown to cooler more unsettled conditions seems to be pushing back more and more, can't see any real change for some time looking at today's charts, just hopefully sunnier high's from the atlantic at last.

[knocker]

My daily wish. A life ban on emoticons. Two life bans if they follow PV.

Edited September 29, 2014 by knocker

[MP-R]

Well having had two cursed months, one that deprived us of a complete summer, and another that will deprive us of a complete autumn, I'm thrilled to see something interesting showing in the models from the weekend onwards. Certainly more changeable weather is afoot, feeling a lot more seasonal, and there is some really impressive northern blocking going on in some of the later charts. Fingers crossed this is a repeating pattern into the winter.

[Yarmy]

My daily wish. I life ban on emoticons. Two life bans if they follow PV.

 

Wouldn't 2 life bans be redundant? Sparing use of emoticons I like, it's over punctuation that irks me, e.g. Have you seen the 18z!!!!????!!!!

 

Since we now seem to be approaching a bit of a breakdown, I wonder how long it will take for all the moaning about the dry benign output to be replaced by bleating about the relentless Atlantic train.

 

 

I don't recall seeing as much ridging into Greenland as this on any of the output for the entire period Oct-Mar last year (although there were some weak heights in early October). 

[summer blizzard]

Last October actually saw northern blocking, unfortunately the trough never moved east so it chucked it down.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Getting a little bit excited about the forecasted change to unsettled and cooler conditions showing in the models. It will be nice to feel some fresh air and rain on my face.

Hopefully after this week we will be shot of this warm weather until spring next year at the earliest.

Edited September 29, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[sundog]

Come the weekend the Cavalry will be arriving at long last. :clapping:Time for some proper Autumn weather,thank god.

:hi: :hi: :hi:

                                                                                

[Bobby]

Yes at last it looks like Autumn will arrive later this week. Not a traditional zonal pattern but as long as we get some much needed rain. Can't wait to walk in the hills and feel that fresh, damp Autumn air and that lovely earthy, musty smell. I'll pretend this September never happened.

[Captain Shortwave]

Fresh/damp/musty, surely some of those words contradict each other 

It seems that the Atlantic will be back with a trough supported by height rises towards Greenland.... just like last year.

I don't think people would like to pattern match at the moment as we all know what happened last year

Mid October

 

Generic chart from Winter 2013/14

Edited September 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Fresh/damp/musty, surely some of those words contradict each other 

It seems that the Atlantic will be back with a trough supported by height rises towards Greenland.... just like last year.

I don't think people would like to pattern match at the moment as we all know what happened last year

Mid October

 

Generic chart from Winter 2013/14

Storms galore again perhaps.

[Chris K]

One noticeable feature I feel we have seen this Summer and first part of Autumn, is a trough cutting off to our SW drawing in air from an Easterly or South-easterly direction. Be it in slow-time whilst we enjoy extended settled weather, or repeated within days of each other.

 

In those settled spells, we were generally locked with either an Azore high nudging in from the SW, an Azore/Scandi high pressure linkage, or most recently, a scandi/euro block that we have enjoyed (or endured if you have hated it...).

 

I always get nervous this time of year because there always seems to be hints of Northern blocking that bit too early to be useful for the majority of snow fans. However, I will be watching the Jet with interest, as generally we have witnessed it go towards or North of the UK giving us this rather lengthy period of warmer than average months (except August perhaps - where the Jet seemed to aim itself towards Spain).

 

Perhaps we may get lucky sometime this winter. Hopefully if we do enter a more stormy spell (you would expect it to fairly soon as we move into October and the accompanying Northern Hemisphere cooldown), it won't get locked in like last year with storm after storm...

[Yarmy]

I doubt pattern matching with individual charts ever really works because you don't know what the underlying atmospheric state and drivers are (i.e. all the acronym soup SSTs, ENSO, QBO, etc, etc). The following brought record temps to Wales and Scotland in Nov 1946:

 

 

 

I daresay such a chart in 5 weeks' time would translate into a torrent of towel-flinging at the surface.